Trade For Kirk Cousins: I'm not a big fan of trading draft picks, especially when you own the second one of the draft. Unless you are going to get a haul from a desperate team that needs to move up for a quarterback, it makes no sense really to trade out of a spot that will give you one of the best players in the draft. That being said, most experts have been floating the idea of San Francisco and Washington swapping first-round picks and then throwing in a conditional pick in 2018. Assuming that conditional pick starts at a fourth-round pick, with the chance of moving to a second-round pick, I think that compensation works out fairly well.
Here is why I think the 49ers will do this deal: they are QB needy and no matter the amount of smoke that Lynch and Shanahan blow Kaepernick's way, it just isn't going to happen. He isn't a fit for the offense and frankly, it just feels like the time. Secondly, any quarterback the 49ers pick this season is a project and likely won't see the field until 2018 or even 2019. While I think following the Raiders model of building through the draft is smart, having a competent quarterback now is what is needed.
The draft commitment aside, the financial commitment is a steep one. While I think Cousins would take a longer deal for the security of the $20 million-a-year range, lest we forget this is a guy who is only 17-14-1 over the last two seasons and actually has a losing record for his career. If the deal irons out to around five years and $80-100 million with $47-50 million guaranteed, that is likely fair compensation as long as it isn't too backloaded. If Cousins doesn't pan out, the 49ers can move on after three years and likely look to the draft then.
Finally, Cousins just makes more sense than Garoppolo in two facets. First, why any team would send New England a package of high-round picks is beyond me. They are one of the best teams in the NFL and from a sheer competitive nature, why would another team strengthen that? Second, assuming father time doesn't catch Tom Brady, teams can have Garoppolo without having to give up draft capital as it is clear he will likely test free agency. The most likely scenario is Cleveland sending their second first-rounder to New England for Garoppolo and then committing to him long-term. It is the perfectly perfect Cleveland move but if it provides them with a potential franchise quarterback then kudos to them.
Sign At Least One Big Name Free Agent: We all know that teams overpay in free agency. Often teams are paying players coming off a big contract year and it doesn't make sense to use this model as a long-term solution to building a team. However, with the cap space, the 49ers have to use some of it on new players. Currently, there are not many players outside of Eric Reid on the team who really deserve an extension that would eat into the cap space. While ta lot of big names are going to hit the market, it makes sense to target players who fit the offense, but also players who mesh well with the addition of Cousins. While DeSean Jackson seems like a no-brainer, the 49ers already have a deep threat wideout in Torrey Smith and that is why I think the 49ers need to make a hard push for either Pierre Garcon or Alshon Jeffery. While I like Garcon a bit more due to the lack of PED suspensions on his resume, I think either would be a huge upgrade to our receiving corps.
If the team could make a splashy signing on the defensive side of the ball that would go a long way to helping it move in the right direction. Holes at linebacker, pass rusher and cornerback can be filled in free agency as well with manageable contracts that allow for youth to be established and groomed for future years.
Finally, the team needs to find the right number of second-tier role players to round out the depth chart. This team was woefully bad when starters went down and it showed later in the season. Free agency is a nice place to look to fill some of these depth holes as the 49ers should use the draft to find as many starters as possible.
Draft An Impact Player At 17: Here is where things can start to get interesting: the mock drafts are all over the place with respect to which player Washington is slated to take with this pick. It has the Redskins going with anyone from a tight end to a defensive lineman to a safety. An intriguing player who could be available in this area is Clemson WR Mike Williams. The 49ers need more talent on offense and Williams would give them that. Other players who are interesting here are Dalvin Cook, Corey Davis, or O.J. Howard. In a perfect world, the 49ers could trade down from this spot into the early 20s and pick up a mid-round pick to replace the pick traded for Cousins. There are many players in this area who would likely be a nice fit defensively for the team as that side of the ball needs to be addressed as well. In a draft deep in pass rushers, it would make sense to skip here and go explosive offensive talent, though.
Hit A Home Run In The Second Round: Let's assume that the 49ers go defense in the first-round and that a certain Stanford Cardinal is sitting there for the taking. While I think it is likely that New England will take Christian McCaffrey, as he fits their mold so well, he is an intriguing player who could help our team in many areas and could be a special player in our offense. While I don't know if he has 25 carries-a-game running back written on him, he could touch the ball 10-15 times a game and make a game-changing play here and there. If I am being completely honest, assuming the 49ers make the trade for Cousins, the perfect world scenario would be drafting Mike Williams at 17 and then McCaffrey with their second-round pick. With the addition of Garcon or Jeffery as a free agent, you suddenly have an offense that begins to look really scary. It might be a bit of a dream scenario, but it is fun to imagine in a pre-combine world in which we currently live.
Find Defensive Gems: This is a deeper class for defense and I think the 49ers can wait until the third-round, or later, to look at players at pass rusher and inside linebacker. The defense is going to be a multi-year rebuild anyway as there are some talent voids and aging players who need to be replaced. Ideally, if the 49ers could find another gem like Bowman in the third- or fourth-round and get a little bigger in the secondary, it would go a long way towards fielding a more competitive defense. Also, playing fewer snaps would probably help this group too and that area has already been addressed with the firing of Chip Kelly. While no plan is perfect and this plan is a little overly optimistic, the new leadership has already proven that it is willing to spend a little money and is also able to convince free agents to choose San Francisco over other teams that likely are closer to contention. While the 49ers likely will not have the luxury of driving tough bargains for at least a year, the team will have to be willing to overpay slightly to attract talent.