What is Kaeps worth....?

Originally posted by BrianGO:

"You say fans will rag on him if he doesn't give us a deal but you say he's dumb for opening that possibility."
Those are not disparate statements.
Fans will rag on him because he has implied that he will provide a "discount". A "discount" in some fans minds is a 5 - 10 million hit to his annual salary, which is a fantasy. When this fantasy does not come to fruition, some fans will be very angry at Kap because their definition of "discount" is separate from reality. The reality is that any possible discount will come in the form of an incentive laden contract, with good guarantees, and probably more money on the back end. This could bring the first few years down to 14 - 17 million; where the fantasy contract, is probably more like 10 - 15 million per, without any special incentives or guarantees, or back end money etc.

"Next you try to talks about Tom Bradys contract and put Kap into that context."
I was pointing out how they are NOT similar situations. Obviously. Therefore don't expect a similar contract like Brady's.
Brady's contract appears like a "home town discount" because of the reasons I mentioned; but it is a mirage. In other words, there is no situation in the history of the national football league, where a player in Kap's situation provides some mythical "home town" discount and gets paid 25% - 50% less than he could make, because he wants his team to keep its talent.

"Then you make the dumbest comment by saying Kap isn't responsible for paying his teammates salaries...he isn't paying s**t."
It was obviously a figurative statement; not literal.
Boldin and Whiter make over ten million a year. If Kap wants to keep them, then he has to essentially (of course not "literally") "pay" their salaries by taking drastically less money than market value.

"If you want this kid to be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players you don't understand football."
Really?
I would love to be shown a player who has played in the national football league, in a similar situation to Kap, and did, as you say, "not be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players". Please do find me one situation where this has occurred.
Tom Brady's situation has already been discussed ad nauseam, so you have to pick someone else.

Out of the current crop of franchise quarterbacks in the NFL:

Cutler - Stingy ass
Ryan - Stingy ass
Stafford - Stingy ass
Romo - Stingy ass
Flacco - The stingy ass king
Brees - Stingy ass
P Manning - Stingy ass
E Manning - Stingy ass
Rogers - Stingy ass
Rivers - Stingy ass
Roethlisberger - Stingy ass
Brady - Already extremely wealthy, with a contract guaranteed for injury. The ONE exception.

Every quarterback who is seen as a franchise player, has been a "stingy ass", yet somehow I have this idea in my head that Kap will be just like every other player? How could I come to that conclusion? Perhaps its this crazy thing called "historical evidence" I've been smoking.

Anything more than 17 a year is a waste of cash. He is not at the point where he can command top level dollars. All those guys, most have rings. When you get a ring you get paid. The others were top picks who have had increased contracts since they entered the NFL. Then you have Romo...jerry jones nuff said. All of these players have been in the league starting for years, Kap hasn't. His greatest accomplishment is getting to the Super bowl and losing. Aside from that he has taken us where Smith did a few years ago, that's not 20 mill territory. He needs to take less to win, bottom line. He will not be good with crap at WR, when he had crap he never threw to it, so we know how he reacts to it. If he wants to stay competitive he needs to have talent around him. Trent isn't going to give him 100+ mill, it would be a drastic mistake and one we cannot afford.

And regarding a cap increase...the most we could get is 2mill per NFP. Its not enough.

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by BrianGO:
Kap has just made a huge mistake. Because of these comments, now fans expectations for the contract are going to be pure fantasy. If the contract is anything over 10 million, fans will turn on him, call him a "liar", a "cheat", etc. This is going to get ugly.

Kap, that was a very dumb thing for you to say.

Come on. $10 million would be a bargain for the Niners and you know it. If fans are going to be angry about that kind of number, they just have no grasp on reality.

If Kap makes ten million next year, it will be because he has a lot more guaranteed money coming later, and fans will complain about that too. I would hate nothing more than to mortgage our future with a balloon contract, that kills us in 3 - 4 years, but let's us sit pretty for 2 - 3 years.

I really can't figure out what you think is fair for this kid. You say fans will rag on him if he doesn't give us a deal but you say he's dumb for opening that possibility. Next you try to talka about Tom Bradys contract and put Kap into that context. FYI Kap is not a 10 year vet with Super bowl rings, records, and a HOF ballot waiting for him. Then you bring up Bradys wife...why? Because Brady is in a wealthy relationship Kap is now worth more or something? Then you make the dumbest comment by saying Kap isn't responsible for paying his teammates salaries...he isn't paying s**t. He would not be on a winning team without them, Boldin saved his ass the year. If you want this kid to be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players you don't understand football.

"You say fans will rag on him if he doesn't give us a deal but you say he's dumb for opening that possibility."
Those are not disparate statements.
Fans will rag on him because he has implied that he will provide a "discount". A "discount" in some fans minds is a 5 - 10 million hit to his annual salary, which is a fantasy. When this fantasy does not come to fruition, some fans will be very angry at Kap because their definition of "discount" is separate from reality. The reality is that any possible discount will come in the form of an incentive laden contract, with good guarantees, and probably more money on the back end. This could bring the first few years down to 14 - 17 million; where the fantasy contract, is probably more like 10 - 15 million per, without any special incentives or guarantees, or back end money etc.

"Next you try to talks about Tom Bradys contract and put Kap into that context."
I was pointing out how they are NOT similar situations. Obviously. Therefore don't expect a similar contract like Brady's.
Brady's contract appears like a "home town discount" because of the reasons I mentioned; but it is a mirage. In other words, there is no situation in the history of the national football league, where a player in Kap's situation provides some mythical "home town" discount and gets paid 25% - 50% less than he could make, because he wants his team to keep its talent.

"Then you make the dumbest comment by saying Kap isn't responsible for paying his teammates salaries...he isn't paying s**t."
It was obviously a figurative statement; not literal.
Boldin and Whiter make over ten million a year. If Kap wants to keep them, then he has to essentially (of course not "literally") "pay" their salaries by taking drastically less money than market value.

"If you want this kid to be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players you don't understand football."
Really?
I would love to be shown a player who has played in the national football league, in a similar situation to Kap, and did, as you say, "not be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players". Please do find me one situation where this has occurred.
Tom Brady's situation has already been discussed ad nauseam, so you have to pick someone else.

Out of the current crop of franchise quarterbacks in the NFL:

Cutler - Stingy ass
Ryan - Stingy ass
Stafford - Stingy ass
Romo - Stingy ass
Flacco - The stingy ass king
Brees - Stingy ass
P Manning - Stingy ass
E Manning - Stingy ass
Rogers - Stingy ass
Rivers - Stingy ass
Roethlisberger - Stingy ass
Brady - Already extremely wealthy, with a contract guaranteed for injury. The ONE exception.

Every quarterback who is seen as a franchise player, has been a "stingy ass", yet somehow I have this idea in my head that Kap will be just like every other player? How could I come to that conclusion? Perhaps its this crazy thing called "historical evidence" I've been smoking.

To be fair almost all of those are third and even fourth deals in the league...not their second. The two that are in their second were high first round picks in the uncapped rookie salary era and were hardly going to take a step back with their next one. If your going to sight history at least try not cooking the books in your favor.

The fact is we dont know the market for these guys comming up on second deals because it is an unprecidented era....they didnt get 100m contracts out of college and the scales could swing either way. They could be looking to make up for all the money they think they "lost" by not comming out a year or two earlier or they could just be happy with the enormous raise they will get that still places them well under the market set by the guys above. It is really up to guys like Wilson, Kap and Luck as well as their agents and their teams to decide the future of how QB's will be paid going forward and it starts right now. The salary structure we operate under could continue on or change forever this offseason.

Originally posted by BrianGO:
That sounds all very nice, but we'll see exactly what kind of "team discount" actually happens.

Anquan Boldin and Donte Whitner together make over 10,000,000 dollars a year. That's ten MILLION dollars a year. Is Kap going to say goodbye to TEN MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, just so the team can keep those extra weapons?

"He doesn't have to give up that much...", you say? So he just says goodbye to, let's say four million a year. OK great, but that doesn't pay for EITHER Anquan Boldin or Donte Whitner.

"But Tom Brady cares about winning, Kap should follow his example." Huh? Tom Brady has already made tens of millions of dollars in his career, and his wife makes even more than him. Not only that, but Brady's contract is guaranteed for INJURY.
Kap is a young kid who has NOTHING GUARANTEED to him. He could get injured and then it's all over for him. It would be an absolutely UNPRECEDENTED move of Kap to throw ten million dollars a year into the garbage for "rah, rah, rah, team". It has never happened before, and once Kap sits down with his agent, all the nice TALK about how "everybody needs to get paid", will begin to look very, very, VERY expensive.

Kap has just made a huge mistake. Because of these comments, now fans expectations for the contract are going to be pure fantasy. If the contract is anything over 10 million, fans will turn on him, call him a "liar", a "cheat", etc. This is going to get ugly.

Kap, that was a very dumb thing for you to say.

Do you honestly believe the 49ers will pay Kap $20M a year in cap/cash value? That's a cap killer. Not one player is worth killing the cap over, just to satisfy their ego. Not saying Kap has one. But there is no way in hell he gets a $20M a yr deal right now. Maybe later on when the cap finally raises up more than 1M a yr, up to around $7-$10 million a year more.

I have said for months, and months that Kap would be best off signing a 4yr deal worth $65M, that's around $16.25M a yr average wise. That is, IMO, a fair deal for both sides. He should do this, because right now, he is NOT a elite QB, and his deal shouldn't be near Flacco's deal. Or Peyton's deal. He should take a Rodger deals, only the small one he took before he signed his recent extension. Rodgers did it, and he wasn't selfish was he? The Packers were able to keep guys around, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, etc...

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Spotrac's guess is not happening, they will not pay Kap 19M a year, not happening, can't happen with the current cap. If it means sacrificing talent, like Boldin, Dawson, etc.. And make 1 player happy, it's not worth it.

Even former agent Joel Corry said they wouldn't give Kap $18M a year, or anything close to the structure of Flacco's deal, which hits a high of $30M in 1 year. I go with Corry over a piece of s**t website like Spotrac, who mind you ripped me off of my numbers, and there IP is banned from my website. Never gave permission to copy all my numbers. They did the same with OverTheCap.com, took all of their numbers, and copied them in 1 night.

So, I don't expect them to sacrifice key players this year in order to make 1 player happy. Re-sign Boldin, Dawson, and others, and then in 2015 extend or tag him. We are too tight against the cap to afford a $18M-$20M QB.

AB--Do you know how much of Flacco's contract is guaranteed? So many of these contracts are smoke and mirrors I have no faith in the numbers being real. If they said 18 million but only 5 guaranteed, with team options to bail in any year...it's meaningless. Is there a site that you know of that breaks down the guarantees, etc. of contracts?

There really isn't a one site that breaks down guarantees. OTC does it sorta.

http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Joe%20Flacco&Position=QB&Team=Ravens

Flacco got $29 million guaranteed when he signed last March with Baltimore. It is essentially a 3 yr deal. Because, Flacco makes $18M in cash starting 2016, then $20.6M in 2017, and $20M in 2018. He is also due a $23.75M bonus, not sure exactly which version, if Option or another signing bonus, probably option bonus, that prorates over 5 years, at $4.75M. Which is why hi 2016 cap is $28.55M, and 2017 is $31.15M. He also has factored in $5.8M from his initial signing bonus proration.

That extra bonus would then be guaranteed once paid out, so he would then have a total of $52.75M in guaranteed money in his deal he signed in March 2013. He will need to restructure before 2016 and 2017. No way Baltimore pays out that much on one player.

Originally posted by BrianGO:
I would prefer that. I hate deals that hurt you later. I say just make it incentive laden and no back loading. We have leverage because Kap still plays for peanuts for one more year. 17 million can work with the leverage we have and the right incentives.

Based on the market right now? How many teams that haven't already locked up a QB (to a large/long term contract they can't get out from under) will have more than $15 million a year to pay Kap?

"The market" is VERY small and is mostly made up of really bad franchises.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
There really isn't a one site that breaks down guarantees. OTC does it sorta.

http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Joe%20Flacco&Position=QB&Team=Ravens

Flacco got $29 million guaranteed when he signed last March with Baltimore. It is essentially a 3 yr deal. Because, Flacco makes $18M in cash starting 2016, then $20.6M in 2017, and $20M in 2018. He is also due a $23.75M bonus, not sure exactly which version, if Option or another signing bonus, probably option bonus, that prorates over 5 years, at $4.75M. Which is why hi 2016 cap is $28.55M, and 2017 is $31.15M. He also has factored in $5.8M from his initial signing bonus proration.

That extra bonus would then be guaranteed once paid out, so he would then have a total of $52.75M in guaranteed money in his deal he signed in March 2013. He will need to restructure before 2016 and 2017. No way Baltimore pays out that much on one player.

Thanks! I have to start paying attention to this stuff!

Originally posted by BrianGO:
"You say fans will rag on him if he doesn't give us a deal but you say he's dumb for opening that possibility."
Those are not disparate statements.
Fans will rag on him because he has implied that he will provide a "discount". A "discount" in some fans minds is a 5 - 10 million hit to his annual salary, which is a fantasy. When this fantasy does not come to fruition, some fans will be very angry at Kap because their definition of "discount" is separate from reality. The reality is that any possible discount will come in the form of an incentive laden contract, with good guarantees, and probably more money on the back end. This could bring the first few years down to 14 - 17 million; where the fantasy contract, is probably more like 10 - 15 million per, without any special incentives or guarantees, or back end money etc.

"Next you try to talks about Tom Bradys contract and put Kap into that context."
I was pointing out how they are NOT similar situations. Obviously. Therefore don't expect a similar contract like Brady's.
Brady's contract appears like a "home town discount" because of the reasons I mentioned; but it is a mirage. In other words, there is no situation in the history of the national football league, where a player in Kap's situation provides some mythical "home town" discount and gets paid 25% - 50% less than he could make, because he wants his team to keep its talent.

"Then you make the dumbest comment by saying Kap isn't responsible for paying his teammates salaries...he isn't paying s**t."
It was obviously a figurative statement; not literal.
Boldin and Whiter make over ten million a year. If Kap wants to keep them, then he has to essentially (of course not "literally") "pay" their salaries by taking drastically less money than market value.

"If you want this kid to be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players you don't understand football."
Really?
I would love to be shown a player who has played in the national football league, in a similar situation to Kap, and did, as you say, "not be a stingy ass for money and f**k the ability to retain solid players". Please do find me one situation where this has occurred.
Tom Brady's situation has already been discussed ad nauseam, so you have to pick someone else.

Out of the current crop of franchise quarterbacks in the NFL:

Cutler - Stingy ass
Ryan - Stingy ass
Stafford - Stingy ass
Romo - Stingy ass
Flacco - The stingy ass king
Brees - Stingy ass
P Manning - Stingy ass
E Manning - Stingy ass
Rogers - Stingy ass
Rivers - Stingy ass
Roethlisberger - Stingy ass
Brady - Already extremely wealthy, with a contract guaranteed for injury. The ONE exception.

Every quarterback who is seen as a franchise player, has been a "stingy ass", yet somehow I have this idea in my head that Kap will be just like every other player? How could I come to that conclusion? Perhaps its this crazy thing called "historical evidence" I've been smoking.

I get your point in calling certain QBs stingy, but I can't put Brees and Peyton Manning in those categories. In the case of those QBs, they are the reason their teams can contend for Super Bowls. Put a lesser QB there and it's likely either the team doesn't do jack or is mired in mediocrity/wildcard playoff births. When you are that kind of QB, I don't mind the huge contract approaching or above 20 million. Now the others on the other hand, I'm totally with you. These guys need more help than a Manning or Brees would need, therefore shouldn't be going for those types of deals IF they are trying to win.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

I get your point in calling certain QBs stingy, but I can't put Brees and Peyton Manning in those categories. In the case of those QBs, they are the reason their teams can contend for Super Bowls. Put a lesser QB there and it's likely either the team doesn't do jack or is mired in mediocrity/wildcard playoff births. When you are that kind of QB, I don't mind the huge contract approaching or above 20 million. Now the others on the other hand, I'm totally with you. These guys need more help than a Manning or Brees would need, therefore shouldn't be going for those types of deals IF they are trying to win.

Let me turn this round the other way. I accept that Manning and Brees are the reason their teams are challenging. But is their respective salary cap hits the reason why their teams are reliant on them?

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by BrianGO:
That sounds all very nice, but we'll see exactly what kind of "team discount" actually happens.

Anquan Boldin and Donte Whitner together make over 10,000,000 dollars a year. That's ten MILLION dollars a year. Is Kap going to say goodbye to TEN MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, just so the team can keep those extra weapons?

"He doesn't have to give up that much...", you say? So he just says goodbye to, let's say four million a year. OK great, but that doesn't pay for EITHER Anquan Boldin or Donte Whitner.

"But Tom Brady cares about winning, Kap should follow his example." Huh? Tom Brady has already made tens of millions of dollars in his career, and his wife makes even more than him. Not only that, but Brady's contract is guaranteed for INJURY.
Kap is a young kid who has NOTHING GUARANTEED to him. He could get injured and then it's all over for him. It would be an absolutely UNPRECEDENTED move of Kap to throw ten million dollars a year into the garbage for "rah, rah, rah, team". It has never happened before, and once Kap sits down with his agent, all the nice TALK about how "everybody needs to get paid", will begin to look very, very, VERY expensive.

Kap has just made a huge mistake. Because of these comments, now fans expectations for the contract are going to be pure fantasy. If the contract is anything over 10 million, fans will turn on him, call him a "liar", a "cheat", etc. This is going to get ugly.

Kap, that was a very dumb thing for you to say.

Do you honestly believe the 49ers will pay Kap $20M a year in cap/cash value? That's a cap killer. Not one player is worth killing the cap over, just to satisfy their ego. Not saying Kap has one. But there is no way in hell he gets a $20M a yr deal right now. Maybe later on when the cap finally raises up more than 1M a yr, up to around $7-$10 million a year more.

I have said for months, and months that Kap would be best off signing a 4yr deal worth $65M, that's around $16.25M a yr average wise. That is, IMO, a fair deal for both sides. He should do this, because right now, he is NOT a elite QB, and his deal shouldn't be near Flacco's deal. Or Peyton's deal. He should take a Rodger deals, only the small one he took before he signed his recent extension. Rodgers did it, and he wasn't selfish was he? The Packers were able to keep guys around, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, etc...

I agree with that.

My number was slightly higher because I am assuming: A: A longer term contract with "agent years" that make the contract look bigger than it is, and B: A longer term contract will project future inflation, hence making the average higher.
Contracts are weird these days, and it is difficult to discuss what "average" means etc, because there are so many "fake" years at the end of a contract.

I think that projection is very reasonable, but I would hope for a longer term deal. I think we can get a DISCOUNT in the long run, by doing a longer term deal.
It's all about, "buy low, sell high", not, "buy at market price". The reason we can get Kap at a "good" price right now, is because we still have him under contract for another year making peanuts, and, unfortunately, he hasn't "gone Flacco" on us and won a Super Bowl yet.

The Steelers signed Roethlisberger to a long deal I believe, and now they are saving money because of it. The longer the deal, the better the cap savings, is what I am trying to say.

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

If Kap goes for $15 million annually he had taken a severe cut for the Niners based on the market right now. I am wondering if we can nab him for about $17 million annually?

15M is not a cut. He's played 1 and a half seasons of pro-football.

Originally posted by BrianGO:
I agree with that.

My number was slightly higher because I am assuming: A: A longer term contract with "agent years" that make the contract look bigger than it is, and B: A longer term contract will project future inflation, hence making the average higher.
Contracts are weird these days, and it is difficult to discuss what "average" means etc, because there are so many "fake" years at the end of a contract.

I think that projection is very reasonable, but I would hope for a longer term deal. I think we can get a DISCOUNT in the long run, by doing a longer term deal.
It's all about, "buy low, sell high", not, "buy at market price". The reason we can get Kap at a "good" price right now, is because we still have him under contract for another year making peanuts, and, unfortunately, he hasn't "gone Flacco" on us and won a Super Bowl yet.

The Steelers signed Roethlisberger to a long deal I believe, and now they are saving money because of it. The longer the deal, the better the cap savings, is what I am trying to say.

I agree. It need to be structured the right way. 2016 should be the year the cap rises significantly. At least I hope so. If we are able to get it cheap for 2014, and 2015, and 2016 to be safe, then we can backload it in 2017-2019 or however many years he is signed for, whether a 6 yr deal or 7 yr deal.

Contract prediction:

5 years, 70 million dollars, 45 guaranteed.

After watching Manning smoke it off Kaeps price is going up by the quarter!

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:

After watching Manning smoke it off Kaeps price is going up by the quarter!

Good thing you're not the GM......

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:
After watching Manning smoke it off Kaeps price is going up by the quarter!

Manning, Brees, Brady. Those players are special.

None of those players lost the game at the end against Seattle. Kap needs to learn from them.