Roster Outlook (Post FA Round 1)

Originally posted by Karma:
Maybe, but I don't think he is the LEO in base, particularly if Bosa is the pick. Bosa is a better run supporter and playing Ford at SAM would allow him to rush from multiple angles and multiple stances. Bosa is pretty much a three point stance guy. And Ford really doesn't have to cover as a LB because that is a strength of both Warner and Alexander.

SAM has to set the edge as well as cover in base. If Bosa is the pick, Ford doesn't play in base or rotates with Bosa. He's a big liability at SAM in base downs.

Originally posted by OsBoogie:
on offense

RB: I don't think McKinnon is a lock. I think Mostert is more of a sure thing to be on the roster.

WR: I think we'll add someone in day 2 to compete for Bourne's spot at the Z but I don't think his roster spot is in jeopardy. James should be safe as well. Goodwin is not a lock in my mind however.

TE: I think we very well could look at an upgrade behind Kittle. He's the only lock there.

OL: I think Magnuson and Garnett are locks this season. Coleman is pretty close to a lock as well.

McKinnon is a lock based on health. If he is healthy, he is there. All three RBs can also lineup as WRs, so they can be on the field with each other. McKinnon is too dynamic to let go. Mostert definitely has the edge, but I think Wilson will be given a chance.

Bourne and James are definitely the most in jeopardy but both have a really good shot. How can you say Goodwin is not a lock? He missed time last year due to some incredibly difficult personal matters, but he is still the best WR on the team until Pettis gets more experience.

Maybe another TE, but only if the board falls that way. I don't see it eclipsing some of the other needs.

All three of Magnuson, Garnett, and Coleman could definitely make it, but they will need to bring in a guy or two to push them. None of them has earned a spot yet. The top five have.

Originally posted by OsBoogie:

Originally posted by Karma:
Maybe, but I don't think he is the LEO in base, particularly if Bosa is the pick. Bosa is a better run supporter and playing Ford at SAM would allow him to rush from multiple angles and multiple stances. Bosa is pretty much a three point stance guy. And Ford really doesn't have to cover as a LB because that is a strength of both Warner and Alexander.

SAM has to set the edge as well as cover in base. If Bosa is the pick, Ford doesn't play in base or rotates with Bosa. He's a big liability at SAM in base downs.

SAM sets the edge from space rather than the point of attack, which I think is Ford's strength.

How is he a liability in base? We already have two coverage LBs and he moves well in space.

So Bosa and a single-high safety in rounds 1 and 2 should give us an elite D?

Originally posted by All22:
So Bosa and a single-high safety in rounds 1 and 2 should give us an elite D?

Maybe not elite, but it should be good!

Originally posted by Karma:
McKinnon is a lock based on health. If he is healthy, he is there. All three RBs can also lineup as WRs, so they can be on the field with each other. McKinnon is too dynamic to let go. Mostert definitely has the edge, but I think Wilson will be given a chance.

Bourne and James are definitely the most in jeopardy but both have a really good shot. How can you say Goodwin is not a lock? He missed time last year due to some incredibly difficult personal matters, but he is still the best WR on the team until Pettis gets more experience.

Maybe another TE, but only if the board falls that way. I don't see it eclipsing some of the other needs.

All three of Magnuson, Garnett, and Coleman could definitely make it, but they will need to bring in a guy or two to push them. None of them has earned a spot yet. The top five have.

McKinnon could be cut. I don't believe we carry 4 RB's plus a FB on the 53. Coleman brings a lot of the same things as McKinnon. If he's on the roster after preseason, it's likely on PUP in case of injuries to Coleman/Brieda. His contract is easy to get out of. Mostert is a ST beast and the reason we kept him.

Goodwin didn't start when he came back healthy. Pettis kept the X and Bourne started at the Z. I think the talk of getting another starter is only because Bourne hasn't shown enough and Goodwin can't be trusted. If we have too many X and slots, Goodwin is in danger based of salary alone.

Originally posted by Karma:
SAM sets the edge from space rather than the point of attack, which I think is Ford's strength.

How is he a liability in base? We already have two coverage LBs and he moves well in space.

Ford gets blown off even as a 3-4 OLB setting the edge. Ford has no strength other than pass rush. Unless he transforms like he said he will to play the run better, you can forget about it.

Originally posted by All22:

So Bosa and a single-high safety in rounds 1 and 2 should give us an elite D?

Maybe, there is about three single high safeties in this draft and all of them might go in the first. If that happens Then we'll have to pray a decent receiver is sitting in there in the third and hope Dante and Goodwin can hold it down as a 1 and 2.

Team has really put it self in a bind,

The secondary looked terrible last year but a few things to keep in mind.
1. They are all young with the exception of Sherman and Ward. 2nd and 3rd year players often make big strides.
2. They had a ton of injuries to this unit and were playing guys out of position most of the year just to get 4 guys on the field.
3. Maybe the most important. Our pass rush was terrible and if you give the QB enough time someone will get open. This years pass rush should be much better with Ford and a high drafted edge rusher.

Originally posted by Karma:
The start of Free Agency is a lot like being at Walmart on Black Friday. It's confusing, you want to buy everything, and everyone seems to be sweating. Now that the initial rush is over, I think it is time to look at each of the position groups and analyze what we have, what we need, and where we are in good shape.

Defense:

Defensive Line (8-9 players will make the final roster)

• Locks (6): Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, D.J. Jones, Ronald Blair, Sheldon Day
• In the Hunt (4): Kentavius Street, Julian Taylor, Ryan Delaire, Cassius Marsh ( )
• Need: High priority. Need at least 1-2 players.
• Outlook: This group is incredibly deep up the middle. While Jones is the only true Nose Tackle on the team, Sheldon Day has some experience there and the majority of snaps will be from a nickel or rush defense anyway. The real weakness is on the edge. Marsh was useless there last year and Blair figures to be a serviceable back-up at best. No other player on the roster figures to line up there full time. Dee Ford will probably see quite a few snaps with his hand in the ground, but I am counting him as a LB for now because I believe they will have him rushing from the SAM position or a two point stance. One of Street and Taylor will most likely make the roster, if not both, so that puts the group at 7-8 players. Adding an edge in the draft is essential and Lynch could possibly add a guy who could play NT just to push Jones.

Linebackers (6-7 players)

• Locks (5): Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, Elijah Lee, Malcolm Smith
• In the Hunt (5): Brock Coyle, Dekoda Watson, James Onwualu, Pita Taumoepenu, Mark Nzeocha (If he is resigned)
• Need: Low priority.
• Outlook: This group represents the major investment of the off-season. Many of you might disagree with me that Ford is a SAM, but it is the best way to get him on the field as much as possible. Warner, Alexander, and Ford are a HUGE upgrade as a starting trio and should be the heartbeat of the defense. Elijah Lee played pretty well as a surprise starter last year and may be on his way to being a starter somewhere else, so he makes a nice back-up to Alexander and Warner. Smith restructured his contract for the team and probably stays for one more year. The next roster spot will be a battle between Watson, Pita, and possibly Nzeocha to be the primary SAM back-up. Watson, if healthy, probably has the edge, but if Pita can show progress he could be an explosive rotation rusher. If they keep 7, he probably makes it.

Safeties (4-5 players)

• Locks (3): Jaquiski Tartt, Marcel Harris, Adrian Colbert
• In the Hunt (2): Terrell Williams, Antone Exum (If he is resigned)
• Need: High Priority. Need a single high safety.
• Outlook: The most disappointing outcome of this free agency period for many fans here was the team did not come away with Earl Thomas. Colbert regressed in his second season after coming in with high expectations. Tartt has been a solid safety and has switched between FS and SS. He, at the very least, offers the team a solid starter. Harris was an unknown for most of the season as he recovered from an Achilles tear in college. When he did see the field, he was aggressive and fun to watch. Still, he had plenty of rust as he misread or mistimed several plays. But the potential to be a thumping in-the-box safety is there. Also, a guy like D.J. Reed might see some snaps in the single-high FS position. He has experience there in college and might have the speed to stay there. Tarvarius Moore is also a possibility, but I have them both starting the year as CBs. Exum did some nice things last year, but the overall impression of this group is that no one has distinguished himself as a star or a play-maker. The historically low number of interceptions last year is either an aberration or a sign that we need to use a high pick to sort out this position. Oh, and Jimmie Ward's back.

Cornerbacks (5-6 players)

• Locks (4): Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, Tarvarius Moore, D.J. Reed
• In the Hunt (7): K'Waun Williams,Jimmie Ward, Greg Mabin, Tarvarus McFadden, Tyvis Powell, Emmanuel Moseley, Tyree Robinson
• Need: Medium priority. A solid vet or high round rookie would definitely help this group.
• Outlook: Sherman is still playing at a high level. Witherspoon took a big step back last year, so his future is uncertain. Reed flashed in his first year and probably has the inside track to be the slot corner ahead of Williams. Moore got on the field and showed some physicality and speed, but he is still raw. Ward is not a bad player, but he is just always hurt, so I am not counting on him to do anything. The rest of the guys here are in a pack. Whoever stands out has a shot at a roster spot. I am more optimistic than most about this position. I think Witherspoon is in line for a bounce back year and I think the other young guys will take a step forward.

Offense:

Quarterback (2-3 players):

• Locks (3): Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens
• In the Hunt (0): No one else on the roster
• Need: None
• Outlook: The success of this team depends on the health of Jimmy G. As much as I believe Beathard and Mullens are solid back-ups in this league, neither of them is likely to take this team to the playoffs. Some folks want us to consider trading either of those guys, but that is somewhat ridiculous. I think teams recognize Mullens' success as being the result of Shanahan's offense more than Mullens' supreme talent. What Beathard and Mullens do bring to this team is hard work, intelligence and the potential to win a game or two as needed. The team will probably bring in an UDFA to groom on the practice squad, but otherwise, this group is good to go.

Running Backs (4-5 players)

• Locks (4): Jerick McKinnon, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Kyle Juszczyk
• In the Hunt (3): Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Matt Dayes
• Need: Low priority/None
• Outlook: Signing Coleman surprised many, considering the investment made in McKinnon last year. Considering how many carries Mostert, Wilson, and Morris got last year, I think it is a perfect signing. Now the team has three lightning fast, versatile running backs to rotate and keep healthy. None of these guys are 25 carries a game guys, so rotations will keep them healthy. The key will be for the coaches to figure out how to rotate them without killing momentum. I think we will see games this season when each of them takes over and the team rides that guy. As for the 4th RB spot, Mostert and Wilson figure to battle it out. Mostert probably wins because of his speed and special teams ability, but Wilson should promise on short yardage, so we'll see what Shanahan values. This should be an excellent group and it will take the pressure off the weaker wide receiver group.

Wide Receivers (5-6 players)

• Locks (3): Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor
• In the Hunt (3): Kendrick Bourne, Richie James, Steven Dunbar
• Need: High priority. The team needs at least one guy from the draft and hopefully an early round guy.
• Outlook: Pettis really started to come into his own last year. Goodwin struggled with minor injuries and personal matters, but he remains a dangerous weapon. Taylor is a first down machine who should be much healthier this year. After them, it gets murky. Bourne has the best shot to make the team of the remaining players. He has excellent athletic ability, good hands, and works exceptionally hard. His needle is pointing up. James has some potential, but may get bumped in favor of a high draft pick because there are guys on the team that can do just about everything James can do, but better. If the team keeps 6 WR, that is his best shot. Dunbar has intriguing size, but he is an unknown. The thing this team truly lacks is a tough catch making possession receiver. In his prime, Garcon was that guy, but injuries have taken their toll on him. So the team needs to find a guy who can fill that role.

Tight Ends (2-3 players)

• Locks (2): George Kittle, Garrett Celek
• In the Hunt (2): Ross Dwelley, Marcus Lucas
• Need: Low priority/None
• Outlook: Kittle broke out in the biggest way and cemented himself as a top 3 TE in this league. Celek is a solid veteran who does everything well enough to be counted on. There is really no reason to move on from him unless a much more talented player fell into our lap. There aren't many of those in the draft. If the team chooses to keep a third TE, Dwelley made a few plays last year and has the physical attributes that could be developed. More competition could be added in the late rounds or UDFA, but this shouldn't be a big concern.

Offensive Line (8-9 players)

• Locks (5): Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey, Laken Tomlinson, Mike Person, Weston Richburg
• In the Hunt (5): Shon Coleman, Erik Magnuson, Josh Garnett, Najee Toran, Christian DiLauro
• Need: Medium Priority. Guard and swing tackle are needs.
• Outlook: After resigning Person, the entire starting 5 from last year are back. But is that a good thing? This unit had some big lapses last year, but the offense did perform well with third and fourth stringers at almost all of the skill positions, so they must have done their jobs well at some point. Particularly, Staley and McGlinchey were excellent on the ends. Tomlinson continues to make strides and Person was a steady contributor. Richburg caught the most flack from the fans, and perhaps rightfully so. He seemed to allow far too much pressure up the middle and had some trouble with the OLine calls at times. Still, he did have moments of brilliance and will hopefully progress with a season in the system under his belt. If the same 5 start this season it certainly won't be a disaster, but it won't be a huge strength for us. As far as depth, the team has a bunch of unknowns or don't-want-to-knows. Coleman came here in trade with the Browns and has yet to do much. He needs to grab the swing tackle job this off season or the team will need to draft one. Magnuson is a decent back-up with versatility, but his ceiling seems to be pretty low. Garnett finally got a chance to play a bit last year and didn't do too badly, but this year he either wins a starting job or gets cut. There is no reason to keep hanging on to him if he can't play. The team could use an early round guy who can play OG and C to push Person and Tomlinson.

Parting Thoughts:

• I have identified 35 players as Locks. You probably disagree with some of my choices, but that leaves 18 roster spots that are up for grabs.
• I rank the priorities like this: 1. Edge Rusher 2. Wide Receiver 3. Safety 4. OL 5. CB 6. Punter
• The drop off from starter to back-up is greater than we have had in a long time. It says that the team is much more talented, but that the depth is not there yet.
• Bosa, Bosa, Bosa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Awesome job man, really solid post. Only thing I disagree with is TE. I'm not sure what to think of celek anymore bc of his availability and performance last season. I think we need another TE threat in the passing game.

Really great post Karma! Personally, I just want us to add a ton of qb pressure from both edges. Whether that means adding another DE in the draft or not, I'm not sure. I've been really hoping we get Bosa but if by acquiring Ford means we're set on both ends then I'm all for filling other needs in the draft. I'd still be a little butt hurt if we had the chance to draft Bosa and decided to pass on him.

Originally posted by OsBoogie:
on offense

RB: I don't think McKinnon is a lock. I think Mostert is more of a sure thing to be on the roster.

WR: I think we'll add someone in day 2 to compete for Bourne's spot at the Z but I don't think his roster spot is in jeopardy. James should be safe as well. Goodwin is not a lock in my mind however.

TE: I think we very well could look at an upgrade behind Kittle. He's the only lock there.

OL: I think Magnuson and Garnett are locks this season. Coleman is pretty close to a lock as well.

Disagree on McKinnon, they save zero if they cut him or trade him, and his salary becomes GTD on April 1st. He's a lock IMO

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Disagree on McKinnon, they save zero if they cut him or trade him, and his salary becomes GTD on April 1st. He's a lock IMO

he may be saved because he can't pass a physical. I just can't see us going with 4 RB's on our 53 not including our FB.
I really think he starts on PUP

but they do save 3.75m on the cap on a post June 1st cut/trade.

Originally posted by OsBoogie:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Disagree on McKinnon, they save zero if they cut him or trade him, and his salary becomes GTD on April 1st. He's a lock IMO

he may be saved because he can't pass a physical. I just can't see us going with 4 RB's on our 53 not including our FB.
I really think he starts on PUP

but they do save 3.75m on the cap on a post June 1st cut/trade.

4 RBs is pretty common, especially when one is a special teamer. Think about all the RBs we went through last year. Only carrying 3 on a team that figures to run the ball a ton in the ZBS would be asking for trouble. Coleman and McKinnon also have a TON of experience lining up out wide.

Originally posted by Karma:
4 RBs is pretty common, especially when one is a special trainer. Think about all the RBs we went through last year. Only carrying 3 on a team that figures to run the ball a ton in the ZBS would be asking for trouble. Coleman and McKinnon also have a TON of experience lining up out wide.

this is one that I'm not necessarily sure of, but I don't think he's a lock. one would have to be inactive regularly if they were healthy. Seems like a waste for Coleman or McKinnon... Breida I think has to be active as he's the best between the tackles. Mostert is a must