2020 Team Information (Needs)

Originally posted by Derbucher:

I think you did a great job on your post except for this section some of it was really confusing or flat out not true. Trend #2 I would say is completely off and might be a good idea to have removed or edited. he has drafted multiple WRs in the second round this alone would make the second statement false, Joel is not the only time he has selected an offensive player in the second round, Pettis and Deebo would like a word. I also think 40% percent is not rarely when it comes to offensive first round draft picks.

Thank you! Yeah, that was a synopsis of what the Athletic put together on Kyle's tendencies from a few years ago as a way to try to guesstimate what he, as a HC, might do in the draft. And they did hold up too at that time.

For instance, you noted #2. He still hasn't drafted a RB or TE earlier than round 3. That's still true today.

Trend #1: He rarely drafts Offensive players in RD 1 --- still true today
Trend #2: He NEVER drafted RB or TE before RD 3 --- still true today
Trend #3: He does draft Offense in RD 3: --- still true today
Tight Ends: The last three TEs drafted by Shanny (Reed, Hooper and Kittle) have all run 40's faster than 4.75 (combine average for TEs), he values athleticism (pSPARQ), route running and catching over pass blocking. --- still true today
Wide Receivers: Shanny has lacked recent success here as most of his best WRs were already drafted (Julio) or through FA (Garcon). Dante Pettis looks like he can be solid at least --- epic fail on Pettis and Hurd so far. Homerun with Deebo. Mostly true today.

But yeah, after three full drafts, we probably could edit this more a bit and add a few more, huh?

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

I love Lombardi. What's the skinny on this one?

Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.

I wish we took classes together in college. Great synopsis. Thank you.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Also, I don't have the exact data with me right now, but another trend is that Shanahans have never drafted an interior OL in the first two rounds. And that's like 20 years of draft data.

I remember that one...because I cried that day.

If you guys would like to add to that section, feel free to note and I'll edit that section. Having that knowledge and Hero's pre draft visit tracker are essential to doing mock drafts.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Thank you! Yeah, that was a synopsis of what the Athletic put together on Kyle's tendencies from a few years ago as a way to try to guesstimate what he, as a HC, might do in the draft. And they did hold up too at that time.

For instance, you noted #2. He still hasn't drafted a RB or TE earlier than round 3. That's still true today.

Trend #1: He rarely drafts Offensive players in RD 1 --- still true today
Trend #2: He NEVER drafted RB or TE before RD 3 --- still true today
Trend #3: He does draft Offense in RD 3: --- still true today
Tight Ends: The last three TEs drafted by Shanny (Reed, Hooper and Kittle) have all run 40's faster than 4.75 (combine average for TEs), he values athleticism (pSPARQ), route running and catching over pass blocking. --- still true today
Wide Receivers: Shanny has lacked recent success here as most of his best WRs were already drafted (Julio) or through FA (Garcon). Dante Pettis looks like he can be solid at least --- epic fail on Pettis and Hurd so far. Homerun with Deebo. Mostly true today.

But yeah, after three full drafts, we probably could edit this more a bit and add a few more, huh?

I hope you think I am not being a pain for but when I meant the bullets under trend 2 are false/outdated. I agree the trend three is true. The first trend would depend on what you consider rarely, I dont think around 35 to 40% would be considered rarely. I also think it is better to look at his years as a HC where he has more say/power on personal. He has gone defense on 75% of his first round picks. I dont know if 25% is considered rarely?

Originally posted by Heroism:
Also, I don't have the exact data with me right now, but another trend is that Shanahans have never drafted an interior OL in the first two rounds. And that's like 20 years of draft data.

They drafted Josh LeRibeus, OG in 2012(Redskins)

Originally posted by Derbucher:

They drafted Josh LeRibeus, OG in 2012(Redskins)

Yeah, I knew it was an extremely low number. I didn't have the exact information on hand, but we combed thru their entire history in the draft forum. 1 in 20 years of drafting.

Simply put, if you're expecting Kyle to draft an interior OL early in the draft, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

Originally posted by thl408:
Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.

I hope you mean $13 million.

Sign TE Austin Hooper
Austin Hooper on his time with 49ers' Kyle Shanahan: "This guy is Nostradamus. This guy is a fortune teller."


Kittle + Hooper

Originally posted by Derbucher:

I hope you think I am not being a pain for but when I meant the bullets under trend 2 are false/outdated. I agree the trend three is true. The first trend would depend on what you consider rarely, I dont think around 35 to 40% would be considered rarely. I also think it is better to look at his years as a HC where he has more say/power on personal. He has gone defense on 75% of his first round picks. I dont know if 25% is considered rarely?

No, not at all. I appreciate the discussion! Truly. And I especially agree with the bold.

If you have your own research and bullet points, I'd be elated to update that section esp. given we have three solid years now where he had more personnel control.

Originally posted by TheBhagwan:

Sign TE Austin Hooper
Austin Hooper on his time with 49ers' Kyle Shanahan: "This guy is Nostradamus. This guy is a fortune teller."


Kittle + Hooper

I was so into this idea, the last two years I've been hoping for a top pass catching TE as much as WR because with this running game and two dominant TE's, I think Kyle would own the league.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

I love Lombardi. What's the skinny on this one?

Broke down how the Kwon re-structure basically means the team is committed to him for multiple years now. Before the November restructure, he was cut-able with reasonable dead cap, not anymore. Same with Richburg.

Giving Buckner a new deal can help save the team money in 2020 since he won't be playing on the franchise tag.

Possible cuts to save money: Goodwin($3.6), Jet ($4.5), Coleman ($4.9), Nzoecha ($1.5)

Estimated the contract value for Armstead, Ward, Sanders, Kittle.

49ers currently have $13 in cap room and can create an additional $15 via cutting players.

I wish we took classes together in college. Great synopsis. Thank you.

You're the guy copying everybody else's papers 15 minutes before class starts since high school. I've been on both sides

Originally posted by qnnhan7:

You're the guy copying everybody else's papers 15 minutes before class starts since high school. I've been on both sides

Haha. I'm more the guy that takes two classes at the same time and needs his buddy to take notes in the class I'm not in that day. LOL

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by TheBhagwan:
Sign TE Austin Hooper
Austin Hooper on his time with 49ers' Kyle Shanahan: "This guy is Nostradamus. This guy is a fortune teller."
Kittle + Hooper

I was so into this idea, the last two years I've been hoping for a top pass catching TE as much as WR because with this running game and two dominant TE's, I think Kyle would own the league.

yes! perfect for kyle's offensive narrative
Holmgreen owned the league with Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura
and he's from stanford LOL!

2020 In-house off season plan before free agency/draft:

Current Salary Cap Space: $11.58M
Remaining Salary Cap Space Needed: $36M (includes -$11.58M and Kittle/Buckner extension differences in 2020 APY and outlined deals below; does not include rookie cap pool)

Per AB (Jason Hurley) at 49erscap , we could save $36M with contract restructures:

The 49ers will likely look into restructures, namely Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Staley, and Dee Ford. They'd save over $19 million with a Garoppolo restructure, over $10 million with a Ford restructure, and over $7 million with a Staley restructure.

49ers Salary Cap: A look at cap space going into the off season

Team Gains: End of 2019 - 2/15/2020
CB Quinten Rollins - Signed to a 1-year deal
CB Jordan Holland - Signed to a 3-year deal
LB Joey Alfieri, OL Kofi Amichia, S Chris Edwards, LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, CB Jermaine Kelly, G Ross Reynolds, DL Ray Smith, S Jacob Thieneman & WR Chris Thompson - Signed to a 2-year deal
CB Teez Tabor, T Leonard Wester, S Derrick Kindred & C Jake Brendel - Signed to a 1-year deal
DL Willie Henry Jr. - Signed to a 1-year, $770K deal
ER Jonathan Kongbo - Signed to a 3-year deal
ER Alex Barrett &, G Jaryd Jones-Smith - Signed to a 2-year deal

Released/Traded or Restructured Candidates:
Jimmy Garoppolo (Restructure) - $26.6M cap for 2020 / per AB, could free up [$19M]
Richard Sherman (Restructure/Release) - $1M cap / $12.9M savings. Convert base salary into bonus money [$11.9M]
Dee Ford (Restructure/Release) - $6.4M cap / $9.7M savings if cut / per AB, could free up [$10M]
Joe Staley (Restructure) - $11.75M cap for 2020 / per AB, could free up [$7M]
Tevin Coleman (Restructure/Release) - $0 cap/ $4.9M savings. Convert base salary into bonus money [$4.9M]
Kyle Juszczyk (Restructure) - $1.25M cap / $5.5M savings. Convert base salary into bonus money [$4.25M]
Solomon Thomas (Trade) - $8.9M cap / $0 savings [$4M]
Jaquiski Tartt (Extend/Release) - $1.5M cap / $4.9M savings. Convert base salary into bonus money [$3.4M]
Mike Person (Release) - $0 cap/ $2.5M savings [$2.5M]
Marquise Goodwin (Release) - $1.2M cap / $3.6M savings [$2.4M]
Ahkello Witherspoon (Release) - $243K cap / $2.1M savings [$1.86M]
Mark Nzeocha (Release) - $0 cap/ $1.5M savings [$1.5M]
C.J. BeatHard (Trade/Release) - $176K cap / $946K savings [$770K]
Jerick McKinnon (Restructure) - $4M cap/ $4.5M savings [$500K]
Total Possible Cap Savings (Release/Trade/Restructure): [$74M]

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Unrestricted FAs:
DE Arik Armstead - Offer 4-year, $14.5M deal (currently, $9M; this would be 9th highest behind Everson Griffen on the 4-3 DE's salaries). It would be roughly $18M for the Non-Exclusive tag and $21M for the Exclusive tag. The numbers suggest we just won't be able to afford him though without some serious restructuring and releases.
C Ben Garland - Offer 2-year, $3M deal (currently, $805K)
TE Levine Toilolo - Offer 2-year, $2M deal (currently, $735K)
DE Damontre Moore - Offer 2-year, $2M deal (currently, $235K)
DE Ronald Blair III - Offer 2-year, $5M deal (currently, $787K)
OT Shon Coleman - Test free agency first
WR Emmanuel Sanders - Test free agency first (Expected to sign an $8-9M contract)
FS Jimmie Ward - Test free agency first (Expected to sign an $8-9M contract)
NT Sheldon Day - Do not resign
SS Antone Exum Jr. - Do not resign
Total APY: $20.5M

Restricted FA's: $2.1M
Kendrick Bourne - Original-Round Tender; Resign, 2-year, $5M deal
Matt Breida - Original-Round Tender; $2.1M
Elijah Lee - Original-Round Tender; $735K
Total APY: $5.3M

Exclusive Rights FA's:
First-Round Tenders - Valued at $5M
Second-Round Tenders - Valued at $3.5M
Original-Round & Low-Level Tenders - Valued at $2.3M
QB Nick Mullens - Original-Round Tender; Open for trade talks
CB Emmanuel Moseley - Original-Round Tender; Consider resigning long-term
OG Daniel Brunskill - Original-Round Tender; Consider resigning long-term
TE Ross Dwelley - Original-Round Tender; Consider resigning long-term
OG Andrew Lauderdale - Original-Round Tender
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - Let the market play out; bring back later if needed
Total APY: $9.2M

Exclusive Rights FA's: Already Resigned
WR Chris Thompson
OG Ross Reynolds
OG Kofi Amichia
OT Jaryd Jones-Smith
DE Alex Barrett
DT Ray Smith
SLB Demtrius Flannigan-Fowles
LB Joey Alfieri
CB Jermaine Kelly Jr.
CB Teez Tabor
S Jacob Thieneman

Priority Targets for Extensions:
TE George Kittle - Offer 4-year, $12M APY deal (currently scheduled to make $2.2M in 2020. Highest paid TE by $2M)
3T DeForest Buckner - Offer 4-year, $16M APY deal (currently scheduled to make $14.3M in 2020. 3rd highest behind Grady Jarrett for 4-3 DT's)
Total APY: $12.5

Total 2020 Contracts APY: $47.5M

Tough decisions ahead...()

53-man Roster:
Offensive Personnel: --- 34
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo; Nick Mullens & C.J. BeatHard (we need to get BeatHard's contract off the books and certainly need to restructure Garoppolo's contract)
RB: Raheem Mostert; Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson Jr. & Jerick McKinnon (McKinnon needs to rework his deal down, Coleman & Wilson should be gone)
FB: Kyle Juszczyk
TE/F: George Kittle; Ross Dwelley, Jalen Hurd & Daniel Helm (only room for 3 here this year)
XWR: Marquise Goodwin; Chris Thompson (need to cut Goodwin)
SWR: Kendrick Bourne; Trent Taylor & Richie James Jr. (might need to move on from James)
ZWR/F: Deebo Samuel; Dante Pettis (might need to move on from Pettis' contract)
LT: Joe Staley; Justin Skule (consider restructuring Staley's contract?)
LG: Laken Tomlinson; Ross Reynolds
C: Weston Richburg; Jake Brendel (already restructured Richburg)
RG: Mike Person; Daniel Brunskill, Kofi Amichia & Jaryd Jones-Smith
RT: Mike McGlinchey; Leonard Wester

Defensive Personnel: --- 37
LDE/W9: Dee Ford; Anthony Zettel & Alex Barrett (Ford's contract may need restructuring; rip cord?)
2i: D.J. Jones; Solomon Thomas, Kentavius Street & Kevin Givens (Thomas' contract is killing us)
3T: DeForest Buckner; Jullian Taylor, Willie Henry Jr. & Ray Smith
RDE/W9: Nick Bosa; Jonathan Kongbo
SAM: Kwon Alexander; Azeez Al-Shaair & Mark Nzeocha (already restructured Alexander's contract)
MIKE: Fred Warner; Elijah Lee & Joey Alfieri
WILL: Dre Greenlaw; Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
RCB: Emmanuel Moseley; Ahkello Witherspoon & Tim Harris
SCB: K'Waun Williams; D.J. Reed & Jordan Holland
LCB: Richard Sherman; Quinten Rollins & Teez Tabor (consider restructuring Sherman's contract)
FS: Tarvarius Moore; Derrick Kindred & Jacob Thieneman
SS: Jaquiski Tartt; Marcell Harris, Chris Edwards & Jermaine Kelly Jr.

Special Teams: --- 3
LS: Kyle Nelson
PK: Robbie Gould
P: Mitch Wishnowsky

Team Needs: LEO (Speed), IOL (C & RG), XWR (Speed), RCB, FS, LT (Future), TE2, SWR, ST (Returner)

Question? Do the correct releases. Coleman, Goodwin, McKinnon. That's gets niners to around 20 million in cap room. Try to keep Arik. Sign Ward, too. Now, the guy we need is Jalen Ramsey. Sherm is gone in a year. BTW, Solly is not worth 9 million per. I think the niners keep him though. How do we sign Ramsey?