The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated San Francisco 27-9 on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The 49ers are one of just three two-win teams remaining in the NFL. Both the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals lost on Sunday but have stronger strength of schedules than the 49ers.
Strength of schedule, not head-to-head results, are used to determine tiebreakers when it comes to draft order.
How high the 49ers actually select will be determined by the rest of the season and their final record. San Francisco will face the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, and play the Seattle Seahawks twice, including a matchup on Sunday, to close out the season.
ESPN has more confidence in the Cardinals to finish with the top overall pick than the 49ers, according to its Football Power Index (FPI). Arizona, by the way, has swept San Francisco this season. ESPN predicts the 49ers to finish with the No. 2 overall pick.
H/t to Kyle Madson of Niners Wire for that find.
Below is the current draft order, based on playoff seeding (21-32), record, and strength of schedule (SOS) for all 32 first-round spots if the season ended today. Of course, the order of the bottom 12 teams will eventually be determined by the playoff results and Super Bowl winner.
| Team | W-L | SOS | |
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 2-9 | .455 |
| 2 | Oakland Raiders | 2-9 | .517 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 2-9 | .533 |
| T4 | New York Jets | 3-8 | .488 |
| New York Giants | 3-8 | .488 | |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-8 | .533 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-7 | .504 |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | 4-7 | .521 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | 4-7 | .545 |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | 4-7 | .554 |
| T11 | Green Bay Packers | 4-6-1 | .545 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4-6-1 | .545 | |
| T13 | Miami Dolphins | 5-6 | .467 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5-6 | .467 | |
| 15 | Tennessee Titans | 5-6 | .554 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-6 | .562 |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | 5-6 | .583 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 6-5 | .446 |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 6-5 | .467 |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | 6-5 | .541 |
| 21 | Washington Redskins | 6-5 | -- |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 6-5 | -- |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-4-1 | -- |
| 24 | Los Angeles Chargers | 8-3 | -- |
| 25 | Oakland Raiders (from Cowboys) | 6-5 | -- |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-3-1 | -- |
| 27 | Oakland Raiders (from Bears) | 8-3 | -- |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 8-3 | -- |
| 29 | New England Patriots | 8-3 | -- |
| 30 | Los Angeles Rams | 10-1 | -- |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-2 | -- |
| 32 | Green Bay Packers (from Saints) | 10-1 | -- |
* 21-32 based on projected playoff seeding, not record or strength of schedule
** Trades show the record of the origin team
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