Originally posted by Niners816:
Here is Harbaugh's Head coaching passing profile:
2004 SD 60.2% Comp 25Td 6Int
2005 SD 70.1% Comp 38Td 8Int
2006 SD 66.3% Comp 34Td 5Int
2007 STAN 55.5% Comp 12Td 12Int
2008 STAN 57.9% Comp 11Td 15Int
2009 STAN 56.3% Comp 14Td 6Int
2010 STAN 70.7% Comp 32Td 8Int
2011 SF 61.4% Comp 17Td 5Int
2012 SF 66.3% Comp 23Td 8Int
2013 SF 58.5% Comp 21Td 8Int
Outside of a couple of undermanned Stanford teams, Harbaugh's team usually do a great job of limiting turnovers. I guess you could argue that limiting attempts naturally leads to this. However, having a 2/1 TD/Int or in some cases a 3+/1 TD/Int is no small feat. I remember it was mentioned earlier in this thread how his qb's usually have a bump in comp % from first FULL year to second. These numbers illustrate just that, Luck went for 56-70, Smith went from 61-70 (before the switch). Lets just hope Kaep has a similar result. If he can start hitting at a 63-64% clip, I have little doubt this passing attack can start to approach that 225-240 ypg.
Thanks for this info!
So that's an average of 62.3% completion rate with 22 TD's and 8 INT's.
So, that's right in line with CK's projections for next year as well:
Kaepernick will have a completion percentage of 56.7 & and pass for an average of 217 yards a game (3,487 for the year) and throw for 20 TD's and 8 INT's and have a QB rating of 91.3.
We may see a slight improvement in completion percentage (from 56.7% closer to the average @ 62.3%) with Boldin and Crabtree healthy to start the year. And perhaps, HaRoMan/Geep will coach up CK to utilize the check-downs a bit more. Another big factor in this will be success of running on first downs so we won't constantly be in 2nd & 3rd and longs. That should help with the completion percentage as well.
But the bottom line is, the Stanford/Bo Schemblacher offense of mixed fruits is consistent in their philosophy...ground-game focus, TOP-controlled, low TO's, conservative esp. in the RZ and the passing game is merely used as an extention of this conservative approach (schemed AR 1 or 2's and primary read-centric in PS plays/formations).
So fans that have different expectations of an explosive offense needs to look at history under Harbaugh and these stats when both Crabtree and Boldin were healthy (8 games & 16-game projection) and also the adverse affect it had on VD.
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 4, 2014 at 8:24 AM ]