Injuries - 9-Year Analysis | Page 278

NCommand · 2017-08-10T07:50:28-07:00

Updated annually in March/April once released. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- --- 2023 for 2022 Data Update --- For over 15 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 82.3 on their scale), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically. --- For an updated chart, PM NCommand --- But by how much? The teams under this threshold average just 6.77 wins and the teams over it, average 9.37 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs even with a 17-game schedule. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL (health) and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoffs. What does that mean for us? The San Francisco 49ers over the past 9 years have ranked as the 31st most injured team, only behind Washington, as the most injured team in the NFL. And we've closed the gap and only trail Washington by .2 points on the aggregate average rank over that entire span. Kyle Shanahan spoke of the importance of staying healthy: "I feel confident with our guys," Shanahan said. "We got some guys who compete. Collectively, we have a smart group of people who can all play together. And I think we'll be able to surprise some people. But the biggest thing that always comes into (play) is injuries." In every analysis, there are outliers, naturally...teams that had a high AGL (i.e. lots of quality injuries) one year but still made the playoffs, but in ALL of these cases, they had a veteran or Franchise QB such as Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, etc. to pull them through that. You can now add Jimmy Garoppolo to that list based on 2019. But NONE of them had enough steam to win a Superbowl. What was also interesting is that many teams that were hit hard one year (i.e. Chicago 2017-2018 - Playoffs), rebounded the next year (extreme/outlier stats). Not us...Washington and San Francisco have been consistently hammered every year. Conversely, our rivals in the NFCW in Seattle and Los Angeles, remain two of the healthiest teams, ranked in the top 5 over this same span. So the next time a fan says, "Every team deals with injuries" you can point to the fact that while all teams do deal with injuries, not all teams deal with the same level of quantity and quality of injuries and this fact has a direct correlation to wins and losses and your team's chances of making the playoffs and winning that chip. So here's to a healthy 2023! We're loooooooooooooooooooooooong overdue. Football Outsiders - Adjusted Games Lost PS: This correlation appears to be as strong as the, 'turnovers-to-wins/losses correlation' metric. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest 2008 - 6th 2009 - 23rd 2010 - 4th 2011 - 8th (NFCCG) 2012 - 1st (Superbowl) 2013 - 23rd (NFCCG) 2014 - 26th 2015 - 26th 2016 - 24th 2017 - 23rd 2018 - 29th 2019 - 27th (Superbowl) 2020 - 32nd 2021 - 29th (NFCCG) 2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

Sep 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

#4156

random49er
Veteran
Posts: 14,814

Can we just delete this thread?

Sep 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM

#4157

BobSacamano69
Veteran
Posts: 1,641

I rest my case.

Sep 8, 2025 at 4:51 PM

#4158

Crown
Hall of Fame
Posts: 36,905

Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
I rest my case.

Lots of teams got lots of injuries this opening week.

Sep 8, 2025 at 4:55 PM

#4159

blizzuntz
Veteran
Posts: 55,324

Originally posted by random49er:
Can we just delete this thread?

If we don't test for injuries , there won't be any.

on a serious note we should make this thread disappear

Sep 8, 2025 at 4:56 PM

#4160

SmokeyJoe
Veteran
Posts: 13,353

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
If we don't test for injuries , there won't be any.

on a serious note we should make this thread disappear

Lol

Sep 8, 2025 at 5:04 PM

#4161

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 27,914

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by random49er:
Can we just delete this thread?

If we don't test for injuries , there won't be any.

on a serious note we should make this thread disappear

I would…tho I know other people want it around so I won't.

I loathe injuries. Hate seeing our top guys missing time. Kittle was looking terrific. Sucks for him.

Sep 8, 2025 at 5:06 PM

#4162

PRIMETIME21
Veteran
Posts: 18,690

We win in NO but the cardinals gonna kill us with these injuries

Sep 8, 2025 at 5:41 PM

#4163

ninersrule4
Veteran
Posts: 22,307

More hamstring injuries. Have they had the same strength and condition coach Kyle's entire time here?

Sep 8, 2025 at 5:56 PM

#4164

BobSacamano69
Veteran
Posts: 1,641

Originally posted by ninersrule4:
More hamstring injuries. Have they had the same strength and condition coach Kyle's entire time here?

probably. but fans are still in denial and just repeat the "everyone has injuries" denial mantra endlessly in their head.

whats the definition of insanity

Sep 8, 2025 at 6:14 PM

#4165

frenchmov
Veteran
Posts: 6,793

Originally posted by PRIMETIME21:
We win in NO but the cardinals gonna kill us with these injuries

The cards team that barely scraped by the saints??

Sep 8, 2025 at 10:32 PM

#4166

SolRebe1
Veteran
Posts: 13,546

Is this where I come to complain about the injuries?

Sep 8, 2025 at 10:34 PM

#4167

jays9ers
Veteran
Posts: 4,540

Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
probably. but fans are still in denial and just repeat the "everyone has injuries" denial mantra endlessly in their head.

whats the definition of insanity

🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾. There's a common denominator here.

Sep 8, 2025 at 11:07 PM

#4168