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  • thl408
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Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by thl408:
That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.
Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by thl408:
That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.
Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.

To me it read as if the 49ers marketing Dept helped write it.
But that's my opinion, which obviously that entire article is an opinion.
Originally posted by OldJoe:
2017: I bought in to the "We don't need a franchise QB, Kyle will 'scheme' us to 8 wins.
2018: We got our franchise QB. 5 straight wins ... will convert to ......Then Jimmy G looks mortal followed by season ending injury.
2019: I think we got too cute in the draft and are driven by too much scheme and skipping fundamentals. I think our 3rd/4th picks should have gone OL/DB.



At some point, if you don't get a little cynical, something is wrong with you. That's where I am. I'm encouraged by the improvements to the defensive line, but they need to prove something this year. Give us a reason to be optimistic. Keep Jimmy G healthy, show us that we actually are okay at safety, prove that the passing game can at least support the running game, give some evidence that taking a punter that high wasn't an idiotic move. I'm not asking for much.
Originally posted by Jeepzilla:
To me it read as if the 49ers marketing Dept helped write it.
But that's my opinion, which obviously that entire article is an opinion.

Well that would explain it, i guess. Whoever did write it tho, is definitely deep on the inside.

It is the first time in 3 yrs, however, i got an explanation for some odd drafting, or trades, financial explanation as to how one manages the cap yet at the same time refurbishes the talent on the squad. It also had a section on keeping your scheme up to date.

For me, it just explained some nagging questions, not only the whys of something but the hows. Even if the marketing dept wrote it, it was filled with answers to things kyle has done, that seemed strange.

I don't think that is where it came from tho. I would guess a former scout for the 9ers or something like that. Whoever it was, the guy was well informed.

Maybe Joan in accounting?
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
That was one of the neat things about the NN article by Reasonable Opinion. He laid out nice and logically, how you draft /trade a QB and Edge, perhaps a CB1, and then start assembling pieces. He breaks down positions into 4 tiers, #1 being QB,, Edge. And on down the line. Then in the section "Financial "
He explains perfectly how you pay your QB on a 5 yr cheap deal, same for Edge, but then you get backup guys who can also be there in case of injury.

Next he notes they pay one Interior, and get a 2nd on the 5 yr cheap. CB1 the same, ,and you keep rotating those guys out .He makes the case for ET, and how great he would have been...but not with the $15 mil x4 yrs. Why? because what do you do if one of our two young guys hit it big...ie, they turn out to be great DBs...if you paid ET already, you would have to let them go...i didn't know his thinking back then but that was exactly why I' didn't want ET once i found out the contract demands. If you haven't read it, Giedi, i would suggest it. How you pay for it is his last topic and it sure looks a lot like the way KS and JL have been operating. Same goes for player personnel, and having a modern up to date scheme, and you know kyle has one.

One thing not covered, was coaches...particularly DC. I've posted before and i stick by it, that kyle kept saleh on because he wants to be his own DC also,

Granted, he wants a DC, but kyle wants to be making D decisions. So saleh stays and Kocurek and Woods come in. This was only thing not covered in NN article

I don't see a problem of Kyle keeping control over the defensive side in terms of an overall kind of direction. I just hope he doesn't get pulled in too many directions and is able to delegate. Bellicheat ran into some of that with the Browns when his DC was Nick Saben and his OC was (I think) Gilbride. He was too stretched to do much of anything other than get the browns an average season. He learned his lesson after the Jets/Patriots hiring fiasco that landed him his HC gig in New England. He learned a lot about the 49er way after he replaced Cheat Carroll in New England, Kraft got some schooling of the cap and how you build dynasties from Cheat Carroll and Kraft transferred that to Bellicheat.
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by thl408:
That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.
Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.

It's not saying that at all. Don't look at the color of the players. The writer gives a player a number value, could be any value you choose, that he believes is ' significantly better than league average for starters' and ' no worse than league average for backups'.
When I did my own spread sheet I came up with a 70-75% for starters (only better than average) and 50% for solid backups (no worse than average). I think that is more reasonable and I will also check after 4 & 8 games into the season. Deebo, by then, might be considered better than average.
As far as your list goes, Verrett was above average , when healthy; he didn't give Ward any points; I'd consider T Coleman the starter, over Jet, and consider him better than average, Solly & Taylor, i agree; Tartt, Person & Williams are all considered 'above average' on PFF grades. The grading is all very subjective, but the concept on how to measure the team's progress is better than listening to some individual poster say 'this team sucks'.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Originally posted by Jeepzilla:
To me it read as if the 49ers marketing Dept helped write it.
But that's my opinion, which obviously that entire article is an opinion.

Well that would explain it, i guess. Whoever did write it tho, is definitely deep on the inside.

It is the first time in 3 yrs, however, i got an explanation for some odd drafting, or trades, financial explanation as to how one manages the cap yet at the same time refurbishes the talent on the squad. It also had a section on keeping your scheme up to date.

For me, it just explained some nagging questions, not only the whys of something but the hows. Even if the marketing dept wrote it, it was filled with answers to things kyle has done, that seemed strange.

I don't think that is where it came from tho. I would guess a former scout for the 9ers or something like that. Whoever it was, the guy was well informed.

Maybe Joan in accounting?

Ha! Yes Joan!

I'm really hoping we get over the "humps" this year and even squeeze in as a wild card..
Trying not to get my expectations to high, but hoping for the best.
Originally posted by Giedi:
I don't see a problem of Kyle keeping control over the defensive side in terms of an overall kind of direction. I just hope he doesn't get pulled in too many directions and is able to delegate. Bellicheat ran into some of that with the Browns when his DC was Nick Saben and his OC was (I think) Gilbride. He was too stretched to do much of anything other than get the browns an average season. He learned his lesson after the Jets/Patriots hiring fiasco that landed him his HC gig in New England. He learned a lot about the 49er way after he replaced Cheat Carroll in New England, Kraft got some schooling of the cap and how you build dynasties from Cheat Carroll and Kraft transferred that to Bellicheat.

Well, two things. We all have already seen kyle struggle with HCing while OCing. While McVay was busy scheming over at the bench, Kyle was trying to juggle one too many balls in the air. McVay had handed D off to Wade Phillips.

That said, kyle is well aware of the massive uproar when a winning team or esp SB team, loses its OC, or DC at end of season. It causes a major problem for getting yet another OC and /or DC. So kyle took a page out of BWs and BBs book and is learning both OC and DCing simultaneously while HCing. He not only has never been a HC before, but neither has he been a DC before.

Hence, altho purely supposition, i think that is why Saleh, never a DC before, but a good guy and good LB coach became DC. But in the back of his mind , i believe kyle is angling for being his own DC, also, which will eliminate the chaos when his DC moves on to greener pastures. So kyle is learning with Saleh, and in time, will be able to have his DC or OC(in the future) come and go, as long as he knows how to be both OC/DC...from his HC perch....he won't miss a beat..

BW knew how to coach every position on the team, but was held back by his HC from becoming HC. He came here much later than many young HCs now. BB was a DC who taught himself OCing, and in the process, prevented the disruption when he lost OC, DC, sometimes both, while remaining HC. Kyle is following the paths of both men.

Just a lot to take on when on your first HC job.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Originally posted by Jeepzilla:
To me it read as if the 49ers marketing Dept helped write it.
But that's my opinion, which obviously that entire article is an opinion.

Well that would explain it, i guess. Whoever did write it tho, is definitely deep on the inside.

It is the first time in 3 yrs, however, i got an explanation for some odd drafting, or trades, financial explanation as to how one manages the cap yet at the same time refurbishes the talent on the squad. It also had a section on keeping your scheme up to date.

For me, it just explained some nagging questions, not only the whys of something but the hows. Even if the marketing dept wrote it, it was filled with answers to things kyle has done, that seemed strange.

I don't think that is where it came from tho. I would guess a former scout for the 9ers or something like that. Whoever it was, the guy was well informed.

Maybe Joan in accounting?

I agree on it being a well written article. The guy knows his stuff, definitely. We can quibble about player grades, but even between the 49er staffs, you get quibbling between QW and Bosa.

If I was speculating on who wrote the article, it would be between AB81, NCommand, Hero, JD, THL and NY85.
[ Edited by Giedi on May 14, 2019 at 5:27 PM ]
it will be interesting to see what he will do with all the RB that can play WR and the WR he drafted that can play RB. I have a feeling McKinnon and Coleman will line in the backfield and motion to slot WR. They are going to try to get a LB to cover McKinnon/Coleman or one of the WR and that will be a mismatch. Breida can line up as a slot WR. there are a lot of possibility. I hope it all works out and they have a great offense.

  • thl408
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Originally posted by tommyncal:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by thl408:
That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.
Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.

It's not saying that at all. Don't look at the color of the players. The writer gives a player a number value, could be any value you choose, that he believes is ' significantly better than league average for starters' and ' no worse than league average for backups'.
When I did my own spread sheet I came up with a 70-75% for starters (only better than average) and 50% for solid backups (no worse than average). I think that is more reasonable and I will also check after 4 & 8 games into the season. Deebo, by then, might be considered better than average.
As far as your list goes, Verrett was above average , when healthy; he didn't give Ward any points; I'd consider T Coleman the starter, over Jet, and consider him better than average, Solly & Taylor, i agree; Tartt, Person & Williams are all considered 'above average' on PFF grades. The grading is all very subjective, but the concept on how to measure the team's progress is better than listening to some individual poster say 'this team sucks'.

At the bottom it states: Elite Starters 89%. It's clear that I don't understand that portion of the chart. Don't pay attention to the colors? Got it.
Under "Above Average Starter" it lists players I don't consider above average. If the author thinks they are then he and I disagree, fine. I just see it as a very optimistic picture of the roster. "Significantly above average"...Thomas/AA, Warner, Taylor, Deebo, Pettis - significantly above. I don't see it that way. "Significantly" has lots of syllables so it carries a lot of weight. When I think of 'significantly above average' I think of pro bowl level. Elite is like an all-pro.

I also don't like how he assumes rookies will perform to their potential. The logic I use to not assume a rookie will play to his potential is the same logic I use to say a struggling rookie should be given time to develop after 1 year in the league - patience - have to wait till they play/develop to give them a performance grade.

KStreet is a solid backup according to the author. Guy hasn't played a preseason snap. Same with KSmith the rookie TE, considered a solid backup. It's just littered with best case scenarios that I can't take his breakdown chart seriously. The idea behind the breakdown is cool though. Agree with the bolded.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Originally posted by Giedi:
I don't see a problem of Kyle keeping control over the defensive side in terms of an overall kind of direction. I just hope he doesn't get pulled in too many directions and is able to delegate. Bellicheat ran into some of that with the Browns when his DC was Nick Saben and his OC was (I think) Gilbride. He was too stretched to do much of anything other than get the browns an average season. He learned his lesson after the Jets/Patriots hiring fiasco that landed him his HC gig in New England. He learned a lot about the 49er way after he replaced Cheat Carroll in New England, Kraft got some schooling of the cap and how you build dynasties from Cheat Carroll and Kraft transferred that to Bellicheat.

Well, two things. We all have already seen kyle struggle with HCing while OCing. While McVay was busy scheming over at the bench, Kyle was trying to juggle one too many balls in the air. McVay had handed D off to Wade Phillips.

That said, kyle is well aware of the massive uproar when a winning team or esp SB team, loses its OC, or DC at end of season. It causes a major problem for getting yet another OC and /or DC. So kyle took a page out of BWs and BBs book and is learning both OC and DCing simultaneously while HCing. He not only has never been a HC before, but neither has he been a DC before.

Hence, altho purely supposition, i think that is why Saleh, never a DC before, but a good guy and good LB coach became DC. But in the back of his mind , i believe kyle is angling for being his own DC, also, which will eliminate the chaos when his DC moves on to greener pastures. So kyle is learning with Saleh, and in time, will be able to have his DC or OC(in the future) come and go, as long as he knows how to be both OC/DC...from his HC perch....he won't miss a beat..

BW knew how to coach every position on the team, but was held back by his HC from becoming HC. He came here much later than many young HCs now. BB was a DC who taught himself OCing, and in the process, prevented the disruption when he lost OC, DC, sometimes both, while remaining HC. Kyle is following the paths of both men.

Just a lot to take on when on your first HC job.

A couple of points: Kyle was way behind McVay from the get go due to the Falcons run to the Super Bowl. McVay had a much deeper pool of talent to choose a DC from and more time to assimilate with him. He also inherited a better roster than Kyle. All this means that Kyle was able to hire Salah and allow him to learn to be a DC because there was no pressure to win right out of the gate. There were player evaluations to get through, critique of coaching staff after season one to manage, etc. So the slow start was actually inevitable for Kyle's first season, imho.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Well, two things. We all have already seen kyle struggle with HCing while OCing. While McVay was busy scheming over at the bench, Kyle was trying to juggle one too many balls in the air. McVay had handed D off to Wade Phillips.

That said, kyle is well aware of the massive uproar when a winning team or esp SB team, loses its OC, or DC at end of season. It causes a major problem for getting yet another OC and /or DC. So kyle took a page out of BWs and BBs book and is learning both OC and DCing simultaneously while HCing. He not only has never been a HC before, but neither has he been a DC before.

Hence, altho purely supposition, i think that is why Saleh, never a DC before, but a good guy and good LB coach became DC. But in the back of his mind , i believe kyle is angling for being his own DC, also, which will eliminate the chaos when his DC moves on to greener pastures. So kyle is learning with Saleh, and in time, will be able to have his DC or OC(in the future) come and go, as long as he knows how to be both OC/DC...from his HC perch....he won't miss a beat..

BW knew how to coach every position on the team, but was held back by his HC from becoming HC. He came here much later than many young HCs now. BB was a DC who taught himself OCing, and in the process, prevented the disruption when he lost OC, DC, sometimes both, while remaining HC. Kyle is following the paths of both men.

Just a lot to take on when on your first HC job.

Yeah, I think that's the direction he wants to go. Bellicheat can get away being DC, but he also played offense in college. He was so smart as a college player at Wellesley he was basically the College Head Coach's OC. Kyle had a world class football coaching education with his dad who's no chump change as a coach himself. So I agree, both of these guys can coach all 22 positions with not much problems, in my opinion. Thank god we got the younger one.

Having said that, coaching defense is more about talent acquisition and talent development than X's and O's. But yeah, him coaching with Monte Kiffen should help his DC chops.
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by tommyncal:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by thl408:
That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.
Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.

It's not saying that at all. Don't look at the color of the players. The writer gives a player a number value, could be any value you choose, that he believes is ' significantly better than league average for starters' and ' no worse than league average for backups'.
When I did my own spread sheet I came up with a 70-75% for starters (only better than average) and 50% for solid backups (no worse than average). I think that is more reasonable and I will also check after 4 & 8 games into the season. Deebo, by then, might be considered better than average.
As far as your list goes, Verrett was above average , when healthy; he didn't give Ward any points; I'd consider T Coleman the starter, over Jet, and consider him better than average, Solly & Taylor, i agree; Tartt, Person & Williams are all considered 'above average' on PFF grades. The grading is all very subjective, but the concept on how to measure the team's progress is better than listening to some individual poster say 'this team sucks'.

At the bottom it states: Elite Starters 89%. It's clear that I don't understand that portion of the chart. Don't pay attention to the colors? Got it.
Under "Above Average Starter" it lists players I don't consider above average. If the author thinks they are then he and I disagree, fine. I just see it as a very optimistic picture of the roster. "Significantly above average"...Thomas/AA, Warner, Taylor, Deebo, Pettis - significantly above. I don't see it that way. "Significantly" has lots of syllables so it carries a lot of weight. When I think of 'significantly above average' I think of pro bowl level. Elite is like an all-pro.

I also don't like how he assumes rookies will perform to their potential. The logic I use to not assume a rookie will play to his potential is the same logic I use to say a struggling rookie should be given time to develop after 1 year in the league - patience - have to wait till they play/develop to give them a performance grade.

KStreet is a solid backup according to the author. Guy hasn't played a preseason snap. Same with KSmith the rookie TE, considered a solid backup. It's just littered with best case tscenarios that I can't take his breakdown chart seriously. The idea behind the breakdown is cool though. Agree with the bolded.

I don't know why it says 'elite starters', it shouldn't. The 89% comes from the sum of the point value he assigned each player in the starter column (16+16+8 . . etc) for a total of 146 points, divided by the total possible of 164. Thus a 89% of starters. The only elite starters he lists are in red (Jimmy, Bosa, Buckner & Kittle).
It is way too optimistic for me too, that is why it is so subjective. But it does give you a very solid way of assessing the quality of the players on the team. Like I said, I rated the starters at 70-75%, while he rated them at 89%. You might rate them at 60%. That is all fine, the difference only comes from how we, personally, value a player.
Everybody that reads that article should break it down and post their percentage. I think it would be a very cool thread!
Agree, Tommy, but i didin't put much stock in the valuations, in that they were, as you said, pretty much different than the way i saw them. The comment about Kaden not even playing , as well as others....that is all just supposition and based on nada. It was the idea behind it that hooked me. Even with valuations i gave a number of players, it still points to a team that is "getting there" and we all know it has great depth at RB, WR, DT (interiors), and lacks DBs, OGs, plus backups for OL.

Plenty of backups for DBs...heck they all are. We are short starters there, save uncle Sherm. Still when you use your own valuations of players, it comes out about right. It is a great way to show that what KS and JL have done makes sense....altho i am not sure just exactly else it shows. The fact some wag in the marketing dept wrote this....while funny, whoever it was, needs to coach up some DBs and OGs this yr and we might do some damage. Still i give this guy strong marks for what he has done, and literally explained what went down here. Frankly i was puzzled by most of it....couldn't see rhyme nor nreason for the picks and trades, drafts. Now I do and i see why. So for me, any way, it was a Good exercise.
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