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Originally posted by Derbucher:
Trend #2 I would say is completely off and might be a good idea to have removed or edited. he has drafted multiple WRs in the second round this alone would make the second statement false

Trend #2 is mainly about TEs/RBs.
[ Edited by Heroism on Feb 12, 2020 at 10:44 AM ]
Also, I don't have the exact data with me right now, but another trend is that Shanahans have never drafted an interior OL in the first two rounds. And that's like 20 years of draft data.
[ Edited by Heroism on Feb 12, 2020 at 10:50 AM ]
  • thl408
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Originally posted by NCommand:
I love Lombardi. What's the skinny on this one?

Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.
Originally posted by Derbucher:
I think you did a great job on your post except for this section some of it was really confusing or flat out not true. Trend #2 I would say is completely off and might be a good idea to have removed or edited. he has drafted multiple WRs in the second round this alone would make the second statement false, Joel is not the only time he has selected an offensive player in the second round, Pettis and Deebo would like a word. I also think 40% percent is not rarely when it comes to offensive first round draft picks.

Thank you! Yeah, that was a synopsis of what the Athletic put together on Kyle's tendencies from a few years ago as a way to try to guesstimate what he, as a HC, might do in the draft. And they did hold up too at that time.

For instance, you noted #2. He still hasn't drafted a RB or TE earlier than round 3. That's still true today.

Trend #1: He rarely drafts Offensive players in RD 1 --- still true today
Trend #2: He NEVER drafted RB or TE before RD 3 --- still true today
Trend #3: He does draft Offense in RD 3: --- still true today
Tight Ends: The last three TEs drafted by Shanny (Reed, Hooper and Kittle) have all run 40's faster than 4.75 (combine average for TEs), he values athleticism (pSPARQ), route running and catching over pass blocking. --- still true today
Wide Receivers: Shanny has lacked recent success here as most of his best WRs were already drafted (Julio) or through FA (Garcon). Dante Pettis looks like he can be solid at least --- epic fail on Pettis and Hurd so far. Homerun with Deebo. Mostly true today.

But yeah, after three full drafts, we probably could edit this more a bit and add a few more, huh?
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 12, 2020 at 11:00 AM ]
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I love Lombardi. What's the skinny on this one?

Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.

I wish we took classes together in college. Great synopsis. Thank you.
Originally posted by Heroism:
Also, I don't have the exact data with me right now, but another trend is that Shanahans have never drafted an interior OL in the first two rounds. And that's like 20 years of draft data.

I remember that one...because I cried that day.

If you guys would like to add to that section, feel free to note and I'll edit that section. Having that knowledge and Hero's pre draft visit tracker are essential to doing mock drafts.
Originally posted by thl408:
imo
Defensive needs:
1. CB - I think the next step for this defense is getting CBs that can man cover to add that element to the coverage. It takes an entire secondary to play man so let's start acquiring them.
2. Edge depth - If the team wants RBlair back (UFA) it should be easy. I doubt another team pays him anything substantial since he'll be rehabbing half of 2020. Need some young blood here to hopefully grow into the 3rd DE role.
3. Nose Tackle depth - SDay is a UFA but isn't really a run stopper. DJJones can't finish a season. Need a backup stout run defender if KStreet isn't that guy.

Offensive needs:
1. Speed at WR - have to get defenses to back up a bit from crowding the middle of the field
2. upgrade Right Guard - Person's pass blocking leaves a lot to be desired. If Brunskill is that guy, then go for OT depth.
3. OTackle depth - Skule is okay, but needs to get better. Some vet depth to push him will be good in case Skule takes awhile to develop.

Don't know how I missed this but, yep all of this.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Thank you! Yeah, that was a synopsis of what the Athletic put together on Kyle's tendencies from a few years ago as a way to try to guesstimate what he, as a HC, might do in the draft. And they did hold up too at that time.

For instance, you noted #2. He still hasn't drafted a RB or TE earlier than round 3. That's still true today.

Trend #1: He rarely drafts Offensive players in RD 1 --- still true today
Trend #2: He NEVER drafted RB or TE before RD 3 --- still true today
Trend #3: He does draft Offense in RD 3: --- still true today
Tight Ends: The last three TEs drafted by Shanny (Reed, Hooper and Kittle) have all run 40's faster than 4.75 (combine average for TEs), he values athleticism (pSPARQ), route running and catching over pass blocking. --- still true today
Wide Receivers: Shanny has lacked recent success here as most of his best WRs were already drafted (Julio) or through FA (Garcon). Dante Pettis looks like he can be solid at least --- epic fail on Pettis and Hurd so far. Homerun with Deebo. Mostly true today.

But yeah, after three full drafts, we probably could edit this more a bit and add a few more, huh?

I hope you think I am not being a pain for but when I meant the bullets under trend 2 are false/outdated. I agree the trend three is true. The first trend would depend on what you consider rarely, I dont think around 35 to 40% would be considered rarely. I also think it is better to look at his years as a HC where he has more say/power on personal. He has gone defense on 75% of his first round picks. I dont know if 25% is considered rarely?
Originally posted by Heroism:
Also, I don't have the exact data with me right now, but another trend is that Shanahans have never drafted an interior OL in the first two rounds. And that's like 20 years of draft data.

They drafted Josh LeRibeus, OG in 2012(Redskins)
Originally posted by Derbucher:
They drafted Josh LeRibeus, OG in 2012(Redskins)

Yeah, I knew it was an extremely low number. I didn't have the exact information on hand, but we combed thru their entire history in the draft forum. 1 in 20 years of drafting.

Simply put, if you're expecting Kyle to draft an interior OL early in the draft, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
[ Edited by Heroism on Feb 12, 2020 at 1:00 PM ]

Originally posted by thl408:
Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.

I hope you mean $13 million.
Sign TE Austin Hooper
Austin Hooper on his time with 49ers' Kyle Shanahan: "This guy is Nostradamus. This guy is a fortune teller."


Kittle + Hooper
[ Edited by TheBhagwan on Feb 12, 2020 at 2:49 PM ]
Originally posted by Derbucher:
I hope you think I am not being a pain for but when I meant the bullets under trend 2 are false/outdated. I agree the trend three is true. The first trend would depend on what you consider rarely, I dont think around 35 to 40% would be considered rarely. I also think it is better to look at his years as a HC where he has more say/power on personal. He has gone defense on 75% of his first round picks. I dont know if 25% is considered rarely?

No, not at all. I appreciate the discussion! Truly. And I especially agree with the bold.

If you have your own research and bullet points, I'd be elated to update that section esp. given we have three solid years now where he had more personnel control.
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 12, 2020 at 2:51 PM ]
Originally posted by TheBhagwan:
Sign TE Austin Hooper
Austin Hooper on his time with 49ers' Kyle Shanahan: "This guy is Nostradamus. This guy is a fortune teller."


Kittle + Hooper

I was so into this idea, the last two years I've been hoping for a top pass catching TE as much as WR because with this running game and two dominant TE's, I think Kyle would own the league.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I love Lombardi. What's the skinny on this one?

Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.

I wish we took classes together in college. Great synopsis. Thank you.

You're the guy copying everybody else's papers 15 minutes before class starts since high school. I've been on both sides
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