Super Bowl preview: stats, matchups, and breakdowns

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

I'm guessing that there will be more fans placing small bets( $100-500) on the Chiefs because they have the high flying offense but I wonder where the big bets will go. One half million dollar bet can cancel out a lot of individual fan bets. We'll see if the line moves.

Psychic

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2020/film-room-kansas-city-trips
The Chiefs operate out of 3x1 on a regular basis already, especially with tight end Travis Kelce flexed out as the isolated receiver, but they pumped up their 3x1 usage even more against the Titans. At least two-thirds of the offense either had the offense initially lining up in 3x1 or snapping the ball in 3x1 after a shift or motion. Even much of the Chiefs' running game was out of 3x1 looks.

There is no telling exactly how much 3x1 the Chiefs will turn to versus the 49ers. It's going to be a key part of their arsenal regardless, but it's tough to say whether they will relentlessly play out of those looks the way they did against the Titans. The volume at which the Chiefs beat Tennessee over the head with 3x1 looks was embarrassing by the end of the match, in all honesty. This year's 49ers defense is not likely to look that helpless.

That being said, throwing a non-Hill or non-Kelce player out as the solo receiver to cornerback Richard Sherman's side while three receivers slice-and-dice the 49ers secondary on the other side could be something we see the Chiefs try a fair bit. Sherman doesn't like to travel much, and Andy Reid isn't foolish enough to try beating Sherman with brute force, especially considering the year he is having.

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

Where's this info from? Googled it and got nothing.

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

Where's this info from? Googled it and got nothing.

Google NFL public betting

Or google public bet percentage nfl

Each website will evaluates their own bets

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

Where's this info from? Googled it and got nothing.

Google NFL public betting

Or google public bet percentage nfl

Each website will evaluates their own bets

Good looking out. Looks like almost 60% of bets are on KC. And you're right the line went down. Vegas knows what we know.

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

Where's this info from? Googled it and got nothing.

Google NFL public betting

Or google public bet percentage nfl

Each website will evaluates their own bets

Good looking out. Looks like almost 60% of bets are on KC. And you're right the line went down. Vegas knows what we know.

Originally posted by thl408:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2020/film-room-kansas-city-trips
The Chiefs operate out of 3x1 on a regular basis already, especially with tight end Travis Kelce flexed out as the isolated receiver, but they pumped up their 3x1 usage even more against the Titans. At least two-thirds of the offense either had the offense initially lining up in 3x1 or snapping the ball in 3x1 after a shift or motion. Even much of the Chiefs' running game was out of 3x1 looks.

There is no telling exactly how much 3x1 the Chiefs will turn to versus the 49ers. It's going to be a key part of their arsenal regardless, but it's tough to say whether they will relentlessly play out of those looks the way they did against the Titans. The volume at which the Chiefs beat Tennessee over the head with 3x1 looks was embarrassing by the end of the match, in all honesty. This year's 49ers defense is not likely to look that helpless.

That being said, throwing a non-Hill or non-Kelce player out as the solo receiver to cornerback Richard Sherman's side while three receivers slice-and-dice the 49ers secondary on the other side could be something we see the Chiefs try a fair bit. Sherman doesn't like to travel much, and Andy Reid isn't foolish enough to try beating Sherman with brute force, especially considering the year he is having.

I'm pretty sure they will try Sherman deep. They tried in the game last year and Adams and Diggs both beat him on double moves (although Armstead got the sack on the Diggs play).

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

Where's this info from? Googled it and got nothing.

Google NFL public betting

Or google public bet percentage nfl

Each website will evaluates their own bets

Good looking out. Looks like almost 60% of bets are on KC. And you're right the line went down. Vegas knows what we know.

Xbet has KC -2 now

Originally posted by bmvanthiel:
Love all these stats we have been seeing.

I feel like everything I'm seeing is in our favor? I'm not positive if people are only posting favorable stuff here or if this really is just a great matchup for us?

Either way, Reading all the info in this thread and others has really increased my confidence.

Yeah I'm a homer so it's gonna be like that

I would really like to see the Chiefs defensive and offensive DVOA since Mahomes returned from his knee injury.

Chiefs fans are quick to point out how drastically their run D has improved right around the time Mahomes returned. I also know they didn't play a who's who of offenses over that time. However, weighting data from week 12-20 seems to be more indicative of how they are currently playing.

Anybody have those splits?

^^ that's the article that did it. That's the one that got me to sign up - I had to read it.
I'm not going to post anything from that article but will mention that the author said the reason why the KC was able to defend TEN's outside zone so well is because they didn't fear Henry being able to turn the corner since he isn't quick/fast like Mostert. Mostert's speed is able to threaten the edge on OZ making cheating towards the inside, what KC did vs TEN, an invalid strategy.

Thing is though, SF is so much more than just outside zone. KC is going to need 3 weeks to prepare for SF's run game.

Greg Cossell was on local radio and mentioned TEN's gameplan vs KC. He thought TEN did a good job of limiting KC's explosives but that TEN's pass rush failed them. I'm watching the TEN/KC game and I see TEN doing what has been suggested in the SB preview thread, rush 3 and bring the 4th rusher late once the three force Mahomes from the pocket. That seemed to be TEN's plan on some plays. The problem for TEN was that the first three rushers were mostly ineffective, making the 4th guy not effective in pressuring Mahomes.

Here are two plays where it kinda worked even though the first three rushers weren't very good at getting pressure. The coverage was good and once Mahomes escaped the pocket, the 4th guy activated.

TEN in soft man coverage here. The cushion gives off a zone look, but they match up once the cushion is eaten up. imo this is the type of muddy presnap look that SF needs to use to cause Mahomes to hold on to the ball. Incomplete.


Cover 3 in the backend. Same thing here. Rush 3. Once Mahomes escapes, the 4th rusher activates. If SF uses this tactic on some downs, the key is having the three rushers be disruptive enough that the 4th rusher is able to activate sooner and the coverage won't have to hold up as long.

Dangerous to press Tyreek Hill at the line.