Just when things seemed like they couldn't get worse, the San Francisco 49ers turned in one of their most careless, ineffective performances of the season while also stretching their home losing streak to eight games, dating back to last season. Can the Niners snap their home losing streak against an angry Los Angeles Rams squad that was also just embarrassed at home? Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.



Los Angeles Rams


The Los Angeles Rams appeared out-matched and overwhelmed as seven-point favorites and Matthew Stafford was shaky and ineffective in a 16-28 home loss to a streaking Tennessee Titans team that was playing without Derrick Henry.

After nine weeks, Los Angeles ranks 4th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 26.2 percent, 2nd in offensive DVOA at 20.7 percent with a 3rd ranked offensive pass DVOA at 44.8 percent and 10th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -3.4 percent. The Rams defense is rated 4th in defensive DVOA at -9.4 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -6.7 percent and 14th rated defensive rush DVOA at -13.5 percent.

Matthew Stafford is 2nd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 849 and 1st in total QBR at 69.7 with 23 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, and a 68.2 completion percentage. LA's offensive line is 4th in run blocking with 4.75 adjusted line yards and 3rd in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 4.5 percent. The Rams' defensive line is 12st against the run with 4.00 adjusted line yards and 12th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.8 percent.

The Rams have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 5.7 and are 3-5 ATS and 5-3-1 to the over/under.

Andrew Whitworth, Von Miller, Matthew Stafford and Darrell Henderson Jr. are questionable for Week 10.


San Francisco 49ers


Self-inflicted wounds, including fumbles and stupid penalties, poor tackling from a porous defense and overall pathetic effort helped make Colt McCoy and Christian Kirk look like all-pros and James Connor look like Barry Sanders in a 17-31 loss where the Cardinals dominated the Niners for most of the game.
San Francisco ranks 9th in total weighted DVOA at 13.5 percent, 6th in offensive DVOA at 13.1 percent with a 8th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 26.0.percent and 3rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at 3.5 percent. The 49er defense is rated 17th in defensive DVOA at 1.1 percent with a 25th rated defensive pass DVOA at 19.1 percent and 6th rated defensive rush DVOA at -21.0 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 15th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 303 and 22nd in total QBR at 48.9 with 8 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 66.2 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 14th in run blocking with 4.32 adjusted line yards and 15th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.2 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.51 adjusted line yards and 25th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.9 percent.

The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 0.7 and are 2-6 ATS and 5-3 to the over/under.

Mike McGlinchey is done for the season, Mohamed Sanu, Tavon Wilson and Dee Ford are out, Josh Norman is probable, Marcel Harris, Jimmie Ward, Deommodore Lenoir and Jimmy Garoppolo are questionable for Week 10.

Prediction


Before the season started, the line for this game was 49ers -3, and we would not be surprised at all if so-called "sharp" bettors perceive this line to be an overreaction and all the value on the San Francisco side. Those who might be considering backing San Francisco in this spot might also point out how Kyle Shanahan has done well against Sean McVay's Rams, having won four straight against the Rams, including three straight up wins as an underdog. But let's not forget that during the Cleveland Browns' 2017 winless season, the sharps kept insisting on Cleveland being undervalued and perceiving value on the Browns and they kept taking 'L's. Many pro handicappers were on San Francisco last week even before Murray was announced out, and we saw how that turned out.


While there is little doubt that all of the betting value resides on taking the points with San Francisco in this spot, it is difficult to trust San Francisco's inconsistent offense that just lost a starting offensive lineman and porous defense that cannot tackle and appears to be so desperate that Josh Norman remains on the roster. And until the Niners are able to display even a modicum of aptitude at Levi's stadium, it is hard to trust betting on them in Santa Clara, particularly against one of the better teams in the league.

It may be square and we may very well take the 'L' here, but we are not going to overthink this one. With all of the upsets last week and the books killing the public in Week 9 after the public had a solid start to the season, maybe the tide is turning, but sometimes when it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck, and we cannot in good faith back Kyle Shanahan and a San Francisco team that appears consistently incompetent at Levi's Stadium. We are done waiting for San Francisco's latent talent to emerge and are willing to accept that maybe they just aren't as good a team as many thought at the beginning of the season and maybe Kyle Shanahan isn't the genius as many had anointed him, regardless of how much of a buy-low spot that the market might suggest this is.
Similarly, the Rams have had their worst losses at home this season and have performed better on the road where they are undefeated. And with the possibility of Von Miller being inserted into the line up this week, we cannot justify fading Sean McVay and this Rams team after an embarrassing loss.

Pick: Rams -4

2021 Season ATS: 4-4

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