Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN lists 49ers among potential first-to-worst teams in 2020
Aug 11, 2020 at 8:17 AM
•
Videos are auto-populated by an affiliate. This site has no control over the videos that appear above.
The San Francisco 49ers had a remarkable turnaround from 2018 to 2019. General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan hope they have built something sustainable — a team that can compete for championships every year.
But what if it's not sustainable? What if 2019's success was a fluke?
The thought of the 49ers' impressive Super Bowl run being an abnormality is enough to kick off a heated debate among the Niner Faithful. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders,
in a feature for ESPN, listed San Francisco as a top candidate to go from first to worst. That means going from a division winner in 2019 to potentially fall to the last place in that division during the upcoming season.
Football Outsiders' metrics give the 49ers a 25.7 percent chance of finishing last in the NFC West. Only the Houston Texans have a higher first-to-worst chance within their division at 28.2 percent.
Schatz bases his reasoning on two factors. The first is the "Plexiglass Principle," the idea that teams that make a significant improvement from one year to the next tend to fall back a bit in the third.
"The 49ers are in line to hit the Plexiglass Principle hard," wrote Schatz. "They are the first team in the history of our DVOA stats (back to 1985) that improved by 20% on both sides of the ball in the same year. Veteran losses such as DeForest Buckner and Emmanuel Sanders won't help the 49ers fight that strong probability of a reversion."
Then you have the strength of the NFC West as a contributing factor. Schatz mentions the Seattle Seahawks having
Russell Wilson, the fact that under the new playoff scenario, the Los Angeles Rams would have enjoyed postseason play last season, and the potential emergence of a young and talented Arizona Cardinals team.
"The entire division finishes with an average winning record in our simulations," wrote Schatz. "It's not a ridiculous notion that the 49ers could decline a little bit and combine that with a bit of bad luck and go 8-8 -- and finish last in the NFC West despite being an above-average team overall."
Add to that Schatz listing the Cardinals as a likely worst-to-first team, and you can see how, in the analyst's opinion, things could get more challenging for the 49ers in 2020. Arizona, by the way, was listed as having a 20.8 percent chance of winning the NFC West during the upcoming season.
Facebook Comments
More San Francisco 49ers News
Six worst first-round draft picks in 49ers' history
It is less than two weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and the San Francisco 49ers finally have a first-round draft pick, after not having one the last two years. Who will they select? Will it be a defensive player? An offensive player? They could use help on the offensive line and in the secondary and defensive line. And they may also have multiple holes to fill a year from now.
Either way, the 49ers need to hit on these draft picks, especially in the early rounds, where they haven't always been at their best. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have some first-round misses, like DT Solomon Thomas and LB Rueben Foster. But are those the worst first-round picks in team history? Neither made this list, though some will argue that Thomas should be on it, mainly because he was taken
ESPN analyst: I 'dominated' mock draft for 49ers
Matt Miller, a longtime San Francisco 49ers fan and ESPN analyst, recently conducted a mock draft using ESPN Analytics' mock draft simulator. Proud of his projections, Miller shared the results on social media.
Basically DOMINATED this mock draft for the 49ers.https://t.co/j7ag09VRAY pic.twitter.com/COOE0M1eku— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) April
Potential 49ers defensive draft target visiting this week
Last week, it was reported that the San Francisco 49ers planned to host former Kentucky cornerback Andru Phillips on a pre-draft visit. NFL Network's Mike Garafolo confirms that the visit will take place during the upcoming week, which marks the final opportunity for such visits to occur.
Phillips will also meet with the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans this week.
Adding a noteworthy tidbit to the social media post, Garafolo mentions, "A likely second-round pick, though some evaluators have first-round grades on
Rapoport: 49ers send clear message to teams inquiring about Brandon Aiyuk
Ian Rapoport didn't offer much of an update on the ongoing contract negotiations between the San Francisco 49ers and their standout wide receiver, Brandon Aiyuk. However, the NFL insider emphasized one thing: The team is not entertaining trade discussions at this juncture.
Reacting to Aiyuk's decision to unfollow the 49ers on Instagram, Rapoport couldn't help but chuckle at the latest development. This practice has become commonplace among players who are unhappy with their contract situations. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel similarly took this action in 2022 before requesting to be traded just before the draft.
Things have yet to escalate that far with Aiyuk, but Rapoport sees his
