Roster Analysis Part 4: Grading Draft Pick Contributions

Many ripped into the coaches and FO early this season after many close, emotional losses, with statements voicing a total loss of faith in Lynch and/or shredding the barely over 1-year old Shanahan-Lynch regime for "terrible talent evaluation". As some tried to point out, this was wildly premature chatter. Not only were those statements not entirely accurate then, as time has gone on and players have gotten opportunities or recovered from injury, those prior negative statements appear to be even more false than they were initially. Let's just take a quick look at the 2017 and 2018 Classes.

First, here are the main factors I'm looking at for grading contributions:
-Draft Slot
-Performance in whatever proportion of playing time the player has received. I'm not going to knock a player like Marcell Harris for not playing early on while recovering from injury. I would only knock the player if they were repeatedly injured and missing time.


2017 Draft Class:

Solomon Thomas, DE
Learning new position as rookie in 2017. In 2018, deals with serious personal matter early in the season and is continued to be used outside. Thomas gets counseling, season goes on, they move Thomas primarily inside, and each week has shown noticeable improvement. The stats will come especially if he continues to perform like he did against Seattle. Contribution Grade: C

Rueben Foster, LB
Grade A potential, with Grade F decision-making. And injury prone. Seemed like he was worth the risk at the time. Didn't pan out, but thankfully we landed a potential star to replace him. Contribution Grade: F

Ahkello Witherspoon, CB
Performed solidly in rookie season, but struggled some to start 2018. Rebounded and was playing well before the knee injury ended his season. Healthy competition should certainly push him in 2019 and that should bode well for us whether Spoon earns the job or not. Contribution Grade: C+

CJ Beathard, QB
Definitely improved in his 2nd year, but still terrible at feeling and dealing with pressure. Not all our losses were on him, but some were. Has performed more like a 5th rounder so far than a 3rd, but it wouldn't totally surprise me if he played well somewhere else one day. Contribution grade: C-

Joe Williams, RB
Not on the team anymore. Contribution Grade: F

George Kittle, TE
A beast and already a top-3 tight end in the NFL by his second year. Contribution Grade: A+

Trent Taylor, WR
Struggled early with the back injury, but lately seems to be closer to his former self, making some nice plays in key situations/3rd downs. Also has done a nice job on punt returns when called upon. For a late 5th rounder, not bad at all. Contribution Grade: B-

Pita Taumoepenu, LB/DE
Had a HUGE, crushing hit on special teams last week in OT that gave Seattle poor field position to start the OT period. He hasn't seen much action, but we'll see if he starts to earn more playing time going forward. For a sixth rounder, STs is about what to expect, although I'd hope to see him get some more defensive snaps. Contribution Grade: C

DJ Jones, NT
Every time he's on the field he makes a noticeable difference. Hard for the team to sit down Mitchell (politics) when he hasn't played glaringly awful and is a veteran leader, but Jones seems by all means to be the better player and definitely has huge upside going forward. Hasn't had as much action as he deserves, because he's been good when he's out there. Contribution Grade: B+

Adrian Colbert, S
Great start in 2017, mediocre 2018 with a slew of mental mistakes and missed tackles. Ward and Exum have had their share of mistakes, but as average as they were, I think both played better than Colbert this year. Hopefully he'll rebound in 2019 or we find a legit replacement. For a 7th rounder though, to be a starter, even if he's just a special teamer and primary backup in the future, this pick is better than it seems. The hype stemming from 2017 just got us a little too excited. Contribution Grade: B-



2018 Draft Class:

Mike McGlinchey, OL
Has been anything but a liability on the OL. Major help in the run game and solid in the pass game. Some say he deserves rookie of the year attention. Plays like he deserves to the spot he was selected at. Contribution Grade: A

Dante Pettis, WR
Like many, I was worried when he went down with injury early in the season. Since he came back and got into a groove, he's been impressive. Burning DBs with ease, showing off a surprisingly nasty stiff arm in the open field, and showcasing breakaway speed when he gets the ball in his hands. Despite missing 4 games, he is 8th among rookie WRs in yards, 2nd in yards/catch, and 3rd in touchdowns with 5 behind only Calvin Ridley (8) and Anthony Miller (6). Contribution Grade: A-

Fred Warner, LB
Ranks fourth among rookie linebackers in tackles and showcases great coverage skills. Not much in terms of a pass rush yet, but still doing a good job for a 3rd rounder who earned a day one starting job. Contribution Grade: A

Tavarius Moore, CB
He had to learn a new position and also bide his time serving on special teams (doing a fine job there in the mean time) while waiting behind the more experienced Witherspoon. In limited action, Moore has played well. Arrow is up. Contribution Grade: B-

Kentavius Street, DE
Red-shirting this season. No contribution grade.

DJ Reed, CB
Struggled at FS because he simply isn't a fit there at all. CB, whether inside or out, is his natural position and when playing there he has been a force. Since it's not his fault he was played out a position, I give him a slight pass for struggling while at FS. Also have to consider he was a 5th rounder. Contribution grade: B-

Marcel Harris, S
This pick was a gamble due to the injury but it may turn out well. Harris is a ferocious, fly-to-the-ball player who showed that all he needed was one game to knock off the rust despite a LOOOONG time not playing. That tells you something. In limited action he's been a playmaker making critical stops in each of the past couple of games. For a sixth rounder to come in and earn the start when he was eligible, that's impressive. Also does well on STs. Contribution Grade: A-

Julian Taylor, DL
Shined in the pre-season, and has gotten a little more playing time lately. Still scratching the surface, but for a 7th rounder, not too shabby. Looking forward to seeing him improve. Contribution Grade: C

Richie James, WR
Valuable asset in the return game and has shown flashes at WR. Still room to improve in the latter area, but the arrows seems to be up. Not bad at all for a 7th rounder. Contribution grade: B


Undrafted players: Matt Breida, Nick Mullens, Jeff Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, Erik Magnuson
Collectively, this group has been phenomenal for being UDFAs. Teams don't typically find this many starter-capable guys undrafted. Contribution Grade: A


Summary: Overall, how we fare going forward is going to depend on development of these guys and if players who are getting better late this year continue that trend into 2019 (Thomas and Witherspoon in particular as high picks). At the moment though, I'd say we've gotten major contributions from over 60% of our picks, and "solid contribution" across the board from almost all of our picks. Not to mention unbelievable success with UDFAs. It's just a two-year sample size, but I think we are the cusp, with another draft as impactful as 2018's, to do serious damage in 2019. Overall Contribution grade of draft picks: B

Great Post! If Jimmy is who we hope he is that 2018 "2nd rounf pick" becomes the most important "pick" in our recent history.

When you break down both drafts completely it shows it's not all doom and gloom like some think.

Originally posted by illinois9er:

When you break down both drafts completely it shows it's not all doom and gloom like some think.

Really, if either Thomas or Witherspoon step it up next year (or both, but ideally I want the top 3 pick to do so), we'll be in business. Buckner broke out in his third season so I hope Thomas can do the same with 2 new bookends crashing the corners wreaking havoc.

The fact you gave Solomon, wisherspoon and cj a C shows me I can't take your evaluations seriously.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by illinois9er:
When you break down both drafts completely it shows it's not all doom and gloom like some think.

Really, if either Thomas or Witherspoon step it up next year (or both, but ideally I want the top 3 pick to do so), we'll be in business. Buckner broke out in his third season so I hope Thomas can do the same with 2 new bookends crashing the corners wreaking havoc.

Buckner had an improved 3rd year...but everybody could see that coming. I'm not sure Thomas has put anything on tape that illustrates he is in for a similar level of improvement. In Thomas' case, incremental improvement won't be enough. He needs to take major strides.

Excellent post!

Originally posted by susweel:
The fact you gave Solomon, wisherspoon and cj a C shows me I can't take your evaluations seriously.

C means average.

If the grading scale goes from: A= All-Pro level contributions to F= Can't hack it in the league

Thomas, as a rotational member of the D Line who plays at a nominal level, is easily an average pick. Same with the other two.

I think you are being awfully generous on a few of these, but overall solid post.

Originally posted by Karma:

Originally posted by susweel:
The fact you gave Solomon, wisherspoon and cj a C shows me I can't take your evaluations seriously.

C means average.

If the grading scale goes from: A= All-Pro level contributions to F= Can't hack it in the league

Thomas, as a rotational member of the D Line who plays at a nominal level, is easily an average pick. Same with the other two.

This is not what the OP used as his logic. He also used draft slot.

You think Thomas has performed average for his draft slot? Also, Harris got an A-. So, using your logic... is he contributing at an All-Pro level? I highly doubt anybody in the NFL would say that.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
I think you are being awfully generous on a few of these, but overall solid post.

It's an optimistic view, for sure. Thomas, Witherspoon Taylor, Pita, Colbert are probably a full grade too high. Colbert was especially atrocious this year.

The 2018 grades are a little closer to reality. But we also have a comparatively limited sample size.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

I think you are being awfully generous on a few of these, but overall solid post.

It may seem generous on some due to smaller sample sizes, I'm sure. I know not everyone will agree but this is the way I see things just at the moment where we are right now.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by Karma:

Originally posted by susweel:

The fact you gave Solomon, wisherspoon and cj a C shows me I can't take your evaluations seriously.

C means average.

If the grading scale goes from: A= All-Pro level contributions to F= Can't hack it in the league

Thomas, as a rotational member of the D Line who plays at a nominal level, is easily an average pick. Same with the other two.

This is not what the OP used as his logic. He also used draft slot.

You think Thomas has performed average for his draft slot? Also, Harris got an A-. So, using your logic... is he contributing at an All-Pro level? I highly doubt anybody in the NFL would say that.

A better way of looking at the scale, when considering the grades -- which are based on both sample and draft slot -- is this:

A - good or better
B - showing promise
C - needs improvement
D - extreme disappointment to the level of not warranting a roster spot going forward (no one has either the sample size or/and the performance level YET to get this grade from me)
F - total failure in every way. Off the team.

Example on Marcell Harris, his is promising but the playmaking prowess and assignment soundness despite being a sixth rounder has been impressive.

Thomas still needs to get better but he's not been worthless out there. Right now he's doing a lot of the dirty work but not making splash plays.

I guess the methodology can be confusing because it involves so much subjectivity. If you were asking straight up how I would grade players regardless of draft position, it'd probably be something like:

THOMAS - C
FOSTER - F
SPOON - C
BEATHARD - C but very close to D
JOE WILLIAMS - F
KITTLE - A
TRENT - C
PITA - D
JONES - B
COLBERT - C
MCGLINCHEY - A
PETTIS - B
WARNER - A
MOORE - B
STREET - N/A
REED - B
HARRIS - B
JULIAN - C
JAMES - C

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
A better way of looking at the scale, when considering the grades -- which are based on both sample and draft slot -- is this:

A - good or better
B - showing promise
C - needs improvement
D - extreme disappointment to the level of not warranting a roster spot going forward (no one has either the sample size or/and the performance level YET to get this grade from me)
F - total failure in every way. Off the team.

Example on Marcell Harris, his is promising but the playmaking prowess and assignment soundness despite being a sixth rounder has been impressive.

Thomas still needs to get better but he's not been worthless out there. Right now he's doing a lot of the dirty work but not making splash plays.

I guess the methodology can be confusing because it involves so much subjectivity. If you were asking straight up how I would grade players regardless of draft position, it'd probably be something like:

THOMAS - C
FOSTER - F
SPOON - C
BEATHARD - C but very close to D
JOE WILLIAMS - F
KITTLE - A
TRENT - C
PITA - D
JONES - B
COLBERT - C
MCGLINCHEY - A
PETTIS - B
WARNER - A
MOORE - B
STREET - N/A
REED - B
HARRIS - B
JULIAN - C
JAMES - C

Originally posted by susweel:
The fact you gave Solomon, wisherspoon and cj a C shows me I can't take your evaluations seriously.

Yeah I don't get the CJ and Solomon one. I do understand witherspoon, he has had more good games then bad games as a forty niner. He had a bad half a season. He played well last year, and was playing well for the last 5-6 games this year. He isn't a great tackler, but he is a good cover corner when he is playing well. Coverage > tackling at the corner position. He had a couple BS PI's, and a couple times where people literally blew coverages behind him.