Is a quarterback with only 29 starts in the NFL, who finished the 2013 season with the 34th best completion percentage among quarterbacks who played at least 25 percent of his teams' snaps and threw the fewest passes of any quarterback in the league worth a contract with an average of $18-$20 million per season?
In my opinion the answer is no.
When Jim Harbaugh made the switch from Alex Smith to Kaepernick in the middle of the 2012 season, the expectation was that Kaepernick could take the 49ers to a championship. How has that worked out for the 49ers?
So far Kaepernick has put up numbers that are very similar to those put up by Smith in 2011 and 2012. For those numbers, the 49ers gave Smith a three year deal averaging less than $8.5 million per year.
Many of Kaepernick's supporters will point to his four road wins in the postseason during his first two seasons as the starter. That is impressive until you realize that Mark Sanchez also had 4 road wins in the postseason over the same period, including a win against New England in which he threw three touchdown passes.
If Kaepernick is willing to play out this season on his rookie deal, a cap hit of roughly $1.6 million for 2014, I would roll the dice and make him do it. Kaepernick right now holds the leverage in negotiations, and if it should give him more leverage by winning the Super Bowl so be it. At that point, I've received exactly what I want.
I would have no problem giving him a Joe Flacco type deal in 2015, if he earns it. Let me explain.
In the offseason prior to 2012, the Ravens found themselves in a similar situation, and they ended up having Flacco play out his deal. He led the Ravens to the Championship and earned MVP honors. As a result, the Ravens gave Flacco a deal that averages $20.1 million per season.
What many don't realize is that in 2013, Flacco only counted $6.8 million against the Ravens cap number, with cap numbers of $14.8 million in 2014 and $14.55 million in 2015. That's a three year average of only $12.05 million. It is very likely that the Ravens will restructure Flacco's deal before the cap hit becomes prohibitive.
Of course in 2015, Kaepernick's contract would be slightly higher, however with the salary cap expected to increase rather quickly over the next few years, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that the 49ers can work a deal that would give Kaepernick the same percentage of the cap as Flacco's deal and being structured in a way that would not require gutting the roster.
Put yourself in the office of Trent Baalke or Paraag Marathe. What would you do? Is Kaepernick worth more than $18-20 million per year? I don't think so. At least not yet.