Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by McClusky:
It really doesn't matter if we bust a nut in the offseason because of the sheer volume of cap space and lack of talent we have coming up through the pipeline.
For instance let's imagine we busted a nut last year like the Giants did and signed Jenkins, Vernon, and Harrison to the exact same contracts the Giants did.
Do you know how much cap space the 49ers would enter 2017 with after they cut Kaepernick, Brooks, and Bethea? $49 million. Come 2018 only 26℅ of the original guaranteed money is scheduled to be left on those contracts, and all can be cut for fairly substantial cap savings.
There is literally no competitive incentive for the 49ers not to bust a nut in CA assuming they have the opportunity to do so. The accounting situation looks even more favorable this year than last too. Any notion that busting a nut is going to hinder the team in any way is a false flag. The numbers just dont support that story.
I'm not saying don't spend money but let's be proactive and smart about it...there's gonna been a free agency every yr with good talent available. Don't give AJ $13 million a yr just because we need a WR. Like I said NY had some pieces in place before the FAs they brought in, which also is appealing to free agents.
Some of the names I put up there aren't the top players available but would be nice upgrades...we show improvement and we might be more appealing to top FA guys in the future, right now the only way we get big names is by grossly overspending for them.
I think 'being smart about it' is going for the best FA's available at the top market prices. I argued this last season, but everything as it relates to the 49ers needs to be thought of in the form of opportunity costs and comparative advantages. Right now the 49ers have next to no talent, and the guys they might see as their pipeline talent like Buckner, Robinson, and Garnett are so far away from FA (3-4 years) that virtually no contracts they sign are going to have substantial guaranteed money that can influence the future decisions of those guys. Hence the opportunity cost of going big in FA are lower for the 49ers than any team in the NFL.
Sure a 3 year $24 million contract for a guy like Garcon looks a lot more palatable on paper than lets say a 5 year $65 million contract for Jeffrey. However, you have to consider the comparative advantages the 49ers have over other squads. Garcon might fit in great for a team like Minnesota that Garcon represents an upgrade at receiver that gives them more flexibility to resign guys like Barr, Floyd, and Rhodes. Probably at that price the 900 yard contribution Garcon gives them will look more favorable on a per $ than lets say the 1050 yard contribution Jefferey would give us here at about 60% of the price.
However, the 49ers don't incur the same kind of opportunity cost the Vikings do, and the additional cost incurred hits their cap space which is far and away their most abundant asset from which the 49ers don't have good substitute options for. The additional marginal benefit the 49ers get from Jeffrey (able to match up with more #1 corners, dictate more coverage, be open on a larger variety of routes, and be a quality top option in an offense over-weights the cap savings the 49ers would get for a Garcon vs. Jeffery, even if the production doesn't justify the $ difference in a vacuum. Plus the simple gameplanning advantages for a coach, and the advantages for a young QB to have a #1 receiver that is available in almost all games is huge.
I believe the way the 49ers approached FA last season is economically irrational, and to chase value over talent given where they are right now and the resources available is a fools errand. It's akin to a country like Vietnam turning down factory jobs, because they've looked at the data and have seen that tech based economies have a higher standard of living so they're going to hold out for those jobs. They want to be like the Steelers and the Packers without having any of the elements in place that make the way the Steelers and Packers run their organization operationally efficient.
People want to be that team that has great contracts and abundant talent, but it's not a case of just flipping a switch to get there. The team needs to use the cap space it has, to net the best possible talent.
BTW I really like Zeitler too, but I don't think he's going to be cheap. Probably looking at a Brandon Brooks type contract for him.
[ Edited by McClusky on Dec 22, 2016 at 9:35 AM ]
