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Week 9 2019 - Thoughts after rewatching the first half of the season...

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  • dj43
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Originally posted by thl408:
Can't wait until the two OTs come back. Most teams going down to their 4th and 5th OTs means the offense takes a big step back in how they can run the ball and what types of passing plays they call. When the 49ers execute run plays, WRs get very involved in misdirection and crackbacks which help out the OL. So having this team concept to run blocking helped the team maintain a good rushing attack with bench players. This, and Jimmy's fast decision making/release has helped the 49ers offense continue scoring despite the injuries.

The addition of Sanders, Juice, OTs into the offense, and knowing they have serviceable players in Toilolo/Dwelley means Kyle can really change up his personnel groupings to create more layers to his offense. The 4-6 week injury was really a blessing in disguise as it got those replacement players valuable playing time while not suffering in the win loss column.

Yes, it was. It may have even saved a draft pick by seeing the two kids play as well as they did.

I am jazzed to see if there is an identifiable difference in the offense with Joe and Mc back, assuming they are.
Originally posted by 951NINER:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
9) George Kittle: I mean…what else can I say? With apologies to Brent Jones and none to Vernon Davis, simply the best TE the Niners have ever had.

Great post and thoughts Marvin as usual. However, I have to disagree with this one, for now. Let's wait til Kittle makes some big catches in big games i.e. playoffs,and hopefully SB.

if you're arguing that because of Vernon, I will disagree all day. Kittle > Vernon besides pure straight line speed in Vernon's prime lol
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by SkyZer0:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
So, I had planned on doing these quarterly instead of weekly, but life kinda got in the way after game 4.

I spend a lot of time on opposing teams pages these days because I really enjoy the conversation with fans of opposing teams. You kinda get homer takes for their teams just as you do here with our Niners, but I think it's a really good way to see the team the Niners are up against from inside enemy lines instead of the mostly wrong national view. I think you all know what I mean when you see the way the Niners are talked about. Its really the truth for all 32 NFL teams. Those guys just regurgitate the same old talking points, but really know less than average fans of every NFL team.

That was certainly true in particular of Steeler, Browns, and Panther fans and those conversations were a lot of fun this year.

Anyway, here we go…

1) Jimmy Garoppolo: I've been sayin this for awhile now tho I haven't posted much on the 'zone these days but to me Jimmy is following a very predictable path. What we lost last year when he got hurt wasn't a possible playoff season. What we lost was TIME in that system for Jimmy. TIME on the field making mistakes and learning from them. TIME to see issues and work through them with Kyle. TIME to get to know this offensive system inside and out and roll with it when Kyle changes on the fly...which he does a lot.

That's what we are seeing this year. In 2015, Kyle Shanahans first year in Atlanta, there was an article I read and will never forget.

https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2015/12/1/9820316/kyle-shanahan-quarterback-killer

Kyle Shanahan, QB Killer.

"The passing offense has been atrocious for weeks. Turnovers, inaccurate throws, and predictability have haunted this team. While Atlanta's supporting cast could use some improvement, the passing offense has taken a decidedly swift step back since last year. How can a Pro Bowl quarterback and a Pro Bowl wide receiver look so ordinary, so quickly?

In my opinion, the problem has to originate with one of either two people: QB Matt Ryan or OC Kyle Shanahan.

Simply put, Ryan is having his worst year as a pro. He looks uncomfortable playing, and his mechanics have been a mess all season. He has been asked to do a number of things he has never excelled at, such as throwing on the run, and a lot of bootlegs. Ryan has always been at his best running an uptempo offense, but oddly he is only able to run those in the last few minutes of a half. That is also usually the only time the Falcons are able to quickly score."

In 16 starts in 2015, Matt Ryans Stat line was as follows:

66.3 Comp%, 4591 Yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs, 89 QB Rating.

In 2016, Matt Ryan was the NFL MVP.

So what are Jimmy Garoppolos stats under Shanahan? 16 starts and a drive:

67.5 Comp%, 4084 Yards, 25 TDs, 15 INTs, 97.1 QB Rating.

In addition to this, he started the season recovering from a Torn ACL. JIMMY. NEEDS. TIME. That's it. Now some will say "yeah but he's being paid like a star" or whatever. Get that outta here. That's a designation that exists only in the head of the fan or sportswriter. Those $$$ are a byproduct of the situation, not how far down the development path Jimmy was. The 49ers knew that. I don't deal in utopia…I deal in reality. The reality is that Jimmy came into this season with 10 career starts. That's it. He is not and was not a finished product.

There was so much BS going on this offseason around 5 straight INTs in a practice, a poor preseason performance, and then the team not needing him to win games because the rest of the team was dominant that I really think people lost sight of what he can be and where he is on the learning curve. A narrative that was cool to talk about on ESPN came about that Jimmy was holding the team back. These people seem unable to read the record of the team WITHOUT Jimmy or what happened in 2017 when he started the last 5 games of the year.

Jimmy will get better as this year progresses. Jimmy will be much better next year than he is this year because he'll have been in those trenches and will have gotten the time under center than he needed.

I got no issue whatsoever with Jimmy. I ain't sayin he wins the MVP next year, but people who have issues with him simply don't have a clue and don't have any context around what he's doing. In short, National Media is clueless. Shocker, right?

dude. THANK YOU. you said it so well here. these are things me and other fans have been trying to tell 49er fan naysayers all goddamn season and offseason. but in turn they retort with the stupid contract argument and 'fantasy' number arguments. so nice to see this so well said and clear.

I think the better way to look at the Jimmy contract situation is pretend for a moment he was the first overall pick of the draft before the CBA capped the Salary of rookies.

He was paid on potential. He was paid because SOMEONE was going to pay him. Its not like the 49ers looked at him and said, he's pretty, give him 25 mil per. No. If the 49ers didn't pay him, he'd have been an UFA and he'd likely have gotten MORE in Free Agency and he'd STILL only have a few NFL starts to his name.

The contracts messes with reason. It sets expectations where they are near impossible to achieve. He is a QB with very, very good potential learning his way through the league.

Lets do a little experiment. Its difficult to compare Jimmy to rookies because he did get the opportunity to sit and learn. So...lets use QBs who got to do that.

First off, Jimmys statline:
67.5 Comp%, 4084 Yards, 25 TDs, 15 INTs, 97.1 QB Rating

Then Matt Ryan since it was his first year with Shanahan, but his EIGHTH in the NFL and with Julio Jones catching passes:
66.3 Comp%, 4591 Yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs, 89 QB Rating

How about this one. QB in his first year as a starter after sitting behind a HOF QB.
63.6 Comp%, 4038 Yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs, 93.8 QB Rating

Any guesses?

My point is not that Jimmy will be a HOF QB. My point is that talk of the contract distracts from the reality is that he is a relatively new starter and there WILL be growing pains. $$$ is not equal to game experience and the faster people can come to grips with that, the better.

i dont care about all that. what i cant stop looking at is this game he had on Thursday night. he looked like his 2017 self. no, even better. it was spectacular. he's so consistently clutch I get paranoid thinking one of these days he won't be, or he'll fail. but he always comes through. he reminded me a lot of Brady/Rodgers at times in that game. unbelievable.
  • dj43
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Originally posted by thl408:
Regarding the run defense, the team made a conscious decision to sacrifice interior run defense for pass rush/coverage. Wide 9 puts strain on the interior DT and LBs. They then doubled down and got light athletic LBs that further sacrifice run defense to improve pass coverage. It will be tested versus SEA and BAL but there are things they can do schematically to bolster the run defense. I'll show this in the film thread vs ARI.

I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by thl408:
Regarding the run defense, the team made a conscious decision to sacrifice interior run defense for pass rush/coverage. Wide 9 puts strain on the interior DT and LBs. They then doubled down and got light athletic LBs that further sacrifice run defense to improve pass coverage. It will be tested versus SEA and BAL but there are things they can do schematically to bolster the run defense. I'll show this in the film thread vs ARI.

I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.

It was a choice. They didn't just happen into light LBs.

Now they have to deal with it. They get the advantage of the speed and coverage, but there is a trade-off.
Marvin49 hasn't gone anywhere...he's simply taken to posting on every opponents boards all season. I lurk...and am pretty sure I've seen his posts on all of them.
Originally posted by Niners_D:
Marvin49 hasn't gone anywhere...he's simply taken to posting on every opponents boards all season. I lurk...and am pretty sure I've seen his posts on all of them.

Accurate. LOL.
Originally posted by 16to87:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
So I see Buzz still posts jibberish...
Wow Marvin taking shots at the handicapped. I see your stay on the .NET has rubbed off.

Yeah that's messed up
Originally posted by dj43:
I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.

Best run D in football is Tampa Bay. Their starting LBers are White/David both are between 230-235 which is considered light. You don't have to be a monster LBer to be a great run defender. Ray Lewis was never a big LBer. Willis wasn't a mountain of a LBer either.

Guys up front on the DL need to play better in run D. The scheme is built to stop passing teams and puts strain vs the run. They need to play disciplined football and NEED to make tackles. Their was too many blown tackles last game.

We got killed in the screen game (usually we don't) Guys didn't play disciplined football on TNF.
Originally posted by thl408:
Can't wait until the two OTs come back. Most teams going down to their 4th and 5th OTs means the offense takes a big step back in how they can run the ball and what types of passing plays they call. When the 49ers execute run plays, WRs get very involved in misdirection and crackbacks which help out the OL. So having this team concept to run blocking helped the team maintain a good rushing attack with bench players. This, and Jimmy's fast decision making/release has helped the 49ers offense continue scoring despite the injuries.

The addition of Sanders, Juice, OTs into the offense, and knowing they have serviceable players in Toilolo/Dwelley means Kyle can really change up his personnel groupings to create more layers to his offense. The 4-6 week injury was really a blessing in disguise as it got those replacement players valuable playing time while not suffering in the win loss column.

So much in this.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by dj43:
I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.

Best run D in football is Tampa Bay. Their starting LBers are White/David both are between 230-235 which is considered light. You don't have to be a monster LBer to be a great run defender. Ray Lewis was never a big LBer. Willis wasn't a mountain of a LBer either.

Guys up front on the DL need to play better in run D. The scheme is built to stop passing teams and puts strain vs the run. They need to play disciplined football and NEED to make tackles. Their was too many blown tackles last game.

We got killed in the screen game (usually we don't) Guys didn't play disciplined football on TNF.

Yes, but who are their DTs? :D
  • dj43
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Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by thl408:
Regarding the run defense, the team made a conscious decision to sacrifice interior run defense for pass rush/coverage. Wide 9 puts strain on the interior DT and LBs. They then doubled down and got light athletic LBs that further sacrifice run defense to improve pass coverage. It will be tested versus SEA and BAL but there are things they can do schematically to bolster the run defense. I'll show this in the film thread vs ARI.

I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.

It was a choice. They didn't just happen into light LBs.

Now they have to deal with it. They get the advantage of the speed and coverage, but there is a trade-off.

Absolutely, and in this passing league, I agree with it. In the past, we had been getting killed due to a lack of speed covering TEs.

Now if defending the run becomes an issue, Saleh will have to adjust the scheme to minimize the issue. There are ways to do that. I think thl will be looking at that in a film study.
  • dj43
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  • Posts: 30,370
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by dj43:
I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.

Best run D in football is Tampa Bay. Their starting LBers are White/David both are between 230-235 which is considered light. You don't have to be a monster LBer to be a great run defender. Ray Lewis was never a big LBer. Willis wasn't a mountain of a LBer either.

Guys up front on the DL need to play better in run D. The scheme is built to stop passing teams and puts strain vs the run. They need to play disciplined football and NEED to make tackles. Their was too many blown tackles last game.

We got killed in the screen game (usually we don't) Guys didn't play disciplined football on TNF.

15+ pounds may not seem like a lot but the data shows the best coverage guys are in the same weight range as the SF crew while the best run defenders pack an extra 15 pounds of muscle. Linkage.
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Yes, but who are their DTs? :D

I was going to say the same thing.

Also ray lewis had a ton of size in front of him(the year he didnt he verbslly demanded it)

Willis had justin smith, ray mc, and sopoaga. Also takeo spikes helping out.

It is not how big the LBer is, it is how big they are relative to the blocker they have to take on.

The DL scheme is allowing G-C-G to get to the LBs. That is fine, as long as a player can m as ke a great play to stall the run game. If they can force a 2nd and 10+ the offense is then forced to attack the strength of the D.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by dj43:
I had mentioned the same thing in Greenlaw and Alexander threads. There is a trade-off.

I did a quick check of the weights of the top 5 run defenders among MLBs:

Eric Kendricks - 235
Jaylon Smith - 248
Bobby Wagner - 242
Zach Cunningham - 240
Raekwon McMillan - 242.

Of those guys, only Kendricks is in the top 10 in coverage. Though the schemes may be different, weight does play into it. All our guys, except Nzeocha (240), are under 230.

Best run D in football is Tampa Bay. Their starting LBers are White/David both are between 230-235 which is considered light. You don't have to be a monster LBer to be a great run defender. Ray Lewis was never a big LBer. Willis wasn't a mountain of a LBer either.

Guys up front on the DL need to play better in run D. The scheme is built to stop passing teams and puts strain vs the run. They need to play disciplined football and NEED to make tackles. Their was too many blown tackles last game.

We got killed in the screen game (usually we don't) Guys didn't play disciplined football on TNF.

15+ pounds may not seem like a lot but the data shows the best coverage guys are in the same weight range as the SF crew while the best run defenders pack an extra 15 pounds of muscle. Linkage.

better run defending linebackers or better pass coverage linebackers. I would rather have the latter because the defensive line can stop the running attack if they control the line of scrimmage.
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