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Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance Thread

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Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I'd love all of these expert opinions that can judge a guy off of 3.25 games in the draft forum to lend their keen football minds to analyzing players that will be available in picks 100 through 200. I won't hold my breath though.

Meh, even QB guru Kyle Shanahan missed drafting Brock 6 times before nabbing him in the 7th. At most, a good GM is right (in the first round at least) about 30% of the time. There was an article back last year (or the year before) stating that for most first round picks - only about 30%-ish percent of rookies get a 2nd contract with their original team. Which means something like 70% (or something like that) are first round misses, and that percentages go down after as the rounds get lower. Point being, a blind monkey would probably do as good a job as any average GM or fan out there in picking players in the draft.

Kyle is a lot of things, but he's never been a QB guru. Where are you getting that from? He's a great play caller and designer, but not QB guru. As for everything else, what was your purpose in sharing that?

Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.
[ Edited by tankle104 on Apr 2, 2023 at 5:48 PM ]
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would of looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.
[ Edited by tankle104 on Apr 2, 2023 at 6:07 PM ]
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would have looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.

It ain't about being able to identify that kind of potential or talent, or spotting a diamond in the rough. Coaches that can do that don't exist. It is about seeing some traits and intangibles that can't be taught, and then teaching them the rest. I believe there is zero chance Mahomes would be the player he is today if he played for anyone other than Reid, just like I think had Alex Smith played his entire career under Reid, he'd be a completely different player.
Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would have looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.

It ain't about being able to identify that kind of potential or talent, or spotting a diamond in the rough. Coaches that can do that don't exist. It is about seeing some traits and intangibles that can't be taught, and then teaching them the rest. I believe there is zero chance Mahomes would be the player he is today if he played for anyone other than Reid, just like I think had Alex Smith played his entire career under Reid, he'd be a completely different player.

There is a lot of truth to what you're saying, I agree, but wouldn't being able to identify those traits be part of the process of being a great qb evaluator? It's Rare someone is special at that. Drafting is a crap shoot as it is, so I understand it's not an easy thing to do.

i think Mahomes would of been a stud in most situations but I do agree, probably not who/what he is today. At least not most situations. I think he would of been awesome here.

FYI - I'm not pouting or anything like that. I'm perfectly happy with where we currently are. I also love having Kyle as a head coach and Lynch as the GM. I Just don't think Kyle is great at drafting QBs. Lance may be the one that proves me wrong, who knows. Him or Purdy! I'll take either one if they become elite!
[ Edited by tankle104 on Apr 2, 2023 at 7:13 PM ]
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would have looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.

It ain't about being able to identify that kind of potential or talent, or spotting a diamond in the rough. Coaches that can do that don't exist. It is about seeing some traits and intangibles that can't be taught, and then teaching them the rest. I believe there is zero chance Mahomes would be the player he is today if he played for anyone other than Reid, just like I think had Alex Smith played his entire career under Reid, he'd be a completely different player.

There is a lot of truth to what you're saying, I agree, but wouldn't being able to identify those traits be part of the process of being a great qb evaluator? It's Rare someone is special at that. Drafting is a crap shoot as it is, so I understand it's not an easy thing to do.

i think Mahomes would of been a stud in most situations but I do agree, probably not who/what he is today. At least not most situations. I think he would of been awesome here.

FYI - I'm not pouting or anything like that. I'm perfectly happy with where we currently are. I also love having Kyle as a head coach and Lynch as the GM. I Just don't think Kyle is great at drafting QBs. Lance may be the one that proves me wrong, who knows. Him or Purdy! I'll take either one if they become elite!

Ok how about this, name some of the all time best coaches when it comes to QB drafting. It's tricky.
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would of looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.

It's not that easy and EVERY evaluator not working for KC also didn't see what Mahomes could be or else every one of them would have moved up for him just like Reid and the Cheifs did. You are making something that's EXTREMELY difficult out to be some walk on the parkl that Shanahan sucks at. Easy to armchair GM when you have 0 skin in the game, verrry different when your multi-million dollar job is on the line.
Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would have looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.

It ain't about being able to identify that kind of potential or talent, or spotting a diamond in the rough. Coaches that can do that don't exist. It is about seeing some traits and intangibles that can't be taught, and then teaching them the rest. I believe there is zero chance Mahomes would be the player he is today if he played for anyone other than Reid, just like I think had Alex Smith played his entire career under Reid, he'd be a completely different player.

There is a lot of truth to what you're saying, I agree, but wouldn't being able to identify those traits be part of the process of being a great qb evaluator? It's Rare someone is special at that. Drafting is a crap shoot as it is, so I understand it's not an easy thing to do.

i think Mahomes would of been a stud in most situations but I do agree, probably not who/what he is today. At least not most situations. I think he would of been awesome here.

FYI - I'm not pouting or anything like that. I'm perfectly happy with where we currently are. I also love having Kyle as a head coach and Lynch as the GM. I Just don't think Kyle is great at drafting QBs. Lance may be the one that proves me wrong, who knows. Him or Purdy! I'll take either one if they become elite!

Ok how about this, name some of the all time best coaches when it comes to QB drafting. It's tricky.

It is.. but so far he has none. Lol so I don't consider him great at it. Unless we hit on Purdy or Lance. You're right though, great coaches pass up/miss on great QBs all the time. Let's just hope he gets at least one right.

i will say though that I love the fact he is even trying.
  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 32,246
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I'd love all of these expert opinions that can judge a guy off of 3.25 games in the draft forum to lend their keen football minds to analyzing players that will be available in picks 100 through 200. I won't hold my breath though.

Meh, even QB guru Kyle Shanahan missed drafting Brock 6 times before nabbing him in the 7th. At most, a good GM is right (in the first round at least) about 30% of the time. There was an article back last year (or the year before) stating that for most first round picks - only about 30%-ish percent of rookies get a 2nd contract with their original team. Which means something like 70% (or something like that) are first round misses, and that percentages go down after as the rounds get lower. Point being, a blind monkey would probably do as good a job as any average GM or fan out there in picking players in the draft.

Kyle is a lot of things, but he's never been a QB guru. Where are you getting that from? He's a great play caller and designer, but not QB guru. As for everything else, what was your purpose in sharing that?

I think a lot of people consider him very good at developing QBs. Hence the QB guru label, or QB whisperer label. Look at all the QBs that have done well under his guidance - they are legion. He's also a great playcaller and play designer. There are articles all over the internet by folks who played in the NFL who consider Kyle one of the best QB developers in the game today.

I mean all I have to mention is Brock Purdy, and most people get my drift.

The draft is a crapshoot. Even the great bill Walsh made some boo-boos. So you belittling 49er webzone opinions, is somewhat ironic, considering even the best GMs can make mistakes. In, other words, considering the crapshoot that the draft is - the opinions of the webzone is just as legitimate as those of the experts.
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

Jackson was not 2017.

I keep mixing which came in when. Regardless, points same. If he was some wonderful special qb prospect identifier, we would have Mahomes etc or before signing jimmy he would have looked ahead and got Allen or Jackson or someone else.

It ain't about being able to identify that kind of potential or talent, or spotting a diamond in the rough. Coaches that can do that don't exist. It is about seeing some traits and intangibles that can't be taught, and then teaching them the rest. I believe there is zero chance Mahomes would be the player he is today if he played for anyone other than Reid, just like I think had Alex Smith played his entire career under Reid, he'd be a completely different player.

There is a lot of truth to what you're saying, I agree, but wouldn't being able to identify those traits be part of the process of being a great qb evaluator? It's Rare someone is special at that. Drafting is a crap shoot as it is, so I understand it's not an easy thing to do.

i think Mahomes would of been a stud in most situations but I do agree, probably not who/what he is today. At least not most situations. I think he would of been awesome here.

FYI - I'm not pouting or anything like that. I'm perfectly happy with where we currently are. I also love having Kyle as a head coach and Lynch as the GM. I Just don't think Kyle is great at drafting QBs. Lance may be the one that proves me wrong, who knows. Him or Purdy! I'll take either one if they become elite!

Exactly. We're in year 7 and Kyle's (and our) hope at the QB position is a Mr. Irrelevant with a bionic arm. And he didn't even find him.

Most HC's get half that time to find their FQB in this league.

Now, technically, the jury is still out on Trey so if he becomes that guy, I could see a good argument. But to date, this is a very real issue solely on Kyle...because Lynch ain't doing it.

Seems to me like some fans and some people in the FO are cool with "good enough" at the QB position. We can't even get a proper development of a QB that we spent a billion picks on and has a sky high ceiling.

I can't believe I'm agreeing with Grant and Stats but they weren't wrong on Stats' pod the other day. They broke a 22 yr old QB both physically/mentally (congrats to certain fans) and all but gave up after 4 games.

we got 50+ games of straight trash from Darnold and people (including Kyle) want to prop up 6 games lol and if you watch those games it ain't special…it's just better than the pure trash he's put out there for 5 yrs. Meanwhile we got 100 random passes from Lance and we can't talk about anything good from those plays (which there was). It's just all bad according to some.

for once I actually agree with this guys

Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by Giedi:
That's too harsh. I still think Trey can become a Brock 2.0 in the passing game. What is most disappointing to me is his lack of durability. How can you develop as a QB if you need game reps but are constantly injured and can't get the game reps needed to improve. What durability Trey has shown me so far is very similar to the durability that Jimmy has. We all know why ShanaLynch gave all those draft picks for Trey in the first place.

Limited sample size but TL is markedly worse right now

JG started 64% of the time
TL 21% of the time
even if TL started all 17 games next year, he would be at 58%, would still have work to do

for this I'm just counting games missed as QB1 due to injury

Wow! those are really bad stats for Trey. I hope Trey can stay healthy for the next 17 games. It starts with conditioning and goes on from there. If he has 17 healthy games as starter or as backup next year I'm confident he can improve to where he can challenge 2022 rookie version of Brock. Of course Brock, when healthy, is going to get better as time goes on too.

Obviously those are bad stats for Trey, he got hurt 2nd game of the first season he was supposed to start in.

His finger injury is just crazy bad luck - look at Russell Wilson, dude never missed a game in his career and one day his follow through hits a helmet and he's out. That's not durability based injury.

Now we don't know how he hurt his knee vs Arizona so it would be purely speculation on how it got hurt. But that's a durability based issue.

The ankle injury is just pure crap luck no different than Brock's UCL injury or Bosa's ACL 2nd game of his 2nd season. I remember people claimed he was injury prone at that point. He hasn't missed just one start since...and I have a feeling we overlooked Atlanta or he would've been available for that game too.

As John Lynch said, sometimes you hit a bad streak of injuries and then you stay healthy for years. Hopefully that's the case with Trey but having him run like a FB definitely won't help things so hopefully Kyle and Trey both adjust.

Yeah, the 49er injury issue is indeed half fluke and half preventable, in a sense. I mean its the NFL and players will get injured. But some players do adjust - somehow - and aren't injured for a long time. (The John Lynch example)

Going on what has happened versus what might happen, Trey's durability is questionable. How does Trey improve that? I don't think its anywhere as simple as improving his mechanics, for sure. Jalen Hurd never got healthy, and Pettis never got good. I think as a coach you have to factor that into your calculations going forward.

If I was coach and knowing I have two good QBs but they are fragile, I'm investing a ton on QB protections and tweaking my offensive system to protect them as much as possible like - no more QB powers for Trey and a deeper Tight End squad for Brock.

As for Trey, if he can just stay healthy - I think he can be a good QB in this league. He has the physical talent to do it. It's the six inches behind his ears that need to take the next level and he needs game reps for that. Practice is nice, but game reps are priceless for his development. If he doesn't get it and Brock does, I think its game over for Trey. From what little I've seen from Trey, I am very confident he can play in this league and at minimum he can be as effective as Brock.

I realize the thread has moved on but I'm behind.

Hurd had a history of injury from college, made a position change to lessen the beating and then suffered a serious back injury after a very promising training camp/first preseason game. He then suffered an ACL tear in camp running on the sidelines iirc the following season.

The situations aren't similar imo. I also wonder how much of Jalen's inability to stick after those injuries were mental(have to imagine the mental toll it takes on you where you just can't even get to a real game to show what you can do)

Pettis' issues had nothing to do with him staying healthy. He simply wasn't showing the coaches the type of mentality they wanted to see of someone with his talent.

Last I checked there have been 0 questions about Trey's work ethic or leadership abilities. In fact I find it funny how the locker room still loved Jimmy G so much even though he basically ghosted everyone once he was away from the team meanwhile Trey was rolling around on a scooter to get to team meetings and stick with the team after his injury and people act like he's a pariah or something.

It's really funny to me how the narrative on Trey is split. Every time I go back to rewatch his games I'm more encouraged for his future than discouraged and yet plenty of people here or twitter act like the guy is out there just shooting us in the foot every drive and the offense is garbage with him in there. Yet some of those same people had a ton of praise for Jimmy. It's super confusing to me.

At least Brock had just 1 type of tape and it was all wins and even the bad was in short supply and got fixed in crunch time outside of the obvious game. I really can't imagine being a 49ers fan right now and not rooting for the best of both players.
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
^^^ Sanu has his man beat for a TD

Do you know how progressions work?
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I'd love all of these expert opinions that can judge a guy off of 3.25 games in the draft forum to lend their keen football minds to analyzing players that will be available in picks 100 through 200. I won't hold my breath though.

Meh, even QB guru Kyle Shanahan missed drafting Brock 6 times before nabbing him in the 7th. At most, a good GM is right (in the first round at least) about 30% of the time. There was an article back last year (or the year before) stating that for most first round picks - only about 30%-ish percent of rookies get a 2nd contract with their original team. Which means something like 70% (or something like that) are first round misses, and that percentages go down after as the rounds get lower. Point being, a blind monkey would probably do as good a job as any average GM or fan out there in picking players in the draft.

Kyle is a lot of things, but he's never been a QB guru. Where are you getting that from? He's a great play caller and designer, but not QB guru. As for everything else, what was your purpose in sharing that?

Kyles history of drafting/not drafting a qb actually proves he's not very good at identifying great qb prospects. Let's just exclude Lance from this discussion for sake of argument.

the best ones he's ever drafted was Kirk cousins. We needed a qb bad in 2017 and passed up on numerous guys that went in the first round like mahommes, Watson, jackson. Etc all because he thought he could get cousins in the off season. If you're special at identifying that stuff - you wouldn't of passed up on those other guys in the first round, others noticied it and not him.

he's excellent at developing, scheming, getting the most out of them, but not necessarily at picking a prospect. I love him as our coach and want him here a long time, can't be awesome at everything!

honestly, there are some folks on here that would do a better job drafting than a lot of GMs.

That's called hindsight. Kyle was a first time HC with the whole draw to him being his system.

He knew that he was going to a team that had a TON of needs(we were AWFUL in 2016) and a ton of cap space. He knew if he waited he'd have Cousins as his QB a known product to him and someone he knew could run his system at a very high level.

He also came in late due to being a coach in the SB that season. You have a new staff coming in, having to meet your team and then get into draft prep when other teams are already far ahead of you in that situation.

Mahomes wasn't a prospect with no flaws. Easy to say he was the obvious choice that year but Chiefs actually shocked many by taking Mahomes as high as they did.

I don't blame Kyle for the move he made. I'd be a LOT more upset if we actually went into the draft looking to take a QB and took Trubisky. I find it hard to blame Kyle for wanting a sure thing without having to spend a top 3 pick on him.

Hindsight obviously we take Mahomes in a heartbeat...but so would Cleveland.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
^^^ Sanu has his man beat for a TD

Do you know how progressions work?

He's just mad because we called out Jimmy missing on plays all the time (as a multiple yr starter vet). That gets a pass though…Lance as a 21 yr old rookie for sure doesn't.
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