Clay projects the NFC West to be one of the league's toughest divisions in 2026. He has the 49ers finishing third with an estimated 9.5 wins, behind the Los Angeles Rams at 13.2 wins and the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at 11.2 wins.
Despite the projected third-place finish, San Francisco would still qualify for the playoffs as the NFC's seventh seed. In Clay's league-wide projections, that would set up a road matchup against the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round.
According to the projections, the 49ers have a win probability of at least 50 percent in only nine games, which helps explain the projected win total. Clay also forecasts San Francisco's offense to finish third in the NFL in passing yards and eighth in rushing yards.
At quarterback, Brock Purdy is projected to throw for 4,182 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions while adding 277 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.
Running back Christian McCaffrey is projected to once again lead the ground game with 1,149 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Clay also forecasts McCaffrey to contribute 80 catches for 695 yards and five touchdowns.
Among pass catchers, veteran wide receiver Mike Evans—one of the 49ers' biggest offseason additions—is projected to lead the team with 925 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Third-year receiver Ricky Pearsall is expected to finish second with 830 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
Tight end George Kittle is projected to appear in only 11 games, recording 55 receptions for 596 yards and four touchdowns. The projection may be affected by Kittle working his way back from an Achilles injury.
Rounding out the top five projected pass catchers are veteran receiver Christian Kirk with 341 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and rookie De'Zhaun Stribling with 326 receiving yards and two scores.
Defensively, linebacker Fred Warner is projected to lead the 49ers with 149 total tackles, while defensive end Nick Bosa is expected to lead the team with nearly 11 sacks as he returns from an ACL injury.
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