Super Bowl preview: stats, matchups, and breakdowns

One thread isn't enough and I don't want interesting stats and breakdowns being lost due to how quickly the main pregame thread moves. I'll post stats, tweets, video breakdowns, etc. If anyone finds something intriguing involving matchup breakdowns, please post it here.

Graphic below is from these two articles detailing each teams' 2019 offensive and defensive tendencies.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/01/san-francisco-49ers-nfl-playoffs-strategy-analysis
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/01/kansas-city-chiefs-nfl-playoffs-strategy-analysis



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https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2019-nfl-secondary-rankings
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Armed with PFF's top-graded cornerback in Richard Sherman, the 49ers' secondary earned our second-highest team coverage grade (92.5) in 2019. The 'Niners played a zone-coverage shell on over 70% of their snaps during the regular season and allowed the second-fewest expected points added (EPA) per pass play of any defense in the league (-0.188). While primarily playing in a three-deep zone scheme, the 49ers' secondary excelled by limiting explosive pass plays — they tied with the Patriots by allowing the fewest first-down completions (149) during the 2019 season.
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18. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo used a good mix of both man and zone coverage to leverage the talents of safeties Tyrann Mathieu (81.5 coverage grade) and rookie Juan Thornhill (78.0), but cornerbacks Charvarius Ward (65.6), Bashaud Breeland (43.9) and Kendall Fuller (55.3) all earned grades that beg for improvement. The Chiefs' cornerbacks and safeties scored the league's ninth-lowest forced incompletion rate at 10.3% while wasting opportunities with seven dropped interceptions, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL.

Tyrann Mathieu stat:

if their corners aren't good, then its time for Garappolo and these receivers to feast. They'll be expecting a heavy run dosage

Originally posted by thl408:

One similarity between the Ravens and the two Super Bowl teams is offensive efficiency. Take a look at NFL's highest percentage of TDs per drives this season:

1. Ravens 34.9%
2. Chiefs 28%
3. 49ers 27.9%

Source: @ESPNStatsInfo

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) January 20, 2020

Except or defense is better than theirs by a lot.

49ers run the ball = win the game

So, you're telling me there's a chance...yeaaahhhhh!!!

Team Defense DVOA rankings

Chiefs #8 pass, #29 run

49ers # 2 pass, #11 run

DVOA takes out those teams with weak schedules and compares them over average.

Football Outsiders link

One thing I always consider when comparing stats. You have to take into account that the talent on every team is fairly close, unlike college. That's why it isn't that uncommon for a team near the bottom to upset a team at the top or turn things around in one or two seasons. If a good team with a top D happens to get in a shootout in a couple of games like we did against the Rams and Saints. it can really skew your stats. You play a good team and hold them to 10 points and then give up 24 to a worse team the next week. It happens all the time so I never look at stats and feel they tell the whole story.

So KC is one of the worst run defending team in that league? Is that due to scheme, lack of talent, or because they play so much dime?