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  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 32,246
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Good post


Originally posted by NCommand:
Great post. That's right...3 prong approach!


Originally posted by dj43:
Oh, I think it is more calculated than that but I agree with what you are saying.

If you aren't choosing at the very top of the draft with known talent available, you look to develop among lesser-known players that may need only a year or two of good positional coaching.

Agree it's a numbers game. Throw it against the wall and see what sticks. NC's basic strategy is to throw a lot against the wall so more sticks!
Wiki Pareto principle

Throw a lot of (talent) against the wall, that is. In a 3-prong fashion.

The game is won in the trenches.
--- quote from the NFLs highest percentage game winner in the NFL Superbowl era (John Madden)

The problem has been our coach only focusing on one side of the trench.

Its pretty obvious that philosophy changed in 2021 to getting larger lineman and lineman that are better pass protectors than run blockers. To say they only focused on one side ignores recent draft history. We have a slew of young guys,from 2nd round picks to UDFAs that are starting positions and key backup roles. Kyle isn't relying on play design and the Ben Garland's or Tom Compton's of the world.

I'd expect 2 more OL draft picks and another UDFA added to the roster.

Now it's clear D-line was the priority here and I don't think they are going away from that, nor should they. Just hoping our young guys develop and we can take another step forward as an O-line, in pass blocking and run blocking.

That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

To a certain extent ShanaLynch has focused on the DLine as they built up the Talent Level on the 49ers. Once they had their QB (Jimmy) they began to draft the offensive line side. However, their inclination to draft or acquire talent over durability on the offensive line side, was almost as good as not drafting for the offensive line. Richburg and McGlinchy were two players who were very talented, but injury prone. I think, to a certain extent, they have done a much better job since 2019 in drafting more for durability and talent, versus having a higher priority on Talent vs durability.

Going forward, I agree with NC that they have to focus on the OLine for a couple of reasons, (1) it's apparently a deep draft for OLinemen - I could be wrong though. (2) both Brock and Trey are very talented QB's and need that protection to operate and continue to develop as QB's to their highest level and potential. (3) as the offense shifts to more of a pass first philosophy because both QB's will develop their passing skills - they will need OLinemen that can better pass protect versus run block. (4) Trent Willaims is not getting any younger and there is rumblings and rumors around the internet that this might be his last year as a 49er and might retire, maybe.
Originally posted by Giedi:
To a certain extent ShanaLynch has focused on the DLine as they built up the Talent Level on the 49ers. Once they had their QB (Jimmy) they began to draft the offensive line side. However, their inclination to draft or acquire talent over durability on the offensive line side, was almost as good as not drafting for the offensive line. Richburg and McGlinchy were two players who were very talented, but injury prone. I think, to a certain extent, they have done a much better job since 2019 in drafting more for durability and talent, versus having a higher priority on Talent vs durability.

Going forward, I agree with NC that they have to focus on the OLine for a couple of reasons, (1) it's apparently a deep draft for OLinemen - I could be wrong though. (2) both Brock and Trey are very talented QB's and need that protection to operate and continue to develop as QB's to their highest level and potential. (3) as the offense shifts to more of a pass first philosophy because both QB's will develop their passing skills - they will need OLinemen that can better pass protect versus run block. (4) Trent Willaims is not getting any younger and there is rumblings and rumors around the internet that this might be his last year as a 49er and might retire, maybe.

Yup cannot have enough good young OT at this point. For the McG spot, and to slide over to the TW spot in future. Draft is the way, very expensive to hit FA here, as we see McG was $87.5m and we all know the TW contract.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?
.
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 31, 2023 at 7:26 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

Fred is pirty good
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

For secondary, this is true. They seem to be gun shy there or it's outside their philosophy.

The good news is they've been connected to 38 S's and CB's with 11 of them projected to go in the top 150. So they clearly have an eye on secondary. Now they just have to choose the right guys.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

I actually don't have a problem with this, because going off of team need at the time, I can only think of one scenario where DB would've been the better pick. Even if I redrafted all of their first two picks in the last six drafts, I don't think I'd come back with a DB in any of the six. This year will be the first year where a DB can legit be first, even though it's pick 99 lol

Hopefully the last few draft classes has some good returns because if so, I'd like us to go DB with two of our first four picks next year.
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

We really are. And even on a talented team, I think third rounds should be netting you starters or key rotational guys. In 6 drafts, we have had nine 3rd round picks. I think it's fair to expect 3 of them to be good. Obviously Fred Warner is a homerun. After that, the next best looks to be Ahkello Witherspoon, who is probably a starter on a bad team, but best served as a rotational guy. Honestly just poor use of draft resources. People talk about our first round picks, but I think in the first round, we are just above league average. (3 good picks out of 7). You could also argue the over drafting is worse in the 3rd round too. Solomon Thomas was overdrafted. Everyone else was taken right about where you'd expect. Trey Lance some may argue also fits, but I don't see him lasting to 12.

CJ Beathard on the other hand- the reason he was drafted in the 3rd is because Kyle was nervous about waiting. Rookie mistake.
Ahkello Witherspoon- solid player who just had a clear ceiling. A depth piece, but no team can survive if their 3rd round picks ceiling is being a rotational player.
Tarvarius Moore-special teams guy and depth piece. See Witherspoon
Jalen Hurd- I see the potential, but I think could've been had later. I think they were just going overkill at receiver because all we had was Pettis and Bourne.
Trey Sermon- all running backs before round 5 are overdrafted by default on this team.
Ambry Thomas- Probably was picked around where you'd expect but has been a disappointment.
TDP- see Trey Sermon
Danny Gray- I'll wait until midseason 2023 to judge.

This is not good. You couldn't trade all 8 of these guys for a good player. I hope we do better going forward because the third round has been our worst round.
  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 32,246
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

We really are. And even on a talented team, I think third rounds should be netting you starters or key rotational guys. In 6 drafts, we have had nine 3rd round picks. I think it's fair to expect 3 of them to be good. Obviously Fred Warner is a homerun. After that, the next best looks to be Ahkello Witherspoon, who is probably a starter on a bad team, but best served as a rotational guy. Honestly just poor use of draft resources. People talk about our first round picks, but I think in the first round, we are just above league average. (3 good picks out of 7). You could also argue the over drafting is worse in the 3rd round too. Solomon Thomas was overdrafted. Everyone else was taken right about where you'd expect. Trey Lance some may argue also fits, but I don't see him lasting to 12.

CJ Beathard on the other hand- the reason he was drafted in the 3rd is because Kyle was nervous about waiting. Rookie mistake.
Ahkello Witherspoon- solid player who just had a clear ceiling. A depth piece, but no team can survive if their 3rd round picks ceiling is being a rotational player.
Tarvarius Moore-special teams guy and depth piece. See Witherspoon
Jalen Hurd- I see the potential, but I think could've been had later. I think they were just going overkill at receiver because all we had was Pettis and Bourne.
Trey Sermon- all running backs before round 5 are overdrafted by default on this team.
Ambry Thomas- Probably was picked around where you'd expect but has been a disappointment.
TDP- see Trey Sermon
Danny Gray- I'll wait until midseason 2023 to judge.

This is not good. You couldn't trade all 8 of these guys for a good player. I hope we do better going forward because the third round has been our worst round.

I think rounds 1 through 4 should get you starter level players. Any starting players after round 4 is a bonus. Solomon Thomas was definitely below expectations, but he did contribute so he wasn't a total bust. Kittle should be a bonus and should balance out the quality of the ShanaLynch drafts. Undrafted Free agents (Poe and Brendel) and free agent diamonds in the rough (Brunskill/Tom Compton) should be also thrown in the mix in an overall talent evaluation offseason to truly get a picture of how good ShanaLynch is in the offseason. I think Undrafteds are important in assessing the draft because they *save* draft capital for other uses. Example Brendel saves ShanaLynch a OLine draft pick that would have been spent to get a center this year. They still might draft a center, but it's more of a depth pick than a must have starter level player.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

For secondary, this is true. They seem to be gun shy there or it's outside their philosophy.

The good news is they've been connected to 38 S's and CB's with 11 of them projected to go in the top 150. So they clearly have an eye on secondary. Now they just have to choose the right guys.

Also good news is while S/DB is considered a "need" for our team, it's not because they will be needed to start, our whole starting secondary is basically locked in. It's the depth/future starters we need. So they won't be asked to immediately come in and play unless they turn out to be better than our current starters which is the ideal setup to be in when it's draft time. In my opinion this draft class isn't elite at the top but in my opinion it's deep. To me there's not much difference between the 75th best prospect and the 150th. There's really a lot of guys I think will be good from say 75 - 175 overall. So a lot of prospects who have talent but need a year or 2 to develop which is perfect for our roster
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

For secondary, this is true. They seem to be gun shy there or it's outside their philosophy.

The good news is they've been connected to 38 S's and CB's with 11 of them projected to go in the top 150. So they clearly have an eye on secondary. Now they just have to choose the right guys.

Also good news is while S/DB is considered a "need" for our team, it's not because they will be needed to start, our whole starting secondary is basically locked in. It's the depth/future starters we need. So they won't be asked to immediately come in and play unless they turn out to be better than our current starters which is the ideal setup to be in when it's draft time. In my opinion this draft class isn't elite at the top but in my opinion it's deep. To me there's not much difference between the 75th best prospect and the 150th. There's really a lot of guys I think will be good from say 75 - 175 overall. So a lot of prospects who have talent but need a year or 2 to develop which is perfect for our roster

That's a great point too. They do typically think a year or two out. On the offensive side, that's extra important given it takes a couple years to master this offense anyhow. That might be why they're looking at WR hard right now too.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 2, 2023 at 3:06 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

For secondary, this is true. They seem to be gun shy there or it's outside their philosophy.

The good news is they've been connected to 38 S's and CB's with 11 of them projected to go in the top 150. So they clearly have an eye on secondary. Now they just have to choose the right guys.

Also good news is while S/DB is considered a "need" for our team, it's not because they will be needed to start, our whole starting secondary is basically locked in. It's the depth/future starters we need. So they won't be asked to immediately come in and play unless they turn out to be better than our current starters which is the ideal setup to be in when it's draft time. In my opinion this draft class isn't elite at the top but in my opinion it's deep. To me there's not much difference between the 75th best prospect and the 150th. There's really a lot of guys I think will be good from say 75 - 175 overall. So a lot of prospects who have talent but need a year or 2 to develop which is perfect for our roster

That's a great point too. They do typically think a year or two out. On the offensive side, that's extra important given it takes a couple years to master this offense anyhow. That might be why they're looking at WR hard right now too.

Yup Jennings will most likely be gone after this year and McCloud is on the last year of his deal as well, not to mention McCloud isn't a for sure lock to make the roster, his return skills can be replaced and his dead cap hit is only like $800k if we cut him, there's a handful of WR's that should be available in rounds 3-5 that have a lot of talent and if we really like one I wouldn't mind taking them. Better to have them come in as the #4-5 WR on the roster and develop for a year rather than having to draft one next year hoping they contribute, or having to sign a FA
Jennings will be back in 2024 unless someone wants to give a 2 and big contract for him.
  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 32,246
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That sounds about right. They shouldn't fear using a higher pick on OL now since they are 2 for 2. Looking at the pre draft connections the FO is doing their due diligence for sure on both T and IOL. And that's great! Keep bringing in the right guys, talent and developing them! They're close.

They have never feared it.

DB on other hand

Haha. Yeah, they haven't returned to a higher pick since Tarvarius Moore and Witherspoon?

Ambry Thomas 🤦🏻‍♂️. 3rd round like the other 2. We are terrible with our 3rd rounders, hopefully this year starts a new trend

For secondary, this is true. They seem to be gun shy there or it's outside their philosophy.

The good news is they've been connected to 38 S's and CB's with 11 of them projected to go in the top 150. So they clearly have an eye on secondary. Now they just have to choose the right guys.

Also good news is while S/DB is considered a "need" for our team, it's not because they will be needed to start, our whole starting secondary is basically locked in. It's the depth/future starters we need. So they won't be asked to immediately come in and play unless they turn out to be better than our current starters which is the ideal setup to be in when it's draft time. In my opinion this draft class isn't elite at the top but in my opinion it's deep. To me there's not much difference between the 75th best prospect and the 150th. There's really a lot of guys I think will be good from say 75 - 175 overall. So a lot of prospects who have talent but need a year or 2 to develop which is perfect for our roster

That's a great point too. They do typically think a year or two out. On the offensive side, that's extra important given it takes a couple years to master this offense anyhow. That might be why they're looking at WR hard right now too.

Yup Jennings will most likely be gone after this year and McCloud is on the last year of his deal as well, not to mention McCloud isn't a for sure lock to make the roster, his return skills can be replaced and his dead cap hit is only like $800k if we cut him, there's a handful of WR's that should be available in rounds 3-5 that have a lot of talent and if we really like one I wouldn't mind taking them. Better to have them come in as the #4-5 WR on the roster and develop for a year rather than having to draft one next year hoping they contribute, or having to sign a FA

I think they might be able to keep Jennings if the cap keeps going up. Having said that, I agree that they do need depth there just in case there are injuries. Aiyuk and Jennings are very good WRs, and it will be a tough challenge to keep all of them for sure in the long run.

11 picks and good scouting - i hope - will net a draft as good as last year's. That should net us a couple of gems in day three that will keep the super bowl window open hopefully for a longer period. But back to the offensive line. I do hope they are able to draft a potential replacement for Trent, he's not getting any younger, for sure. Getting that potential player this year instead of next year is going to be a huge win for the organization, if they can pull that off.
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