Originally posted by pwillis52beasty:
Originally posted by DaBum:
Originally posted by FrankPollack1994:
Initial reactions on a pick are usually more accurate. If you're going, "who" in an earlier round, it's probably a dud. Never let a pick grow on you.
Out of about 300 picks, about 270 of them will be nothing of note. Try looking at past drafts and see all the junk in them, and try to remember all the hype.
The reality is, you're lucky if ONE of your picks out of 7-11 of them becomes a very good starter.
Just think about this 2000 49ers draft class. Here's my memory of how our fan base thought of them:
Julian Peterson: Great athlete who reminds me of Charles Haley. (Very good but overrated player who wanted ridiculous money. Finesse guy whose production as a pass rusher would come on true blitzes instead of from a 3 point stance, despite playing DE in college. 6 seasons in SF, injured in most of one and mediocre in the last)
Ahmed Plummer: Smart and a great kid. Will be a very good corner for years to come! (Basically a bust. Showed some flashes of good play in 2001 and then was so bad he got benched against the Giants in the playoffs in 02-03 after making Amani Toomer look all-world, Antonio Langham vs. Keyshawn 1998 style. Then the injuries finished off a guy who was never a good starter to begin with).
John Engelberger: I've heard comparisons to Pierce Holt! If so, he's going to be a really solid player. (Holt comparisons laughable. He was an edge guy, not an interior lineman. Weak against the run, could only sack the QB on a fluke play where he just ran straight around the tackle, which he would do maybe 4 times per year. Not a starting-caliber player in the NFL. 5 lousy seasons and done in SF.).
Jason Webster: Another smart corner and a great kid! (Couldn't play the ball. He was actually a better man cover guy than Plummer, but he could be right there and the ball was completed anyway. A few years of mediocre play and done).
Giovanni Carmazzi: Our QBOTF! Smart and Italian like Mariucci! Mobile, good arm, accurate. (Deer in the headlights in preseason. Awful. Not an NFL caliber QB. Didn't make the roster his second year).
Jeff Ulbrich: Super-productive and great football intelligence! (Mediocre starter who lacked athleticism. Injuries finished him off).
John Keith: Big hitter! Might be our new starting SS! (He could hit, sure, but too athletically limited to start long-term. Injuries ended him almost before it even began).
Paul Smith: Might be a sleeper. Can play FB and RB. Special teams ace! (3 years of special teams fodder)
John Milem: 15 sacks! Maybe we found a small school steal! (Total dud who basically never played)
Tim Rattay: If Carmazzi doesn't work out for some reason, he's the QBOTF. College record setter! Walsh traded up in the 7th to get him, so he saw something he liked! (I liked him and wish they would have treated him like he was a first round pick and tried to coach him up, but they never do with late round guys. Needed major work on his pocket presence and decision making, and was injury prone. Few years of backup and brief moments of trying to be a starter, but injuries and inconsistency ended it abruptly).
Brian Jennings: I hear he's a really good long-snapper! (OK, he was a really good long snapper, for whatever that was worth).
And here's the 2001 draft. Remember, it was Bill Walsh doing these:
Andre Carter: Awesome pick. We've got our pass rusher, folks! Son of Rubin Carter. The most technically advanced college DE they've ever seen. He'll be a Pro Bowler. (Disappointment. Lacked the elite speed off the edge or the power to bull rush. Injuries, up and down production to where he had a few good sack total seasons, but was never really a force as a pass rusher in general, and out of SF after 5 seasons).
Jamie Winborn: The next Derrick Brooks! GREAT SPEED and playmaking ability! Future star. (Nolan threw him under the bus like the POS he is, but he was another walking injury. More quick than fast, lousy in coverage, and though a big hitter and really aggressive, not a consistent enough tackler. Out of SF after a little over 4 seasons).
Kevan Barlow: Mike Shanahan said he was the best RB in the draft! (He showed talent in his first 3 seasons in SF, but once given the full-time job in his 4th season, utterly flopped...turned into one of the worst RBs you'll see and was outperformed by UDFA Maurice Hicks, and of course, Frank Gore. Out of SF after 5 seasons, only 3 of them good, when he was splitting carries with Garrison Hearst)
Cedrick Wilson: He has speed! They got a 4.4 range 40-time on him! (Just a run-of-the-mill depth receiver who lacked speed. Good blocker is about the best you can say of him).
Rashad Holman: Don't remember. (Did nothing. 3 years of nickel and done).
Menson Holloway: Don't remember. (Didn't make team).
Alex Lincoln: Don't remember. (Didn't make team).
Eric Johnson: Walsh said he's the next Brent Jones! (Mediocre dumpoff/outlet tight end and a mediocre blocker. Jones was an overrated player himself, but in his peak athletic years, he could get deep in the seems and make some plays down field or after the catch. Johnson was a stiff who did neither).
Moral of the story: Temper the enthusiasm if you want to be remotely realistic.
You my friend are blowing a lot of hot air.
Peterson was a 5 time Pro Bowler and 1 time All-Pro. That's a good pick.
Plummer got destroyed by injuries. It happens and is hardly something you criticize a GM for. He had a 7 INT year in his second year and was selected to the all-rookie team the year before.
Engleberger was a four starter for us. Pretty good result for a 2nd rd pick.
Webster was a 3 year starter as a 2nd rd pick and started 3 more years in Atl after we let him leave.
Ulbrich started a majority of games in 5 seasons and played 9 years in SF. Were you expecting more from a 3rd rd pick?
Rattay was a good backup and got multiple starts in 4 different seasons as a 7th rd pick. That's a great result.
Jennings was our long snapper (actually very important) for 13 freaking years and made a Pro bowl as a 7th rd pick. That's extremely rare FYI.
Carter had 80 sacks in his career. That's a result most would take if given the option at draft time. Not our fault out coaches sucked and he made more than half of them elsewhere.
Winborn couldn't stay healthy but still had a 10 year career.
Barlow was over hyped because he did well as a backup early on. He still amassed nearly 5000 yards as a 49er in 5 seasons. Not bad for a 3rd rd RB who played on terrible teams.
Wilson was a 6th rd pick at WR. Most of those guys end up cut or never seeing the field. Yet, he played 5 seasons here while starting in 19 games.
Eric Johnson started 47 games in 4 years and had a 80 catch season as a 7th rd TE. You're saying that was a bad pick? Lol.
...
You are cherry picking the most rosy things thought of these draft picks when a large majority didn't go that far on the hype train. Most of these picks produced better than average for where they were picked. I have no idea why you went after these drafts. Plenty of other, more recent draft that bombed.
This X 1000. A lot of hot air being blown indeed. What does he expect, all these draft picks to turn into hall of famers? Lol.
Just a really awkward post considering that was actually a solid draft that netted a lot of starters. People like to be optimistic and hope for the best in the potential that they see from draft picks. That doesn't mean they actually expect all these guys to be stars. But if you can net that many starters or contributing players like in the 2000 or 2001 draft then you did fine. Was not a good example to prove his point lol. Should have picked the 2012 draft or lots of other drafts he could have picked.
"Really awkward?" So by "really awkward," you mean you don't understand it because you are a moron?
What do I expect? I expect 1st and 2nd round picks to be, AT WORST, solid starters. And I expect guys you trade up for into the high first round to be stars, or at least, VERY GOOD.
Sorry, but freak'n John Engelberger, Jason Webster, and Jamie Winborn were terrible 2nd round picks.
You want to know a good 2nd round pick? Here, let's look at some from the 2001 draft class:
Drew Brees...yeah, this is a close one.
Kyle Vanden Bosch...hey, he was only very good here and there, but that's a little better than backups you don't really want on the field.
Alge Crumpler. Very good tight end for several seasons, and held back by one of the worst passing QBs in football.
Chad Johnson. Star.
Kris Jenkins. Stud.
Aaron Schobel. Very good starter for several seasons.
Matt Light. Solid starter for years and years.
Shaun Rogers. Elite for a few years.
THOSE are good 2nd round picks. You're not expecting too many Brees's, but you're certainly hoping to find one of the other guys on that list.
But the reality is, most of the time, you don't. And when you see a guy picked and go, "eh, who?", you can usually forget it.