Jacksonville Jaguar Arik Armstead-DT Thread

Originally posted by ninersrule4:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by ninersrule4:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Wu, I know you have the balls to guesstimate. Anyone else?

The year we were historically bad in run defense:

2,654 yards allowed and 4.8 yards per carry

The last two years with Buckner:

1,800 yards allowed and 4.5 yards per carry

Where do you think we end up this year without Buckner?

I'll play

2,000 yards allowed 4.6 YPC

Finally.

Seems reasonable! Got a time machine?

Otherwise, let's revisit at the end of the season. My guess is similar to you. And if so, losing Buckner won't be as catastrophic as first thought.

While I don't think the drop off in running #s will be as catastrophic. I'm more concerned with our pass rush and what might happen to that.

Well, we had 36 in the year when Buckner had 12. It didn't go up to 48 until we bought Ford, drafted Bosa and AA rose to 10 sacks while Buckner had 7.5.

What do you think it'll be now?

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by ninersrule4:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by ninersrule4:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Wu, I know you have the balls to guesstimate. Anyone else?

The year we were historically bad in run defense:

2,654 yards allowed and 4.8 yards per carry

The last two years with Buckner:

1,800 yards allowed and 4.5 yards per carry

Where do you think we end up this year without Buckner?

I'll play

2,000 yards allowed 4.6 YPC

Finally.

Seems reasonable! Got a time machine?

Otherwise, let's revisit at the end of the season. My guess is similar to you. And if so, losing Buckner won't be as catastrophic as first thought.

While I don't think the drop off in running #s will be as catastrophic. I'm more concerned with our pass rush and what might happen to that.

Well, we had 36 in the year when Buckner had 12. It didn't go up to 48 until we bought Ford, drafted Bosa and AA rose to 10 sacks while Buckner had 7.5.

What do you think it'll be now?

I think we can probably get a better picture looking at how our pass rush did without Ford out there...which was clearly a less effective one.

I don't want to diminish what Buckner did for us because he was a great player but his pass rush contributions were not 21 mil per season type.

There will likely be less of an impact up the middle but I don't see our pass rush suddenly turning into a problem without Buck.

Obviously health is a big factor. IF our DL can stay healthy I think even without Buckner it could top last year's total because healthy Bosa/Ford combo is when our DL really was special.

And it's hard to predict anything when you don't actually know who will be out there but even a DL with Bosa, Jones/Taylor/Thomas, Armstead, Ford on pass rush downs can cause a lot of headaches for QBs.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Well, we had 36 in the year when Buckner had 12. It didn't go up to 48 until we bought Ford, drafted Bosa and AA rose to 10 sacks while Buckner had 7.5.

What do you think it'll be now?

The pass rush may be even better if Ford actually stays healthy. He was only on the field 25% of the time and that's when most of our sacks occurred. Losing Buckner isn't going to diminish Ford/ Bosa. It's a loss of talent no doubt but when you were insane good you can afford it. I'd say it really only comes an issue if we see some injuries. You lose that edge rush now you need Buck's 12 sack potential.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by ninersrule4:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by ninersrule4:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Wu, I know you have the balls to guesstimate. Anyone else?

The year we were historically bad in run defense:

2,654 yards allowed and 4.8 yards per carry

The last two years with Buckner:

1,800 yards allowed and 4.5 yards per carry

Where do you think we end up this year without Buckner?

I'll play

2,000 yards allowed 4.6 YPC

Finally.

Seems reasonable! Got a time machine?

Otherwise, let's revisit at the end of the season. My guess is similar to you. And if so, losing Buckner won't be as catastrophic as first thought.

While I don't think the drop off in running #s will be as catastrophic. I'm more concerned with our pass rush and what might happen to that.

Well, we had 36 in the year when Buckner had 12. It didn't go up to 48 until we bought Ford, drafted Bosa and AA rose to 10 sacks while Buckner had 7.5.

What do you think it'll be now?

I think we can probably get a better picture looking at how our pass rush did without Ford out there...which was clearly a less effective one.

I don't want to diminish what Buckner did for us because he was a great player but his pass rush contributions were not 21 mil per season type.

There will likely be less of an impact up the middle but I don't see our pass rush suddenly turning into a problem without Buck.

Obviously health is a big factor. IF our DL can stay healthy I think even without Buckner it could top last year's total because healthy Bosa/Ford combo is when our DL really was special.

And it's hard to predict anything when you don't actually know who will be out there but even a DL with Bosa, Jones/Taylor/Thomas, Armstead, Ford on pass rush downs can cause a lot of headaches for QBs.

True. We'll revisit when we get a more clear picture of who the starters will be and rotation.

Originally posted by tjd808185:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Well, we had 36 in the year when Buckner had 12. It didn't go up to 48 until we bought Ford, drafted Bosa and AA rose to 10 sacks while Buckner had 7.5.

What do you think it'll be now?

The pass rush may be even better if Ford actually stays healthy. He was only on the field 25% of the time and that's when most of our sacks occurred. Losing Buckner isn't going to diminish Ford/ Bosa. It's a loss of talent no doubt but when you were insane good you can afford it. I'd say it really only comes an issue if we see some injuries. You lose that edge rush now you need Buck's 12 sack potential.

I'm totally in this camp myself. Hence the exercise. That certainly isn't meant to diminish his value or contributions but 3T just happens to be a position you can get production from from multiple players. It was certainly a shrewd move.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Wu, I know you have the balls to guesstimate. Anyone else?

The year we were historically bad in run defense:

2,654 yards allowed and 4.8 yards per carry

The last two years with Buckner:

1,800 yards allowed and 4.5 yards per carry

Where do you think we end up this year without Buckner?

Buckner was a part of the historically bad run defense though. Not to say he played poorly, he had a very good rookie season, but the reality is, he was a part of it.

I don't think the drop off will be that great. Not to say we will just move on like we don't miss him, but I don't think it's a stretch to maintain 2019 production, especially when you consider we played half the year without Dee Ford and had a rash of injuries to our Dline. If we are healthy and can match the overall 2019 production, but go up a tick on offense by adding Ruggs, we will be a better team.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Wu, I know you have the balls to guesstimate. Anyone else?

The year we were historically bad in run defense:

2,654 yards allowed and 4.8 yards per carry

The last two years with Buckner:

1,800 yards allowed and 4.5 yards per carry

Where do you think we end up this year without Buckner?

Buckner was a part of the historically bad run defense though. Not to say he played poorly, he had a very good rookie season, but the reality is, he was a part of it.

I don't think the drop off will be that great. Not to say we will just move on like we don't miss him, but I don't think it's a stretch to maintain 2019 production, especially when you consider we played half the year without Dee Ford and had a rash of injuries to our Dline. If we are healthy and can match the overall 2019 production, but go up a tick on offense by adding Ruggs, we will be a better team.

My thoughts exactly.

Now, if our run defense becomes horrendous I'll be the first to eat crow.

Here we go...now Crocker thinking we've developed AA as a W9 End for 4 years only to be moved inside to 3T because Buckner is gone.

Watch it happen...guys are going to move around.

Originally posted by genus49:
I don't want to diminish what Buckner did for us because he was a great player but his pass rush contributions were not 21 mil per season type.

Which....you have already commented that you determined by 2-3 yr old contracts on an old CBA. This is why players rely on agents to handle the money instead of their fans.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Here we go...now Crocker thinking we've developed AA as a W9 End for 4 years only to be moved inside to 3T because Buckner is gone.

I think the 49ers DLine is set

End - Bosa
DT - Jones
DT - Armstead
End - Thomas

Pass rusher - Dee Ford
Pass rusher - Ronald Blair

— CrockTIME (@eric_crocker) March 24, 2020

Thomas at End + AA at 3T makes us worse at two positions. Let Solly compete at 3T with whoever we draft and leave AA at end in base.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Here we go...now Crocker thinking we've developed AA as a W9 End for 4 years only to be moved inside to 3T because Buckner is gone.

I think the 49ers DLine is set

End - Bosa
DT - Jones
DT - Armstead
End - Thomas

Pass rusher - Dee Ford
Pass rusher - Ronald Blair

— CrockTIME (@eric_crocker) March 24, 2020

Thomas at End + AA at 3T makes us worse at two positions. Let Solly compete at 3T with whoever we draft and leave AA at end in base.

Agreed. If ST can't handle it at 3T, you simply try another of our 30 IDT's and/or bring in a vet after the draft.

Originally posted by random49er:

Watch it happen...guys are going to move around.

Saleh would love that lineup.

And no, guys don't move around in W9 here.

AA slides over a couple feet in nickel to pass rush but that's about it. But given all 10 of his sacks came between the tackles, even when he lines up out at W9, it's literally no change for him at all.

3T is a whole other position and skill set esp. given he'd be on the other side of the line.

And why would you put your second best pass rusher on the same side of Bosa? That just makes life easier and more predictable for the OL.

If they want Armstead to play the 1 gap get in backfield 3t like the Lions played with Suh Armstead would do that just fine. He'd struggle if they want him to take the doubles like Buckner was doing.

We got a major whole in the middle of the defense without Buck. No way around it.