Evolution of the Quarterback Position

There is a collective belief system emerging in many who watch the NFL that the future is about dual threat QB's… that one can't win a Super Bowl without a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. This implies that the era of the traditional pocket passer who does not scramble for a lot of years or execute designed run plays, is over. This perception has become so strong that some are already judging Kyle Shanahan as arrogant if he doesn't pick Justin Fields. If there is hubris afoot, I believe it is in holding such a polemic stance. It is also potentially a psychic snowball I don't feel we want to get rolling should the Niners pick Mac Jones.

We don't know where this current trend will go. What we do know is that historically you must win from the pocket. Yes, there are the unicorns like Mahomes who can do both, but they are as rare as Tom Brady's. Josh Allen has one year of doing this. The jury is out on where this will go.

Gregg Cosell really dives into this issue in a recent interview with Rich Eisen. I think you'll find it more than worthwhile.

At 8:44 Rich Eisen asks him who his number 3 QB is after Lawrence and Wilson. Cosell immediately goes to Mac Jones then rambles off on a philosophical discussion that, I believe, is the biggest one in football at this time…"What is the balance between being able to play from the pocket and now having to play outside of structure." Cosell admits that he is not clear on where it is as are many other's in the league. Check this out at 8:44.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PhET_YDeEA&t=1s

While there is no question that this has been a trend started by Lamar Jackson and taken to another level by Mahomes, I do not think this story is over. I believe there are a number of reasons why it will revert to the "mean" and drift back to of the pocket passer qualities being more important than athleticism and running the football. Why?

It's a matter of physical, financial and other practical issues.

A quarterback's skill set and performance requires the most complex, integrated neuro-physical functioning of any position. Everything in the body must be functioning in harmony for optimal performance. When they get nicked up, ie. a little chink in the knee, or hip, or even the non throwing arm, their performance will tend to degrade. It might not show up right away, but each small hit accumulates damage, and over a number of seasons this will degrade their performance as a passer as well as a runner. Mahomes is already showing some of these early symptoms.

Secondly, is the issue of the of wise use of salary cap resources. A franchise QB is by far the most expensive and important player. At $30Million plus a year, that's a major investment, something like 1/6th of the cap. Every time a QB leaves the pocket he becomes a defacto running back, whose salary may be 1/10 to 1/5 of the QB. Sure that adds a new dimension to the offense which is highly desirable, but the important question remains, "Is that a wise use of resources?". How will this approach play out over the long term?

Strategically, every time that QB leaves the pocket and becomes a running back, all the safeguards the league has created to protect the most valuable asset in the NFL are gone. He is now subject to the same violent hits a RB is.

Each exposure is increasing the chance of a season ending, or even career limiting or ending injury. It's a matter of odds over time. We all know what that means to any team. The season usually goes into the tank, and everyone starts looking to next years draft.

Brady did it again this year and proved that a traditional pocket QB can win superbowls. Yes, Mahomes was amazing in what he did, but they still lost.

The human mind is always looking for the next more, better, different to get excited about. New memes always arise and history shows us the excitement of a collective movement in a potentially new, breakthrough direction. And, things that are enduring last, and the trend is always back to the mean. You must win from the pocket. That has been the mean for many decades. The most desirable traits will continue to be accuracy, ability to read defenses, go through progressions, pocket presence, will remain the most important criteria in determining who is a franchise QB.

I believe this is something all of us might want to ponder on as we think about what the Niners do at number 3.

have a reply.

Your argument would work if mobile QBs correlated to high injury rate.

And yet, the reason we are drafting a QB high is because our statue Quarterback who throws from the pocket gets injured every other year

but yes, I am sure Mac Jones and his dad bod will be relatively injury free on our San Francisco 49ers. The team with one of the Worst injury luck in history

Football is a team sport and is played at the highest level when all aspects of the team are playing well.

I admit that emphasis on the skeddadling QB can be exciting, and a winning formula----for a while.

IMO, a team probably won't reach it's potential with such a QB.

Steve Young is as far as I would go in the direction of a scrambling QB. But he didn't come into his own until he learned to be a great pocket passer.. The Niners were a machine when he did.

This running twenty yards behind the LOS and everywhere else is not pretty football to me. When they are headed in the right direction, I cringe--hoping essential members remain attached.

To each his own.

Just an observation, but if a HC/GM is really interested in protecting their QB from injury, build OL first. Actually the GREAT Lombardi, not the tiny ones, said, "build your LINES first." Then you don't have to hire a kyle murray. And we all saw what happened in last yrs SB when the best QB in yrs was running for his life behind the MATADOR OL that KC had. And as i recall, he and KC lost. Actually despite Mahomes efforts, KC lost. Altho injured, their OL was putrid.

Scheme-wise, scramble drills, designed rollouts, and play action boot passes, kind of limits and may retard a QB's pocket skills growth because it limits (I think) to half field reads. Vs a regular pass play where he has to scan the entire field.

The rules do protect a QB from hits when he slides and that has given QB's a little bit of leeway to get penalties when they do get out of the pocket and scramble. But the penalties aren't always called. I.e. the hit to Jimmy's head in the super bowl. I think the risk to the QB getting injured on a designed run (For example in a RPO) play is still too great in my mind vs the benefit of scoring or getting yardage. Maybe you get a first down or a TD, but what if you lose your QB in the process?

Intangibles vs Athleticism - I think the analysis starts with the super bowl winning QB's and how they have won. However I don't think it ends there though, because the rules are continuing to evolve to address the CTE issues. I mean the CTE issue has changed how field goals are set up now. As long as the CTE issue remains, look for the rules to continue to make football more of a touch vs contact sport. At some point there is diminishing returns with regards to athleticism ROI vs Intangibles ROI even if football becomes 100% flag football. Where that is, I have no clue.

There is absolutely no correlation between being a mobile/scrambling QB and getting injured. I dont understand why people continue to run with this idea as fact, when its not even close to being that.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
There is absolutely no correlation between being a mobile/scrambling QB and getting injured. I dont understand why people continue to run with this idea as fact, when its not even close to being that.

Perhaps not acute "injuries," but they absolutely do not have the sustainability of pocket passers. That more than anything is the issue with building your franchise around a run-first QB.

You can't hit QBs anymore so why leave all the 1st downs on the field? The QB position is not evolving, it is adjusting to all the new passing game rule changes.

the major rule change protecting sliding QBs even if the defender is the middle of the air makes getting a mobile QB more important than ever. Teach a QB to mix in a fake slide every now and then and it becomes even more dangerous.

Originally posted by jimmy3233:
the major rule change protecting sliding QBs even if the defender is the middle of the air makes getting a mobile QB more important than ever. Teach a QB to mix in a fake slide every now and then and it becomes even more dangerous.

This was how Arizona beat us in week 1

Originally posted by LayTheWoodall:

Originally posted by jimmy3233:
the major rule change protecting sliding QBs even if the defender is the middle of the air makes getting a mobile QB more important than ever. Teach a QB to mix in a fake slide every now and then and it becomes even more dangerous.

This was how Arizona beat us in week 1

exactly! justin fields and trey lance can easily be coached up to do the same and be even deadly than midget murray.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Just an observation, but if a HC/GM is really interested in protecting their QB from injury, build OL first. Actually the GREAT Lombardi, not the tiny ones, said, "build your LINES first." Then you don't have to hire a kyle murray. And we all saw what happened in last yrs SB when the best QB in yrs was running for his life behind the MATADOR OL that KC had. And as i recall, he and KC lost. Actually despite Mahomes efforts, KC lost. Altho injured, their OL was putrid.

That is a good formula but it's harder to build a solid pass protecting line now because of the style of offenses that most colleges run. The linemen just aren't asked to hold blocks like they once were since so many of the plays are motion plays with rollouts and options. The few that can pass protect get gobbled up quickly since most teams still covet them. Having a QB with the ability to scramble is more important than it used to be. That doesn't mean he has to run all the time but it's nice to have that ability. Say what you want about Kap or Alex but some of their most exciting plays were runs for big yardage or for TDs.

Originally posted by Ensatsu:
Your argument would work if mobile QBs correlated to high injury rate.

And yet, the reason we are drafting a QB high is because our statue Quarterback who throws from the pocket gets injured every other year

but yes, I am sure Mac Jones and his dad bod will be relatively injury free on our San Francisco 49ers. The team with one of the Worst injury luck in history

Dad bod has been relatively healthy compared to fields.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
There is absolutely no correlation between being a mobile/scrambling QB and getting injured. I dont understand why people continue to run with this idea as fact, when its not even close to being that.

I just found this article which validates what you say. The reason people believe this is that it is counter-intuitive.

https://www.filmstudybaltimore.com/new-study-quarterbacks-that-run-most-are-not-injured-most/

According to a study done last year there was no statistical difference in injuries between mobile and non-mobile QBs. There was also virtually no difference in win percentages, total yards, QB ratings and any other performance metrics between the two types which surprised me just as much. One would think the mobile QB's who are now the rage would excel in performance stats. Mobile QB's also have twice the fumble percentages compared to traditional pocket passers. But, they have fewer turnovers. Logic would say running QBs would be less proficient as passers and therefor have more interceptions, which seems not to be the case. Traditional pocket passers have more TD's. One might think that all those option runs near the goal line would result in the opposite. So, lot's of wrinkles to this consideration.

One thing for sure, this is a lot more complex than we know. It is also a work in process. The study mentioned above stated that the jury is still out on whether running QB's will have shorter careers. We also can surmise that defenses will continue to evolve and will find the weaknesses that mobile QB's have. A bigger question for me is whether the sudden emergence of the the Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen types, who were once considered unicorns will continue. A good dose of humility is required here. We can see certain things, assume some trends, but almost certainly this whole issue will evolve in ways we can't project.