The outcome?
Frelund projects the 49ers to finish with nearly 10 wins (9.9, to be exact), which would be enough to secure the NFC West crown. Only three teams earned higher win projections—the Philadelphia Eagles (11.0), Washington Commanders (10.2), and Detroit Lions (10.0).
"The Niners' fourth-place finish last season turned into a real W for Kyle Shanahan's squad," Frelund noted, "at least in terms of how the league's scheduling formula works, with the biggest threat among fellow 2024 fourth-placers on the 2025 slate being the Bears -- and they don't come to town until Week 17, by which time there should be plenty of clarity around this season."
As for the rest of the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams trail closely behind San Francisco with a 9.7-win projection, followed by the Seattle Seahawks (8.1) and Arizona Cardinals (8.0).
"As of now, San Francisco doesn't have back-to-back games in which it is not favored to win, even factoring in all the defensive turnover this offseason," Frelund added.
The 49ers lost several key defensive contributors this offseason, including Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Maliek Collins, and Leonard Floyd. They used their 11 draft picks to replenish the roster.
While it may take time for the defense to find its rhythm under returning coordinator Robert Saleh, San Francisco benefits from having the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, giving the team a solid opportunity to grow and contend.
H/t to Grant Cohn of Sports Illustrated for the find.
Related News
More San Francisco 49ers News
-
49ers face tougher NFC West as Rams land All-Pro CB
The San Francisco 49ers were already bracing for another demanding NFC West race after sharing the division with two playoff teams from this past season — including the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. With the Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams both projected to... -
49ers expected to receive 'big offers' for Mac Jones from NFC team
The NFL Scouting Combine kicks off this week in Indianapolis, marking the unofficial start of serious offseason trade discussions. With representatives from all 32 teams in attendance, trade conversations will intensify, and the San Francisco 49ers are expected to be at the... -
3 Defensive Free Agents the 49ers Should Target This Offseason
Defense has long been the identity of the San Francisco 49ers. From dominant pass rushers to opportunistic secondaries, the formula has remained consistent: pressure quarterbacks, control the line of scrimmage, and force turnovers. But maintaining an elite defense in today's... -
49ers expected to target Super Bowl-winning cornerback in free agency
Speculation surrounding the San Francisco 49ers' secondary intensified at the NFL Scouting Combine after Dan Graziano and Ben Solak of ESPN reported that the team could explore a trade involving starting cornerback Renardo Green. Graziano estimated there is an 80% chance the...