It's remarkable to reflect on the past: in the lead-up to the 2021 NFL Draft, one of the questions on many people's minds was whether the 49ers would use their first-round pick on Alabama's Mac Jones. Instead, San Francisco traded up and picked Trey Lance.
Now, with Brock Purdy injured (a "turf toe variant" plus shoulder concerns), Jones is the man for Week 2 at New Orleans.
So for fans: this is a chance to see a "what-might-have-been" finally on the field, but under different circumstances. The offense won't look identical to Purdy's, but Shanahan, the staff, and more importantly, the team believe Jones can manage it.
This will be Jones' 50th start in the NFL, and at least we can agree that he is an upgrade to last year's QB2s, Brandon Allen and Joshua Dobbs.
Where the 49ers Are Right Now
Before diving into keys to victory, here's what's going well (or at least better) for San Francisco, and what still needs to be locked down:
- Defense: Though last season ended with many defensive struggles (especially late, in big moments), now under Robert Saleh, the unit in Week 1 vs Seattle looked more disciplined. They held the run relatively well (3.2 yards/carry), made key stops, and limited explosive plays.
- Special Teams: This remains the biggest lingering concern. The kicking game in particular—with Jake Moody—was shaky. Moody missed a relatively "gimmee" short field goal (27 yards) and had another blocked, although you could blame the O-line on that one. Those miscues cost the 49ers expected points (some analyses estimate they lost 11.2 expected points by special teams miscues vs Seattle).
- Kicker Situation: Moody has been waived. Eddy Piñeiro was brought in to fill the role. Piñeiro has a solid track record (career FG% of 88.1% before joining SF; made 22 of 26 last season), though consistency, especially in high-pressure situations and from distance, will be under scrutiny.
Keys to San Francisco's Victory
On Offense
- Balanced attack, leaning on McCaffrey - With Mac Jones in at QB and without George Kittle (injured) and a questionable Jauan Jennings, the 49ers will need to rely more heavily on Christian McCaffrey as both a runner and receiver. Keeping defenses honest with play-action or misdirection off his involvement will help open up passing lanes. But also, a better use and performance from Brian Robinson Jr. will be needed to keep McCaffrey fresh.
- Quick reads, safe throws - Jones isn't Purdy's improviser. He's more pocket-oriented. Avoid forcing throws into tight windows. Get the ball out on rhythm. Use short-to-intermediate passing to build confidence. Minimize turnovers. He has a decent deep ball, and with a suspect Saints' secondary, it could be a good time to test it.
- Protect the QB against pressure - The Saints will be looking to test Jones early—collapse the pocket, heavy blitzes, disguising where the pressure comes from. The offensive line must sustain blocks; backs and tight ends must chip and help; receivers need to get open quickly. Will Trent Williams be healthy and effective this week? It all starts there.
- Exploit mismatches in the passing game - Kendrick Bourne is back, and Jones has prior chemistry with him from the Patriots days. Use that chemistry. Use different personnel groupings to confuse the Saints' secondary, especially with Julian Blackmon out for the year. Get guys like Pearsall and Valdes-Scantling, or even Moore, involved if possible. The key here will be Jauan Jennings' health and effectiveness. Is he ready for a full game load?
On Defense
- Shut down the run first - New Orleans has historically leaned on the ground game to set up play-action. If the 49ers' front seven can win in the trenches and limit yardage on early downs with Alvin Kamara, the Saints will be in long second downs or forced into passing. Week 1 showed promise in limiting explosive runs; making that the theme will help.
- Force turnovers, or at least hurried/confused decisions - Since Spencer Rattler may be slower to adjust than Sam Darnold, whom they faced in Week 1, applying heat and pressuring him, forcing throwaways or mistakes will swing momentum. Also, defending the tight end, Juwan Johnson, over the middle passes, and being disciplined in coverage will matter.
- Stay stout in the red zone and third-downs - The 49ers cannot allow the Saints to extend drives with soft spots. Make them earn points. Close off seams, get stops on third down, red zone tightness.
On Special Teams
- Field goal reliability - Piñeiro needs to be solid—no misses from within "expected" range. Pressure will be magnified. If the offense stalls in scoring range, field goals must be converted. No hesitation about trusting the veteran.
- Kickoff and punt coverage & return discipline - With Moody gone, penalties or misalignments will haunt SF. Ensuring coverage units don't give up big returns and that kicking units execute properly (including hang time and placement) will be key.
- Avoiding game-swinging mistakes - blocked kicks, botched snaps, and shanked punts — all of these have bitten the Niners in recent seasons. In tight road games, special teams often decide field position and can be difference makers. Clean execution.
What the Saints Can Exploit (Upset Potential) to pull off an upset
New Orleans will try to make the following work:
- Pressure Mac Jones early, force mistakes - Brandon Staley was last year with the 49ers, and is now the defensive coordinator in New Orleans. On Week 1 the Saints blitzed 35.1% (tenth-highest in Week 1) and finished with a defensive EPA of -0.11 (11th-best in Week 1). If Jones is shaky in the first quarter or two, the Saints could get momentum. Blitzing, bringing unbalanced fronts or blitzes off the edges, might force hurried throws or turnovers.
- Targeting SF's weakened receiving corps - Without Kittle and possibly missing key receivers, SF's pass catchers beyond McCaffrey and Pearsall will be tested. The Saints may overload zones over the top or test mismatches in coverage.
- Establish the run, then play action - If SF defends the run well for a few drives, the Saints might try to get chunk plays off play-action or misdirection. Additionally, sustained drives will help keep SF's defense off the field.
- Special teams miscues - SF's special teams have shown cracks. If New Orleans can get good field position off returns, block or pressure the kicker, or force a turnover in those third phases, it can tilt the game.
- Red zone efficiency - If the Saints can get into scoring range but settle for field goals, that's okay; but if they can punch it in for touchdowns against SF's red-zone defense, they can stay in the game even if the 49ers' offense struggles early.
Will the Special Teams Woes End? Is Piñeiro the Answer?
In short:
- Yes, Piñeiro gives optimism: Career 88.1% FG conversion is the fourth best all-time, a solid track record. He's worked before with current special teams coordinator Brant Boyer (Jets, 2021). That familiarity helps.
- But it won't be perfect right away: Transition might include a couple of nerves, or shaky in close kicks, or field goal protection/snap/waggle issues (something Moody sometimes suffered from).
- What to look for in this game: Field goals inside 45 yards, extra point consistency, and no blocked kicks or wildly errant kicks. If Piñeiro delivers those, that could be a game-changer for the 49ers in what could otherwise be a tight road game.
Prediction
If the 49ers execute a well-balanced offense, stout run defense, minimal turnovers, and special teams that don't cost points, they will win this game.
The margin might not be huge, not because of Mac Jones' starting, but more because of the injuries on offense and the unknowns on Special Teams. Still, the 49ers have enough defensive identity and remaining offensive weapons to pull away late if they impose their will.
If the Saints are going to upset, they need early momentum, mistakes from SF, and to make SF pay in the red zone or via special teams.
The 49ers will win this one 24-14.
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