Why does Baalke seem get a free pass from serious criticism?

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
One thing I don't understand -- and this was also mentioned in a PM I received -- is why do did we exercize a large number of picks when the number of available slots is relatively small on our roster? Doesn't it make sense to bundle picks for impact subs/maybe starters? Obviously, trying to get gilbert was out of the question. probably Fuller too. But if we could have found a way to draft Dennard + Ward, should we have taken it? Might have cost us Hyde. But that's ok, IMO. We are not thin at RB.

Let's look at the 12 picks.

3 are gonna be IR'd (Brandon Thomas/Keith Reaser/Trey Millard). That's a good strategy when you have a lot of picks, as it adds to your depth without impacting your immediate season roster limits.

Barring any shocks, all the other draft picks through round 4 should make the team:

Jimmie Ward - Basically the replacement for Carlos Rogers

Carlos Hyde - Replacement for Dixon / Lattimore injury/depth insurance

Marcus Martin - Immediate competition for C with Kilgore, Iupati 2015 departure insurance

Chris Borland - Immediate competitive replacement for Bowman / Willis injury insurance (remember, Willis has missed games two years running now. What if Willis goes down while Bowman is still out? Depth was a need here)

Bruce Ellington - Skill set not like other WRs. Also KR/PR competition of LMJ. Given the injury plague that hit the position a year ago my guess is one of the WRs currently on the team will be on PUP/IR at some point this season anyway.

Dontae Johnson - Team is thin at CB and he should make team as at least a backup CB


So that leaves the following:

Aaron Lynch - Boom/bust pick and Aldon depth insurance. Good use of a 5th rd pick.

Kenneth Acker/Kaleb Ramsey - Likely PS players, which can always use competition, especially because any injury to the 53 at these positions could see a quick promotion in the season.

Every good GM in the league has the advanced analytics when it comes to the Draft

On average, the more picks you have, the better chance for success your team will have, because a certain % will always flame out and the extra picks hedges your bets.

Because of this, what Baalke did last weekend was brilliant. 12 picks!! Did he get our draft crushes? Probably not, because, more often than not, a draft crush is going to have a higher opportunity cost than other non-crushes.

I still think he shoulda went WR more often in a deep class and let them fight it out. But stevie johnson knows how to beat Sherman, so thats alright with me.

Didn't love the draft, but still love Baalke, and I'm hoping it's a huge lift for the future

Originally posted by Big_Daddy:
Did he get our draft crushes? Probably not, because, more often than not, a draft crush is going to have a higher opportunity cost than other non-crushes.

Baalke actually selected a frighteningly-large number of the draft crushes from the Draft War Room forum!

Originally posted by kronik:
Are you saying we should draft other players because other teams rate them high? Maybe, just maybe, our GM and scouts didn't like those players as much as YOU or the other people. Maybe, they like other players more.

Or, are you accusing the team of deliberately drafting crappy players and letting good ones go to other teams?

How about we stick with and support our own scouts and draft board.

It's hilarious. I've been listening to Arizona sports talk radio pretty much all day while working and all the local guys here are sucking off the 49ers for their draft, Baalke is getting so much praise for the picks he made, they're getting lauded for guys like Ward, Hyde, Borland, Martin, Ellington, Johnson.......some of the biggest Cardinals homers imaginable and meanwhile on here you've got people crying about the picks.

Originally posted by captveg:
Let's look at the 12 picks.

3 are gonna be IR'd (Brandon Thomas/Keith Reaser/Trey Millard). That's a good strategy when you have a lot of picks, as it adds to your depth without impacting your immediate season roster limits.

Barring any shocks, all the other draft picks through round 4 should make the team:

Jimmie Ward - Basically the replacement for Carlos Rogers

Carlos Hyde - Replacement for Dixon / Lattimore injury/depth insurance

Marcus Martin - Immediate competition for C with Kilgore, Iupati 2015 departure insurance

Chris Borland - Immediate competitive replacement for Bowman / Willis injury insurance (remember, Willis has missed games two years running now. What if Willis goes down while Bowman is still out? Depth was a need here)

Bruce Ellington - Skill set not like other WRs. Also KR/PR competition of LMJ. Given the injury plague that hit the position a year ago my guess is one of the WRs currently on the team will be on PUP/IR at some point this season anyway.

Dontae Johnson - Team is thin at CB and he should make team as at least a backup CB


So that leaves the following:

Aaron Lynch - Boom/bust pick and Aldon depth insurance. Good use of a 5th rd pick.

Kenneth Acker/Kaleb Ramsey - Likely PS players, which can always use competition, especially because any injury to the 53 at these positions could see a quick promotion in the season.

My only questionable pick was Borland over WR Donte Moncrief. I guess either Moncrief just wasn't high on the 49ers board at the time of the selection, or there was little justification in selecting a rookie who would end up serving as the 4th wideout. Reading your justification of the Borland pick helps.

3. Denver–San Francisco Denver sent: 63rd, 171st overall picks and a 2015 fourth-rounder San Francisco sent: 56th, 242nd overall picks San Francisco got: 153.6 percent of trade value Want to figure out how the 49ers keep managing to find talent and win football games? Trent Baalke's pretty good at this draft stuff. Had the Niners just swapped 56 and 242 for 63 and 171, they would have won the deal by a tiny margin. Baalke managed to up the ante and get a future fourth-rounder to sweeten the pot, which is pretty nice — even projecting the Broncos as the sixth-best team in football next year, the 49ers would be getting the 126th pick in the draft to improve what was already a solid deal. That's not enough for Baalke, though. He wants your cash AND your jewelry. After making this trade, Baalke sent the 63rd and 171st picks he received from Denver to the Dolphins for the 57th selection. In other words, for trading down one spot and giving up the 242nd selection, Baalke got the 126th pick next year. That's the same selection the 49ers used to grab Dashon Goldson in 2007. They might not do that well again, but it's an asset they can use to trade up or stash away the next Marcus Lattimore or Tank Carradine.

http://grantland.com/features/nfl-draft-michael-sam-gay-trades/

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
It's not about the front office, it's about the roster. It's thin at corner:

Cully -- ACL + charges;
Brock -- Solid;
Wright -- did not look like an everydown player last year -- would not take a hit;
Cox -- cut once, brought back cuz wright in the doghouse;
Morris -- Love the kid, no experience, unknown at slot corner;
Cook -- spotty record in Minn;

This is what we had before the draft. I think this situation warrants 2 high round picks IMO. Love to have two solid studs so we can trade/ps/cut wright or cox and not have to hang our hat on Cook.

If we don't see value at db, then lets go pass rush. A good rush covers for db deficiancies. Ealy, trade up for Easley.

That didn't happen either.

C, OL, RB. Just doesn't make sense to me.

I see it a bit different:

Cully -- ACL + charges - Tore his ACL on August 1st, 2013. Had he not torn his ACL, he was slated to start over Rogers (would have been cut d/t salary); FO had him ranked as one of the top CB's in the game in 2012. He will NOT miss a second on the field d/t "charges."
Brock -- Solid; - Solid? Off the bench he contributed more than both Rogers and Brown in two years combined!
Wright -- did not look like an everydown player last year -- would not take a hit; - Really? Wright was slated to be the #3 going into the playoffs until the bad hammy pull. Why did we cut Cox? B/c Wright outplayed him! Wright was never in the "doghouse."
Cox -- cut once, brought back cuz wright in the doghouse; - Became humbled after getting released by us and Seattle. As a result, played his ass off and was probably our best CB through the playoffs (or 2nd best, at worst).
Morris -- Love the kid, no experience, unknown at slot corner; - Actually, he got some experience last year on the field in the slot. I'm like you in that I love his potential. Just a feeling...
Cook -- spotty record in Minn; - This is fair. From the low-lights it appears he had great positioning, played press well but never once had S help over the top and was facing some of the best WR's in the game (who were making acrobatic catches over him). You can work with his skill set though. It should be fun to watch.

Like I said after the completion of round 3, the talent after Gildbert, Fuller, Verrett, etc. in the first round, dropped off a bit but was very even and deep through rounds 6 IMHO. After Ward, I predicted we'd make a run on CB's (3) later and we'd view them as guys with lots of upside but who need time developing. Obviously, Baalke agreed. Only Ward, the first rounder will push both Wright & Cox for the nickle. Morris will compete in the slot. The rest of the rookies add good size, height, weight, speed, etc. When you look at our entire secondary now, you'll see something you've never seen before: youth, speed, size and versatility (ability to play press, off coverage in our exotic schemes, single high S, blitz, etc.). Also, many of these guys instantly add ST value as returners or in the ST coverage units. In all, IMHO, Fangio is going to have many many many more options for game planning and can easily shift on-the-fly in games.

Culliver was ranked 36 as corner in 2012 behind Brown and Rogers on Football Nation. PFF did rank him #9 in yards per coverage snap.

Wright did not look capable of playing 16 games last year. Gimpy. That's all I can say. I wouldn't hang my hat on him, physically.

Cox was cut. SO obviously there were some issues there.

Brock was good, solid. I didn't mean it as an insult. I can't find his final rankings for 2013. No problem. Good player.

I don't see these guys forming a solid, dependable unit, though of course things could turn out that way.

With all the purported depth in the draft, thought this would be a good opportunity to put some measurables in the competion. Thought that would be a real benefit to our game plan and strategy.

Morris is a wild card and I would love to have this guys speed come through.

Brod, sometime shortly before draft, I read script of Baalke's take on CBs. Basically he said the draft was deep with CBs, but was not that high on the top flite CBs. I either read it or saw it on ESPN for a quick blurb.

Hence, it appears he liked the guys deeper in the draft at CB, where he got value, instead of guys in the top 5-7 picks at CB.

Originally posted by kronik:
Are you saying we should draft other players because other teams rate them high? Maybe, just maybe, our GM and scouts didn't like those players as much as YOU or the other people. Maybe, they like other players more.

Or, are you accusing the team of deliberately drafting crappy players and letting good ones go to other teams?

How about we stick with and support our own scouts and draft board.

He is saying we should have drafted as he wanted.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
The reason we did not move up to get the four CBs you thought were good in the first round is because the Niners did not agree with your opinion. They did not feel the first corners were not as good as you thought they were and they felt that the backfield picks that they chose were better than yours. It is that simple. So with Ward, as their first CB, not their first SS, they felt they had good value and good talent, better than any other first round pick. They could have gotten Gilbert, Dennard, Fuller, Verret if they had wanted to but they didn't. They got the players they wanted, not the players you wanted.

All I'm saying is that in getting the players they wanted or the BPA, they didn't meet our needs to a degree commensurate with those needs.

No, just your needs.

Originally posted by Dsoto87:
Thank god you're not our GM

I wish he is an NFL GM.

For Seattle.

Originally posted by pd24:
I don't think any of us can say that Baalke doesn't know how to draft or spot talent when it comes to the secondary.

Culliver
Brock
Reid

Went after Whitner and Rogers in FA.

Let Goldson walk and upgraded.

I think he drafted 1 starter in Ward for sure at safety down the line and I think 1 or 2 of the other CB's pan out.

BrodieBB has been saying this.

BrodieBB thinks he can do better than Baalke as a fan.

I wish Seattle hires him.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by kronik:
Are you saying we should draft other players because other teams rate them high? Maybe, just maybe, our GM and scouts didn't like those players as much as YOU or the other people. Maybe, they like other players more.

Or, are you accusing the team of deliberately drafting crappy players and letting good ones go to other teams?

How about we stick with and support our own scouts and draft board.

It's hilarious. I've been listening to Arizona sports talk radio pretty much all day while working and all the local guys here are sucking off the 49ers for their draft, Baalke is getting so much praise for the picks he made, they're getting lauded for guys like Ward, Hyde, Borland, Martin, Ellington, Johnson.......some of the biggest Cardinals homers imaginable and meanwhile on here you've got people crying about the picks.

How else can you show that you're more knowledgeable than the rest of us?

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Culliver was ranked 36 as corner in 2012 behind Brown and Rogers on Football Nation. PFF did rank him #9 in yards per coverage snap.

Wright did not look capable of playing 16 games last year. Gimpy. That's all I can say. I wouldn't hang my hat on him, physically.

Cox was cut. SO obviously there were some issues there.

Brock was good, solid. I didn't mean it as an insult. I can't find his final rankings for 2013. No problem. Good player.

I don't see these guys forming a solid, dependable unit, though of course things could turn out that way.

With all the purported depth in the draft, thought this would be a good opportunity to put some measurables in the competion. Thought that would be a real benefit to our game plan and strategy.

Morris is a wild card and I would love to have this guys speed come through.

I certainly don't feel you are off your rocker for wanting to upgrade an "unknown" position esp. when the "known" bolted to the bottom feeders. I respect your opinion for sure...at the end of the day, you just want what we all want. We're just saying be patient here and watch what happens. And in the end, if you end up being right, we all lose.

Cully - He plays even more aggressive than Brock. I love that.
Wright - Agree that he is a bit of an unknown. So we'll have to see but clearly, unlike when Rogers and Brown were here, he has a "license" to push for a starting position and a full off season to prepare. Knowing you have a real chance to start is a huge mental change and added motivation.
Cox - I think he got caught in the numbers game and Wright beat him out but it ended up working out as Cox played his heart out AND we ended up signing both he and Wright again. Smart.
Brock - gotcha! This kid has tons of upside and just got better and better and better.
Morris - I'm with you 100% on this one. This kid is not only quick but ultra fast. He is the one I may want covering the Harvin's of the world.
Ward - Super excited about this "12th starter."
Cook and Johnson - How nice will it be to see the opposing WR's get beat up at the LOS for a change?
Keith Reaser (PUP) & Kenneth Acker - Sounds like they have some potential as well.

I think with the added pass rush in Carradine, a more experienced Lemonier, Skuta and perhaps, Lynch coupled with Ian Williams inside (slasher-gap NT), I think this also opens the doors for many more blitzes with Bethea and the rest of the secondary. What I saw in the Seattle game was Fangio dialing up the blitz more. With the added pass rush and rotation/depth, he can feel more free to dial up more aggression on the press and knowing these guys CAN press and won't have to cover long...they just need to ensure we don't get beat over the top (hence Reid and Ward's speed and range).

Last year, we only activated 10 DB's on the active-46. They will be replaced by (X):
Whitner (Bethea)
Reid (Reid)
Brock (Brock)
Brown (Culliver)
Rogers (Ward)
Cox (Cox or Wright)
Spillman (Spillman)
Dahl (Johnson or Cook?)
Morris (Morris)
Ventrone (Ventrone)

We had the 7th rated passing defense last year and we could only play one style of defense...off coverage. So the question is, is Bethea a downgrade over Whitner from last year? Is Culliver a downgrade over Brown last year? And is Ward really a downgrade over Rogers last year? Most would say we're at least equal, right? Maybe better to start with a much higher ceiling d/t age, skill sets, versatility, speed, range, cover abilities, etc.? So even if we brought in Verrett or Fuller or even later, Gaines/Jean-Bastiste, would any of them be significantly better that what we currently have slated to start 2014? And enough to give up the the "clear" top-rated positions of FS, RB, ILB & C as a consequence?