Originally posted by NCommand:
Alright, this is my first draft of the kinds of moves I think ShanaLynch will make based on recent history. Please critique.
The OP was updated with pools of free agents for free agency (that I think this FO will draw from). This is the end result (for now / first draft).
The '49er Way' Free Agency/Draft Retooling Plan:
Notes:
- Last year, the FO paid out $87.8M which included 6 in-house moves and signing 7 outside free agents. This total included $37M to Jimmy Garoppolo. The FO typically likes to roll over roughly $35M every year. Garoppolo's year-1 contract is obviously an outlier and is only counting $20M this year. Looking at the FO's history here, $50-$60M seems to be their striking distance in free agency with $25-$35M to roll over annually.
- Jason_OTC covered additional trends and tendencies and that aligns with a perpetual "mid-tier approach to free agency." They will spend money but not always on the best players (bad contracts; contacts on oft-injured risky players; sign too early before proven or older higher paid players for low production) and they certainly won't go all-in for premier players at premium positions. They'll overpay to secure players from cheaper positions (i.e. FB, RB, C or LB vs. ER, WR, T or CB).
- Another tactic they'll use is paying outrageous $ for 5th year options (Ward & AA) and extend players (Staley) so the grand total of free agency spending looks much bigger than it really is for quality on-field production. They love to sign their own early as well (i.e. Buckner next year).
- The biggest trend over the Paraag regime is the $10M cutoff. No free agent, outside QB, will make more than their own in-house top paid player and that has always been Joe Staley at around $10M.
- ShanaLynch were asked what their biggest regret was this year and they both admitted to 1) relying too much Jimmy Garoppolo to mask so many weaknesses and 2) not adding enough competition (e.g. presumed starters didn't feel much pressure to lose their jobs and got complacent)
- I have a pretty realistic spend of $69.5M plan this year but let's stay in their ballpark of $50-$60M using these FO tendencies and see what we can come up with.
2019 Draft:
1/2 SAM/ER Josh Allen - 6'5" 240; there were very serious discussions on IDL Quinnen Williams and no great trade partners
2/36 RG Garrett Bradbury - 6'3" 300; Unwilling to pay for Mike Person, a large hole opens up here
3/67 CB Amani Oruwariye - 6'1" 204; This is where we take CB's
4/97 TE Albert Okwuegbunam - 6'5" 260; TE2 and another OW
6/162 LT Colton Jackson - 6'5" 298; Outside zone T who even wears #74 and will develop for a year
6/192 P Jake Bailey - 6'2" 203; We opt not to pay Bradley Pinion
Free Agency:
RCB Jason McCourty 31 NE 83.1 #6 CB $12M APY - The FO is tired of being dead last as a coverage unit by a country mile and makes a move, who like Sherman, can help develop the youngsters while giving way to them in a couple years.
LEO Ezekiel Ansah 30 DET 74.5 #N/A ED $11M APY - Was there any doubt with Mayhew/Kucerek on board? We went after him last year as well.
WILL/MIKE Cory Littleton 25 LAR 66.6 #37 LB $7M APY - It's time to lock down a young proven WILL next to Warner for the next 4 years and it's always nice to steal from a rival.
BE Arik Armstead 25 SF 74.8 #28 ED $6M APY - AA is resigned to a 4-year $24M deal; down from $9.5M for 2019 alone on a 5th-year option.
FS Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix 26 WAS 79.3 #17 S $6M APY - Naturally, we couldn't land the top FS on the market but Ha-Ha should get the last laugh and will pair with an expensive Tartt at SS. The good news is we'll be playing with more with 2 safeties back deep with the hiring of Woods and that should strength the unit as it plays more to both strengths.
XWR John Brown 29 BAL 66.1 #70 WR $4M APY - Anyone else want to count on Goodwin? Kyle agrees. Speed is critical to this offense. If both are healthy, look out.
RG Andy Levitre 33 ATL 61.2 #N/A G $3M APY - The FO didn't want to give Person an extra $1M to be a starter so we go with the old veteran and a high draft pick plus stay with Garnett for additional insurance.
ZWR Kevin White 27 CHI 62.0 #N/A WR $2M APY - If anyone can get the most out of him, it's Kyle/JG.
Special Teams - PK Robbie Gould ($3.5M APY); RB Raheem Mostert ($1.8M RFA); WILL Elijah Lee ($645K ERFA) & SAM Mark Nzeocha ($800K APY) - Reward our own.
2018 Cap Spend - $87.8M
2019 Cap Spend - $57.7M
2019 Rookie Pool (7 picks) - $8.5M
2019 Remaining Cap - $47.8M
Cap Rank Post-FA Spendings - 2nd Most (2018 reference)
[Free Agents/Draft/Restructured Player Acquisitions]
Offensive Personnel: --- 24
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo; Nick Mullens
RB: Jerick McKinnon; Matt Breida & Raheem Mostert
FB: Kyle Juszczyk
TE: George Kittle; [Albert Okwuegbunam]
XWR: Dante Pettis; Marquise Goodwin
SWR: Richie James; [John Brown]
ZWR: [Kevin White]; Kendrick Bourne
LT: Joe Staley; [Colton Jackson]
LG: Laken Tomlinson; Joshua Garnett
C: Weston Richburg; Erik Magnuson
RG: [Garrett Bradbury]; [Andy Levitre]
RT: Mike McGlinchey; Shon Coleman
Defensive Personnel: --- 26
BE: [Arik Armstead]; Jullian Taylor & Kentavius Street
1T/3T: D.J. Jones; Sheldon Day
3T/1T: DeForest Buckner; Solomon Thomas
LEO/ER: [Ezekiel Ansah]; Ronald Blair
SAM/ER: [Josh Allen]; [Mark Nzeocha]
MIKE: Fred Warner; Brock Coyle
WILL: [Cory Littleton]; [Elijah Lee]
RCB: [Jason McCourty]; [Amani Oruwariye]
SCB: K'Wuan Williams; D.J. Reed
LCB: Richard Sherman; Ahkello Witherspoon
FS: [Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix]; Adrian Colbert & Tarvarius Moore
SS: Jaquiski Tartt; Marcell Harris
Special Teams: --- 3
LS: Kyle Nelson
PK: [Robbie Gould]
P: [Jake Bailey]
KOR: D.J. Reed & Richie James
PR: Dante Pettis; D.J. Reed
GR: [Raheem Mostert] & Tarvarious Moore
Not bad NC as always.
I really want Earl Thomas at FS, and would love to add Antonio Brown. Not keen on Kevin White, I'd rather go for Brown, if not, then either Golden Tate or Tyrell Williams. Love the draft,
