Since 1990, 14 of the 29 Super Bowl champions were the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. That includes five of the past six teams to finish the playoffs hoisting the Lombardi trophy.
That's why the San Francisco 49ers aren't content with just earning a playoff berth, as they did on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Los Angeles Rams. The Kyle Shanahan-led squad may have stumbled, at least temporarily, out of the top seed in the NFC playoff race, but it can regain its place at the top with a strong finish to the season.
"We've got a pretty good record, and we feel good about where we're at," Shanahan said after Sunday's loss to the Atlanta Falcons, "and that is cool we're in the playoffs because that was our goal, to get in that tournament. Now that we're in it, now we want the best situation possible in that tournament and all we can do for that is win these next two games."
That's exactly what NFL Network analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, sees happening based on the data available and her hundreds of thousands of simulations. The 49ers, currently sitting at the No. 5 seed, have the highest chance (41.8 percent) of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to Frelund's data.
Frelund also ran simulations on the 49ers' next two games, featuring opponents that San Francisco will need to beat to secure that top seed in the NFC. The Niners beat the Rams on Saturday in 59.9 percent of her simulations and then go on to knock off the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 in 54.4 percent of her simulations.
The 49ers' chances of reaching the Super Bowl as the No. 1 seed are 24.2 percent, according to Frelund. Only the New Orleans Saints have a better chance (30.2 percent) among the NFC squads.
The chances of San Francisco reaching the Super Bowl drop to 15.7 percent should it enter the playoffs as a Wildcard, making wins over the next two weeks even more important. Again, only the Saints have a better chance (21.0 percent) in this scenario.
Frelund writes the following about the 49ers:
"San Francisco is the only team that completely controls its ability to earn the top slot, so long as it wins out. Defensive pressure has been a constant and consistent source of strength. No front has had more disruptions (defined as getting within a 5-foot halo around an opposing quarterback) than the Niners. The back and front of the defense have been working well together, resulting in a 58.2 opponent passer rating on deep passing attempts (third in the NFL), with two picks and three TDs allowed on such plays. The pass defense helps insulate the team's Super Bowl chances from dropping off too much in the wild-card scenario. Further, Next Gen Stats shows that San Francisco's pass-catching targets are averaging 3.3 yards of separation on deep attempts this season (most in the NFL and 1 yard ahead of the next closest team). With that kind of separation, Jimmy Garoppolo is completing 56 percent of deep passes, best among passers with 25-plus such attempts."
