Unique new way to build a SB dynasty.

Originally posted by tommyncal:

I wasn't quite sure what thread to post this article in, or how, but I thought it was well worth reading. link

There are a lot of debatable points in the article, but I found his concept to determine how a team is built and the quality of the players to be sound. I didn't agree with a lot of the values he placed on certain players, but the result can be changed with your own values. I prefer it to the 'Tiers' offered up by Oscar & David.

" I go beyond the futility of second-guessing individual decisions made by paid professionals at 4949 Centennial and try instead to read between the lines of those moves. My objective is to better understand the logic of Lynch-Shanahan in their efforts to rebuild this franchise."

"a championship-caliber team must have above-average starters (preferably with a sprinkling of elite talent at key positions like QB and EDGE) and "solid" backup"

"But how do we assess quality?"

Should CB1 be placed in Tier A along with QB & EDGE? Should the tiers be ranked different, from team to team. A 4-3 team values LB's less than a 3-4 team? One thing it does show is the difference between the starting team in 2017 and the 2019 team.
And no, it doesn't guarantee wins. It's a totally subjective concept to evaluate the team and examine why Shanny/Lynch sign certain players

If you have an elite QB and an elite edge rusher, I think you can safely say you move a good DB down to tier 2. If you are missing a QB, then you have to have a stronger defense and move a DB to tier one.

The difference between 3-4 and a 4-3 is not really significant. It's all about mis-matches and assignments. a 3-4 team can rush four men and drop 3, (and same with a 4-3 team, drop 4 and rush 3) It's really more about disguising coverges and schemes. And matching your talent to the scheme that makes your players play best.

^^^Strongly encourage one and all to go to link and read the entire piece. Wish it could be copied en Toto and brot over here. This is a brilliant approach to understanding FAs, Drafts, and the financial end of the game, how much to pay whom, when and how to rotate it so you always have elite players somewhere thruout the squad that you can afford.

This is the one best explanation for what kyle and john have done that i have read to date. Frankly, my thread was a bit tongue in cheek, but anyone who goes to the link above will see in a heartbeat just what the heck is going on...and why. It is an exquisite piece and should be required reading for any diehard 9er fan. It also will explain some "Unexplainables" since the arrival of JL/KS. Truly a landmark piece on the 49ers...the whys, the hows, and the when's..

Best post i have read on these pages ever. Makes me wonder about either some spectacular insider info or a mind that thinks way different than most of ours. You will not read a better explanation of what has happened since kyle and john arrived on scene. Whoever this guy is , he has remarkable insight and everything done to date, fits in. Truly must read piece.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
^^^Strongly encourage one and all to go to link and read the entire piece. Wish it could be copied en Toto and brot over here. This is a brilliant approach to understanding FAs, Drafts, and the financial end of the game, how much to pay whom, when and how to rotate it so you always have elite players somewhere thruout the squad that you can afford.

This is the one best explanation for what kyle and john have done that i have read to date. Frankly, my thread was a bit tongue in cheek, but anyone who goes to the link above will see in a heartbeat just what the heck is going on...and why. It is an exquisite piece and should be required reading for any diehard 9er fan. It also will explain some "Unexplainables" since the arrival of JL/KS. Truly a landmark piece on the 49ers...the whys, the hows, and the when's..

Best post i have read on these pages ever. Makes me wonder about either some spectacular insider info or a mind that thinks way different than most of ours. You will not read a better explanation of what has happened since kyle and john arrived on scene. Whoever this guy is , he has remarkable insight and everything done to date, fits in. Truly must read piece.

Totally agree, best article on how KS/JL are building this team. I truly wanted to copy and paste 90% of the article.

Excellent article tommyncal, thanks. And thanks for just posting the link. That was a .

As for the article itself it felt to me like it was purely an introduction. As good as it was I wanted it to go on a lot further and deeper. Whoever Reasonable Opinion is, I should like to talk to him.

But we have enough football brains here. If anyone wants to take this article and discuss it further, that would be great. It needs a separate thread which could be protected against trolling and so forth. Anyone?

Originally posted by English:
Excellent article tommyncal, thanks. And thanks for just posting the link. That was a .

As for the article itself it felt to me like it was purely an introduction. As good as it was I wanted it to go on a lot further and deeper. Whoever Reasonable Opinion is, I should like to talk to him.

But we have enough football brains here. If anyone wants to take this article and discuss it further, that would be great. It needs a separate thread which could be protected against trolling and so forth. Anyone?

Anyone feel free to move it or start new thread. I actually made my own spread sheet and have been moving positions into different tiers, along with lowering values of certain players. I don't know if there is a site that shows nfl salary contracts by positions. I'm sure that is a part of 'Reasonable Opinions ' 'current market value', when building his positional tiers.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
The Hurd pick was a shocker, but then again, when HC Kyle is scheming up plays, he is totally unpredictable, and can change in a heartbeat. Something doesn't work? Here , try this then. Or that. And boom, the opponents D is left dumbfounded, and in the dust. So yes it was a double pump fake out when Hurd's name came down.

Basically there are two ways to protect a QB, and a FR QB is even more important. Classic NFL protecting your QB entails getting more and quicker, stonger, bigger OLs. And not just guys who can run block...guys who can protect the passer. It isn't uncommon for an OL to do one well..but not the other.

For HC Shanahan, however, there is seemingly another route to pass protection...and that is to have so many multitalented targets who can get open quickly that they can't all be covered. If we come out in Run formation, and the opposition counters in Base, we now have a handful of guys in running sets who can become not just targets but superb targets. We have not however been able to do this successfully in the RZ. With Hurd, now we can. Line him up as a RB against a Base D, and he becomes a primary receiver. Same for Au jus. If we come out in a run formation on 3rd and short, kyle now has ability to turn our Run sets into passing ones.

So this time honored idea of having your QB completely , fully protected, is going to be challenged by HC Kyle, who has gone light on OGs, and heavy on multi talented WRs who can run. It seems whatever set kyle comes out in, if the D shifts to run D, then kyle changes the play to pass play,...but uses the same people he would have used against a run D.

That is where these multi talented , or multifaceted WRs come in. Or same for Au Jus. He comes in , D Shifts to Run D. Then kyle dials up Au jus , or Hurd in a passing play.

Clever line of thinking, and a bit risky for your QB. If he gets pasted,,, or has his knees cut out from under him., then not good news. But if done in 2.0 seconds, (Eli M needs 2.5,, and Brady same), then maybe, just maybe this interesting approach works out. Hurd also gives us that big WR in the RZ and on 3rd and long, with his jumping ability PLUS his monstrous sized hands.

So, maybe not getting starting OGs to protect JimmyG doesn't work out so badly after all. And if kyle can get this unusual method of offensive countering of D sets actually going, , maybe, just maybe, we have something special here.

The only downside, and it is a large one, if guys can't get open, heaven help our Qb.

What you're describing isn't a "new" way, it's an old way. That's what our Offense did through the 80's and 90's. You had teams like the Giants, Steelers and Cowboys doing it the bigger, better OL way, then you had the WCO guys doing it the way you're talking about. It's also why BW like QB's who could move. You not only threatened the DL horizontally in the run game, you could move the launch point and disrupt their pass rush moves. If guys like to take inside moves? You move the launch point outside and they ran themselves out of the play. You got a QB who can throw on the run? Bootleg passes.

Randy Cross was a superb OL during his time with us but was widely considered too small before he was with us. Mark Schlereth was very undersized for a guard but worked great in Mike Shanahan's system.

It's why BW loved Roger Craig. He was a dynamic weapon in the run game and pass game.

If you see the guys they're trending towards, it's those multi-attack threats. They paid a lot for a Fullback who's not only a great blocker but a great receiver. They picked a tweener TE who can block but is a dynamic passing threat. They picked up a big WR who can block but can also be a great route runner. They paid big for a RB who has explosive speed in the run game but was at his best as a receiver.

Originally posted by T-9ers:
I seem to remember his father having one of the best offensive lines I've ever seen. Look, you just don't rewrite the way the game is played overnight. Putting all this pressure in Jimmy G to always be on is A game when he hasn't even proven he can do it for a whole season isn't something they are doing on purpose. They just honestly think what they have is good enough just like their analysis of our suspect defensive backfield. If the o-line stinks this year, we will definitely be putting more resources into it, hopefully we just don't get the qb killed in the meantime.

2017: I bought in to the "We don't need a franchise QB, Kyle will 'scheme' us to 8 wins.
2018: We got our franchise QB. 5 straight wins ... will convert to ......Then Jimmy G looks mortal followed by season ending injury.
2019: I think we got too cute in the draft and are driven by too much scheme and skipping fundamentals. I think our 3rd/4th picks should have gone OL/DB.

Baalke got too cute with injured players. Like all great strategies, they are only great if they work out.
He would miss on his first top 2 or all four draft picks then hit on a 5 (Dial and Aaron Lynch). So familiar: Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster (swing and a miss) but George Kittle.
I'm still not happy about dumping Trent Brown. Had to get McGlinchey because of the ZBS? And now we can't pass block at RT near as well (and spent a first round pick). Also his scheme seems to require a very durable QB since much of the scheming and sending out many receivers with less protection. Jimmy G doesn't seem to the ultimate Mr. Durable.

I hope to be proved wrong and welcome anyone mid season to let me know how wrong I am and you don't even have to be nice.

That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. Deebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

The ultimate hybrid player would be a QB who could run (Steve young anyone? ) I love the article and his previous ones too about building the team.

The point I'm trying to make is that's the next step for Kyle. Getting a hybrid QB. Now the reason Kaepernick isn't on the team is because of his QB skills in the Shanahan system.


Can you imagine if Kyle can get a hybrid Steve Young 2.0 that is as good a passer as Jimmy and as good a runner as Steve. Who can forget Steve's broken field running against the top of the line Vikings defense in the 1989 season!

Originally posted by OldJoe:

Originally posted by T-9ers:

I seem to remember his father having one of the best offensive lines I've ever seen. Look, you just don't rewrite the way the game is played overnight. Putting all this pressure in Jimmy G to always be on is A game when he hasn't even proven he can do it for a whole season isn't something they are doing on purpose. They just honestly think what they have is good enough just like their analysis of our suspect defensive backfield. If the o-line stinks this year, we will definitely be putting more resources into it, hopefully we just don't get the qb killed in the meantime.

2017: I bought in to the "We don't need a franchise QB, Kyle will 'scheme' us to 8 wins.
2018: We got our franchise QB. 5 straight wins ... will convert to ......Then Jimmy G looks mortal followed by season ending injury.
2019: I think we got too cute in the draft and are driven by too much scheme and skipping fundamentals. I think our 3rd/4th picks should have gone OL/DB.

Baalke got too cute with injured players. Like all great strategies, they are only great if they work out.
He would miss on his first top 2 or all four draft picks then hit on a 5 (Dial and Aaron Lynch). So familiar: Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster (swing and a miss) but George Kittle.
I'm still not happy about dumping Trent Brown. Had to get McGlinchey because of the ZBS? And now we can't pass block at RT near as well (and spent a first round pick). Also his scheme seems to require a very durable QB since much of the scheming and sending out many receivers with less protection. Jimmy G doesn't seem to the ultimate Mr. Durable.

I hope to be proved wrong and welcome anyone mid season to let me know how wrong I am and you don't even have to be nice.

Keep in mind the overriding nature that affects all talent acquisition decisons. - the cap. Its easy to just draft players without really paying attention to the cap, but I know first hand (the Donahue - erickson years)how fast you can get into cap trouble by just drafting one or two first round busts and a high priced free agent bust.

The cap is the limiter on your free agency acquisitions, and it can drive your draft and can force unwanted trades if you aren't careful.

Originally posted by thl408:

That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by OldJoe:

Originally posted by T-9ers:

I seem to remember his father having one of the best offensive lines I've ever seen. Look, you just don't rewrite the way the game is played overnight. Putting all this pressure in Jimmy G to always be on is A game when he hasn't even proven he can do it for a whole season isn't something they are doing on purpose. They just honestly think what they have is good enough just like their analysis of our suspect defensive backfield. If the o-line stinks this year, we will definitely be putting more resources into it, hopefully we just don't get the qb killed in the meantime.

2017: I bought in to the "We don't need a franchise QB, Kyle will 'scheme' us to 8 wins.
2018: We got our franchise QB. 5 straight wins ... will convert to ......Then Jimmy G looks mortal followed by season ending injury.
2019: I think we got too cute in the draft and are driven by too much scheme and skipping fundamentals. I think our 3rd/4th picks should have gone OL/DB.

Baalke got too cute with injured players. Like all great strategies, they are only great if they work out.
He would miss on his first top 2 or all four draft picks then hit on a 5 (Dial and Aaron Lynch). So familiar: Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster (swing and a miss) but George Kittle.
I'm still not happy about dumping Trent Brown. Had to get McGlinchey because of the ZBS? And now we can't pass block at RT near as well (and spent a first round pick). Also his scheme seems to require a very durable QB since much of the scheming and sending out many receivers with less protection. Jimmy G doesn't seem to the ultimate Mr. Durable.

I hope to be proved wrong and welcome anyone mid season to let me know how wrong I am and you don't even have to be nice.

Keep in mind the overriding nature that affects all talent acquisition decisons. - the cap. Its easy to just draft players without really paying attention to the cap, but I know first hand (the Donahue - erickson years)how fast you can get into cap trouble by just drafting one or two first round busts and a high priced free agent bust.

The cap is the limiter on your free agency acquisitions, and it can drive your draft and can force unwanted trades if you aren't careful.

That was one of the neat things about the NN article by Reasonable Opinion. He laid out nice and logically, how you draft /trade a QB and Edge, perhaps a CB1, and then start assembling pieces. He breaks down positions into 4 tiers, #1 being QB,, Edge. And on down the line. Then in the section "Financial "
He explains perfectly how you pay your QB on a 5 yr cheap deal, same for Edge, but then you get backup guys who can also be there in case of injury.

Next he notes they pay one Interior, and get a 2nd on the 5 yr cheap. CB1 the same, ,and you keep rotating those guys out .He makes the case for ET, and how great he would have been...but not with the $15 mil x4 yrs. Why? because what do you do if one of our two young guys hit it big...ie, they turn out to be great DBs...if you paid ET already, you would have to let them go...i didn't know his thinking back then but that was exactly why I' didn't want ET once i found out the contract demands. If you haven't read it, Giedi, i would suggest it. How you pay for it is his last topic and it sure looks a lot like the way KS and JL have been operating. Same goes for player personnel, and having a modern up to date scheme, and you know kyle has one.

One thing not covered, was coaches...particularly DC. I've posted before and i stick by it, that kyle kept saleh on because he wants to be his own DC also,

Granted, he wants a DC, but kyle wants to be making D decisions. So saleh stays and Kocurek and Woods come in. This was only thing not covered in NN article

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

The Hurd pick was a shocker, but then again, when HC Kyle is scheming up plays, he is totally unpredictable, and can change in a heartbeat. Something doesn't work? Here , try this then. Or that. And boom, the opponents D is left dumbfounded, and in the dust. So yes it was a double pump fake out when Hurd's name came down.

Basically there are two ways to protect a QB, and a FR QB is even more important. Classic NFL protecting your QB entails getting more and quicker, stonger, bigger OLs. And not just guys who can run block...guys who can protect the passer. It isn't uncommon for an OL to do one well..but not the other.

For HC Shanahan, however, there is seemingly another route to pass protection...and that is to have so many multitalented targets who can get open quickly that they can't all be covered. If we come out in Run formation, and the opposition counters in Base, we now have a handful of guys in running sets who can become not just targets but superb targets. We have not however been able to do this successfully in the RZ. With Hurd, now we can. Line him up as a RB against a Base D, and he becomes a primary receiver. Same for Au jus. If we come out in a run formation on 3rd and short, kyle now has ability to turn our Run sets into passing ones.

So this time honored idea of having your QB completely , fully protected, is going to be challenged by HC Kyle, who has gone light on OGs, and heavy on multi talented WRs who can run. It seems whatever set kyle comes out in, if the D shifts to run D, then kyle changes the play to pass play,...but uses the same people he would have used against a run D.

That is where these multi talented , or multifaceted WRs come in. Or same for Au Jus. He comes in , D Shifts to Run D. Then kyle dials up Au jus , or Hurd in a passing play.

Clever line of thinking, and a bit risky for your QB. If he gets pasted,,, or has his knees cut out from under him., then not good news. But if done in 2.0 seconds, (Eli M needs 2.5,, and Brady same), then maybe, just maybe this interesting approach works out. Hurd also gives us that big WR in the RZ and on 3rd and long, with his jumping ability PLUS his monstrous sized hands.

So, maybe not getting starting OGs to protect JimmyG doesn't work out so badly after all. And if kyle can get this unusual method of offensive countering of D sets actually going, , maybe, just maybe, we have something special here.

The only downside, and it is a large one, if guys can't get open, heaven help our Qb.

What you're describing isn't a "new" way, it's an old way. That's what our Offense did through the 80's and 90's. You had teams like the Giants, Steelers and Cowboys doing it the bigger, better OL way, then you had the WCO guys doing it the way you're talking about. It's also why BW like QB's who could move. You not only threatened the DL horizontally in the run game, you could move the launch point and disrupt their pass rush moves. If guys like to take inside moves? You move the launch point outside and they ran themselves out of the play. You got a QB who can throw on the run? Bootleg passes.

Randy Cross was a superb OL during his time with us but was widely considered too small before he was with us. Mark Schlereth was very undersized for a guard but worked great in Mike Shanahan's system.

It's why BW loved Roger Craig. He was a dynamic weapon in the run game and pass game.

If you see the guys they're trending towards, it's those multi-attack threats. They paid a lot for a Fullback who's not only a great blocker but a great receiver. They picked a tweener TE who can block but is a dynamic passing threat. They picked up a big WR who can block but can also be a great route runner. They paid big for a RB who has explosive speed in the run game but was at his best as a receiver.

I knew roger and rath were multi use guys, but not to the extent that kyle does this. The other thing tho, is that BW may have had smaller OL guys, but they still could provide Joe with some protection. Kyle has not done that so far....but i hope that changes this yr. ZBS is fine, fun actually, but still those guys need to be able to block a little bit to protect JimmyG. BW always protected his QBs. kyle doesn't seem to be of that mindset,...unfortunately..i just hope it's enough.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by thl408:
That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.

Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by thl408:

That NN article was extremely generous when labeling "above average starters". I think I understand that breakdown chart. zDeebo, who hasn't played a single snap is an above average starter. Verrett, Ward, Jet, Solly, Taylor, Tartt, Person, Kwaun Williams, all above average starters. I'm not on board with those designations. I like the section about 'Adapting to modern trends'.

I think it's a guess on the writers part about the above bolded. But you can bet on that when your coach is Kyle Shanahan.

Yes it's an optimistic projection that every young player plays up to their potential, as well as injured players that haven't played a down as a 49er (Verrett, Jet). I still don't understand that chart in full because looking at the roster, I just don't see 89% elite starters. Is that saying that 89% of the starters are considered elite? That's borderline delusional if I'm understanding that chart correctly. Perhaps the author's definition of 'elite' is just very different than mine.

To me it read as if the 49ers marketing Dept helped write it.
But that's my opinion, which obviously that entire article is an opinion.