The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2025 season as betting favorites to win the NFC West. That might surprise some, given the team's massive offseason roster overhaul, which saw several veteran contributors depart. But with the NFL's easiest schedule, San Francisco's path to a division crown looks more favorable than its rivals'.

On Tuesday, NFL analyst Brian Baldinger joined Bay Area radio station 95.7 The Game and pointed to one key factor in determining the 49ers' chances of winning the NFC West—running back Christian McCaffrey.


"If McCaffrey looks like he did two years ago, I think San Francisco is going to win the division," Baldinger said. "I think they're going to be that good."

Two years ago, McCaffrey captured NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors after racking up 2,023 scrimmage yards and 21 total touchdowns. But 2024 told a different story. Injuries limited him to just four games, where he posted 348 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns. His absence was a major factor in the 49ers' 6-11 finish.

Baldinger emphasized McCaffrey's unique impact on quarterback Brock Purdy and the entire offense.

"I just think he's that much of a difference-maker, and he's that type of talent," Baldinger continued. "And the offense, whoever Brock is throwing to, it will change if Christian McCaffrey is giving you 100 [rushing] yards a game. If he's giving you 100 [rushing] yards a game and then 100-plus total yards a game, like he did two years ago, then I have much fewer reservations about this football team."

While McCaffrey has been healthy throughout the offseason, he did not appear in any preseason action, leaving uncertainty around his 2025 form. Fans aren't sure what the 49ers still have in the running back, and Baldinger isn't sure the team knows yet, either.


"None of us know," Baldinger said. "I don't believe Christian knows. I don't believe [head coach] Kyle [Shanahan] knows. I don't think John Lynch knows. I don't think anybody knows until he gets 10, 15 carries into the game on Sunday."

To reinforce the backfield, the 49ers traded for former Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr., who is expected to serve as McCaffrey's backup. Still, Baldinger expects San Francisco to lean heavily on its star runner early.

"I'm giving the majority of the work to McCaffrey to start," Baldinger commented. "Now look, if you get a 12-play drive to start, you're going to rotate McCaffrey at some point in those 12 plays. But I'm giving as much work to McCaffrey to start this year to let him build some timing with the offensive line. Nobody's had any work in the preseason, so I'm giving him all the work I can to start the season.

"We kind of know Brian Robinson is going to be the backup and all that. His role is defined. Now, it might become a bigger role, depending on what McCaffrey gives you, but I'm giving as much work to McCaffrey as I can to get him started, to find out what he is and what he has."

The 49ers' 2025 campaign kicks off Sunday with a divisional showdown against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.




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