If healthy(er), are the 49ers a win now team?

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

Yes back when we had a probowler pushing up the middle in buckner. Sanders on the outside and people were less familiar with our scheme.

This team is not the 2019 team it's significantly worse.

I swear people forget history we just played this scenario out 8 years ago. We had a good run up to the sb then steady decline after that which resulted in the years of rebuild ing.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

You are not sure why people look at recent past performance as an indicator of what a team is capable of?

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

Yes back when we had a probowler pushing up the middle in buckner. Sanders on the outside and people were less familiar with our scheme.

This team is not the 2019 team it's significantly worse.

I swear people forget history we just played this scenario out 8 years ago. We had a good run up to the sb then steady decline after that which resulted in the years of rebuild ing.

2019 is not a good indicator of what this team is capable of so we should look to 8 years ago instead?

The team fell off a cliff when they fired Harbaugh for Tomsula.

I, for one, feel this is a Super Bowl winning team, when healthy. 2019 was not an aberration. There were missing players due to injury who, had they been playing (DJ Jones) or had been healthier (Dee Ford), our foot would have stayed in KC's a$$ and we would have taken the Lombardi (a la Tampa Bay). Having said that, our OL needs better, fresher blood. I don't care if Joe is calling the signals, if you can't protect him, throwing from the seat of your pants is extremely hard.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

You are not sure why people look at recent past performance as an indicator of what a team is capable of?

Correct, especially if it's been two years ago

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

You are not sure why people look at recent past performance as an indicator of what a team is capable of?

Correct, especially if it's been two years ago

That seems silly.
It was 14 months ago, not two years ago.

This new pessimism schtick is no better than the optimism schtick.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:
2019 is not a good indicator of what this team is capable of so we should look to 8 years ago instead?

The team fell off a cliff when they fired Harbaugh for Tomsula.

I just see a lot of parallels with the way the coaching and qb development. It was jimmy's first year teams didn't have the film. It was kaps first year teams didn't have the film.

We were still decent the next year but not as good and by the third year the wheels started coming off.

It's pretty similar. In both superbowl runs the team was very good but also fairly lucky in having lots of turnovers and game changing things go their way.

It kind of parallels the rams also. When mcvay and goff weren't figured out they went on a run but they have been on a slow decline also.

Originally posted by richterkbelmont:
"Not with this OL". Dumb, dumb fans who believe that unit can't be improved this offseason. Most likely people who can't even understand how the salary cap and team building works.

lol you think that Buckner trade was a, great trade. how can you call others dumb?

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

You are not sure why people look at recent past performance as an indicator of what a team is capable of?

Correct, especially if it's been two years ago

That seems silly.
It was 14 months ago, not two years ago.

This new pessimism schtick is no better than the optimism schtick.

this team has a lot of question marks.

OL needs major help, C, G, and hopefully not T. We have no DBs right now. Can Jimmy stay healthy? New DC as well, it's not a guarantee he will be great.

then you have all the "if's" that need to happen. If Jimmy is healthy / plays good. If Bosa comes back fully healthy. If AA goes back to playing like he did in '19. If Kinlaw plays well this year. If we resign many of our important FAs, and we have like 34 total. and the biggest if is, if we can stay healthy...

It's gonna be a brand new roster almost on defense. definitely not the same talent that we had in '19, at least no where close on defense.

The NFL is a lot like the lottery. Every season is a new challenge and there aren't any guarantees which players are going to have a good year and which ones will struggle. Sports is like that, with of without injuries.

Originally posted by TheGore49er:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

You are not sure why people look at recent past performance as an indicator of what a team is capable of?

Correct, especially if it's been two years ago

That seems silly.
It was 14 months ago, not two years ago.

This new pessimism schtick is no better than the optimism schtick.

this team has a lot of question marks.

OL needs major help, C, G, and hopefully not T. We have no DBs right now. Can Jimmy stay healthy? New DC as well, it's not a guarantee he will be great.

then you have all the "if's" that need to happen. If Jimmy is healthy / plays good. If Bosa comes back fully healthy. If AA goes back to playing like he did in '19. If Kinlaw plays well this year. If we resign many of our important FAs, and we have like 34 total. and the biggest if is, if we can stay healthy...

It's gonna be a brand new roster almost on defense. definitely not the same talent that we had in '19, at least no where close on defense.

some people just don't get it. that's not even a pessimistic view either. it just reality

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by TheGore49er:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
"Buy low on the 49ers

What a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?

The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.

San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season."

So basically exactly what I posted. 9-7 if the ball bounces are way and 6-10 if we are unlucky again

That seems silly because they went 13-3 in 2019 when they had average luck with injuries.

Normally, I would agree with Woo. However, there's going to be so much turnovers this off-season that it's going to be a brand new team (almost). And they got a new defensive coordinator and we don't know how he will fare .

yeah, not sure why some peeps are stuck in 2019

We can be 100% healthy and suck.. nothing is guaranteed

You are not sure why people look at recent past performance as an indicator of what a team is capable of?

Correct, especially if it's been two years ago

That seems silly.
It was 14 months ago, not two years ago.

This new pessimism schtick is no better than the optimism schtick.

this team has a lot of question marks.

OL needs major help, C, G, and hopefully not T. We have no DBs right now. Can Jimmy stay healthy? New DC as well, it's not a guarantee he will be great.

then you have all the "if's" that need to happen. If Jimmy is healthy / plays good. If Bosa comes back fully healthy. If AA goes back to playing like he did in '19. If Kinlaw plays well this year. If we resign many of our important FAs, and we have like 34 total. and the biggest if is, if we can stay healthy...

It's gonna be a brand new roster almost on defense. definitely not the same talent that we had in '19, at least no where close on defense.

some people just don't get it. that's not even a pessimistic view either. it just reality

Yeah realistically if they have an average draft we lie somewhere in the 6-9 win range.

They need to get a probowl rookie corner, and averAge nfl starter rookie corner, a 5 sack dlinemen, and a couple 4 sack guys for depth.

This could elevate the defense to carry us back to 10+ wins.

On offense I feel like we would need 3 probowl starting olinemen for jimmy to maybe get us to 10 wins.

The defensive scenario seems more likely even if it seems unlikely.

10+ wins just seems like it will need a lot.