Kyle Shanahan's Statistical Profile - Offensive

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
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What's gonna be interesting is how Trey finds himself in this offense in the next couple of years. If his running translate (I really think it will) and you add the element of the QB to this scheme it could be pretty damn unfair. Seriously, the only time in Kyle's playcalling career he ran more than passed was with RGIII....its not all QB running either. It's what the threat of the QB run does to a defense. That's why I kinda think if Trey is who we hope he is we will actually run more as an offense.

Holy crap, this information is gold.

Whether you want to call Kyle (or himself) a WCO play caller or not, you can clearly see his WCO foundation through and through. So the next time fans want to scream about not having a QB who can throw deep, remember this post. Homie don't play that and certainly can't play that if the pass protection is putting his QB's on I.R. or turning them into Blaine Gabbert 2.0 (ghosts). You also NEED a deep threat receiver...one that isn't constantly on the injury books and can develop chemistry with the QB over time since these are such low % plays.

That's a terrific point about the "threat" of the QB run and how that will positively effect Kyle's ability to play call.

This entire off season seemed to dispel every stereotype of Kyle and his personnel preferences: got a mobile QB vs. classic pocket passer, valued a G high and one of massive size, valued pass protection first as a skill set, got a play making S, valued a RB high, etc.

I can't wait to see how he comes out of the think-tank this off season!

Great work, brother!

Kyle doesn't run Bill Walsh's offense but I'd argue he runs an evolutionary version of his pop's offense which in my mind was most definitely a Flavor of the WCO.

I'm in no position to tell Kyle what his offense is but I think a pass game that's predicated on a short attack and YAC is most definitely in the WCO stratosphere.

If I had to sum up Kyle's scheme it would be the following:

-short high percentage passes built to drive YAC
-OZ and Jet sweep run/passes to attack the edge
-boot action off of this edge attack
-power and gap runs to attack the middle
-flourishes attacking the intermediate middle with passes.
-deep shots are taken more sniper like in approach

The league as a whole throws the ball under 15 air yards 81-82% of the time in the last 5 years. That means they throw it deep 18-19% (meaning throws with air yards over 15). From what I've seen the most deep aggressive teams in the league on a yearly bases throwing deep are in the 24-25% range. Kyle when he had a top 5 caliper QB and the best WR on the planet was a tick above league averages in this (see 2016). As much as people wanna b***h and moan about deep passing, its just as much of a function of pass pro and quality of WR as it it's the QB.

Terrific post 816.
This took some real effort and time, and is one of the reasons the WZ is such a great venue. Really well done.

Lance is gonna make Aiyuk and Deebo household names, I cant wait to see how they utilize these guys as actual WR's rather than end around running backs. Kyle is great at playing to the strengths and limitations of his offense so whenever hes had a good oline he airs it out more.

Originally posted by hondakillerzx:
Lance is gonna make Aiyuk and Deebo household names, I cant wait to see how they utilize these guys as actual WR's rather than end around running backs. Kyle is great at playing to the strengths and limitations of his offense so whenever hes had a good oline he airs it out more.

Even if the OL play strengthens and Trey is more efficient in deeper passes, I don't think the jet sweep run/passes are going anywhere. They are basically just outside runs designed to attack the edge. So it's always been kinda misleading when they are from the gun they get registered as a pass.

In a way this kinda skews the short throws higher than they really are when these plays are featured. What's gonna be interesting is the potential QB run options off of that look. Defense over pursues the jet and that leaves the QB naked. Defense accounts for the QB run on these look and know they are no longer as set to stop the jet sweep. This stuff just seems like money to me.

Originally posted by Niners816:
So I ended up breaking down and subscribing to Football Outsiders. It's got some pretty cool info. As I do I decided to throw together a chart about Kyle's QBs as a playcaller. This is based on a QB with 200 attempts in the season. In the event there were more than one at that attempt level I took the numbers of the highest rated guy. So 2018 and 2020 are Nick and 2017 is Hoyer.

Here are the categories I looked at:

DYAR-This is Defense-adjusted yards above replacement. This shows a QB in comparison to a replacement level QB given play against the same level of defense. Number is represented in a league ranking. Basically where the QB ranked that season.

DVOA-This is defense adjusted value over an average QB. The higher the number the better. Negative means that it's below average QB play.

The last chart is based on distances of throws. FO breaks down the passing distances into four categories: Short, Mid, Deep and Bomb. For my chart, I have combined the Short and Mid. That represents Shorter throws. Therefore, the Deep and Bomb have also been combined and represents the Deeper throws. These numbers are percentages of attempts.

Year DYAR
2008 10th
2009 6th
2010 25th
2011 23rd
2012 11th
2013 29th
2014 24th
2015 19th
2016 1st
2017 27th
2018 24th
2019 11th
2020 25th

Year DVOA
2008 18.0
2009 29.3
2010 -6.9
2011 -7.9
2012 16.6
2013 -13.1
2014 -5.3
2015 -1.9
2016 39.1
2017 -16.7
2018 4.2
2019 10.8
2020 -7.7

Year Short/Deep pass ratio
2008 85% / 15%
2009 83% / 17%
2010 83% / 17%
2011 79% / 21%
2012 83% / 17%
2013 82% / 18%
2014 78% / 22%
2015 86% / 14%
2016 81% / 19%
2017 85% / 15%
2018 85% / 15%
2019 87% / 13%
2020 86% / 14%

One of the first things I noticed when looking at these metrics is that for more than half of his playcalling career he has had below average QB play (negative DVOA number indicate this). On the flipside, the last 3 times he got double-digit DVOA play from his QB the offenses where electric. Each scoring well over 400+ points (470+ for our SB team and 540+ for his Atl SB team). Another thing is that Kyle's passing game profile from an air yard perspective, has a career ave of about 84% of the passing game operating in the Short to Mid range and 16% more towards the Deeper sectors. Interesting to note that the most vertical his passing game got was with Rex Grossman and Cleveland Brian Hoyer.

As for Kyle's offense, it really has developed over the years. In houston, it was basically his Pop's and Kubiak's offense. Of course it added elements of the read-option in Was with RGIII and since he's been with us the ground game in particular has become this really exciting scheme that uses the tried and true ZBS and it's also more gap and power runs than any of the other guys considered a Zone Blocking ground game. The jet sweep run/pass stuff is a nice wrinkle that allows him to attack the edges and kinda try to hide some fault pass pro (especially in the interior and especially on known passing situations.....IMO, this is still the biggest opportunity for advancement in his offense. We just have to get the damn pass pro figured out).

What's gonna be interesting is how Trey finds himself in this offense in the next couple of years. If his running translate (I really think it will) and you add the element of the QB to this scheme it could be pretty damn unfair. Seriously, the only time in Kyle's playcalling career he ran more than passed was with RGIII....its not all QB running either. It's what the threat of the QB run does to a defense. That's why I kinda think if Trey is who we hope he is we will actually run more as an offense.

Great breakdown! Really appreciate posts like these.