Analysis from the Tampa Bay coaches film

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.

Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Agreed. And while you mull over Crabtree's fit on the field and isubsequent potential fustrations in the near future, I'll also focus on WHY we didn't come back to this play later and exploit this mimatch by making Crabtree the AR1 this time or coaching/instructions to alert CK to expect Crabtree to break open first in a PS play.

Also remember that, while Roman certainly saw that, the Buc's certainly saw it too. I'm sure, just like our guys did, they alerted them to the blown coverage from that formation. You usually only get one shot at a busted coverage like that in a game. That's why you have to mix up your formations that you run certain plays from. But, that kind of play, you can only really run out of a bunch formation.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Also remember that, while Roman certainly saw that, the Buc's certainly saw it too. I'm sure, just like our guys did, they alerted them to the blown coverage from that formation. You usually only get one shot at a busted coverage like that in a game. That's why you have to mix up your formations that you run certain plays from. But, that kind of play, you can only really run out of a bunch formation.

And when the WR makes it obvious, the D will be even more on notice. I thought Crabtree was over this aspect of his immaturity and am somewhat disappointed.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.

Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Agreed. And while you mull over Crabtree's fit on the field and isubsequent potential fustrations in the near future, I'll also focus on WHY we didn't come back to this play later and exploit this mimatch by making Crabtree the AR1 this time or coaching/instructions to alert CK to expect Crabtree to break open first in a PS play.

Also remember that, while Roman certainly saw that, the Buc's certainly saw it too. I'm sure, just like our guys did, they alerted them to the blown coverage from that formation. You usually only get one shot at a busted coverage like that in a game. That's why you have to mix up your formations that you run certain plays from. But, that kind of play, you can only really run out of a bunch formation.

I agree with you Jonny. That said, I'd take my chances later and make it a PS design where CK can target either option (or even VD deeper)...I'd esp. take my chances with Crabtree the primary look too as coming across the middle out of that bunch formation, could be a win every time. I like the design a lot.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, I've gone through a lot of Falcons game film. There are a lot of things the Falcons do well, but, they have definitely missed Julio Jones. Defenses play them much differently without Julio. He really made the offense click. That, and their running offense was different than it is with Jackson. With Michael Turner they were much more of a power running game, with a lot of trap, power and dives with occasional zone runs. Last year in the NFCCG they ran a lot more traps and power against us.

This year they are much more of a zone running scheme. They're running game is a lot like the Buc's, the difference is the runner. Barney for the Buc's was a much more, "find the open space" runner who has good burst through the hole. Jackson uses the zone run to set up guys trying to arm tackle, he then runs with his heavy frame into the defense. He looks to run through arm tackles, not run people over most of the time. This is why the Falcons use the zone run scheme with him. When their offense is on schedule, it's very effective. Jackson is still a good RB. It's going to be on McDonald and Justin Smith to hold down the O-lineman to allow for Bow and Willis to hit Jackson head on. I see the Falcons trying to go 3 WR to run the ball.

Last year when we played them, Willis got the majority of the duties in covering Gonzales. Mainly, because Willis is more physical in his coverage, while Bowman is a better change of direction type of coverage player. So, they would use Willis in coverage on Gonzales, while Bowman would lurk the middle of the field. Plus, Gonzales get's so physical with the defender, that trying to use your quickness against him doesn't work.

Last year, we ran a lot of man coverage, but when we went zone, they primarily targeted Roddy White. The same holds true this year. When the opposing team goes zone coverage they like to use White's large frame to run over the middle. If we go zone, I see us running a lot of cover 3 to take away the middle of the field. When we run man, expect Whitner to give Willis inside help from the safety spot on Gonzales. This year when teams run man coverage they look for Gonzales.

I also see them flexing Gonzales out to Aldon's side from a 2 TE set a lot and trying to hit some flood routes towards Gonzales with Jackson as the flat receiver. This means Reid is gonna have to strap it on this week. He'll probably be asked to take on Jackson in the open field in the flat.

I don't see us hardly blitzing them this week. The biggest weakness for the Falcons this year has been their offensive line by far. They are not playing well at all. Brian Orakpo absolutely manhandled every member of that offensive line in the last game at some point. They have also given up consistent pressure vs. just about every front they've played. This is a team that is still trying to figure out it's identity. They knew who they were last year, but this year, with the loss of Julio Jones and with the change in running scheme, they haven't adapted well to how defenses are now playing them differently.

That's how I see us attacking them from the defensive side of the ball.

From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

Mike Nolan loves to use multiple fronts to make life harder on the O-line. I have seen them run a multitude of fronts, 3-4, 4-3 over, 4-3 under, 4-3 even, 6-2, 3-4 over, 2-4, 3-3-5. They love to show a lot of different fronts. This requires smart, active DT's to pull off. Last year, they started out with a lot of man coverage on 1st and 2nd down and usually an exotic zone blitz on 3rd down. When we started running the ball more effectively, the LB's started to play more forward aggressive. When that happened we started to hit Vernon matched up against either a S or a LB on some crossing/wheel routes. Then, they went to more of a zone coverage, which is when we started to hit Crabtree in the zones more. When playing man, ATL likes to play off coverage with the corners. There were 3 times last year when Kaep saw this and pulled the ball up on a running play and threw it to Crabtree(you could see by the O-line and RB's it was clearly a running play called) I see ATL this year trying to play more press zone at the beginning of the game. Look for us to try and hit Crab's on some crossing patterns in the game as well as some designed plays to get Boldin the ball in space with some blockers against the zone. DeCoud is quicker than fast and not a great tackler so I see him as the guy they try and get Boldin the ball against in open space.

Overall, I see us winning this game. We're probably not going to have a point total to reflect how well we'll dominate this game. We're going to win the TOP by a wide margin and probably put up 24-27 points. I don't see our defense giving up more than 13 points against them.

That's how I see us attacking them on defense. Prob

Fantastic work Jonny...bumping for all!

I wonder--sometimes, when you are teaching someone a new set of skills, the student regresses in the instinctive aspects of the job. Seems CK may be trying to see progressions in a certain way that is new to him and it causes him to miss some pretty obvious opportunities. Not a rare thing in any learning environment and learning the NFL QB position would be pretty daunting! You never know how long it will take for that student to master the nuances and become fluid...a year, a day...

Could that explain your AR theory NC? They're telling him to look at the obvious guy first and foremost and if he's comfortable go to the next and the next?

Jonnydel, despite their record, ATL's passing offense is still, at least stats-wise, one of the better passing offenses we've gone up against this year. Harry Douglas is now their leading receiver, not White or Gonzalez. Did anything stand out to you as far as what ATL has tried to do with Douglas, that has made him so successful?
How do the Niners neutralize Douglas?

Originally posted by ace52:
Jonnydel, despite their record, ATL's passing offense is still, at least stats-wise, one of the better passing offenses we've gone up against this year. Harry Douglas is now their leading receiver, not White or Gonzalez. Did anything stand out to you as far as what ATL has tried to do with Douglas, that has made him so successful?
How do the Niners neutralize Douglas?

I think that stat is quite misleading actually. Atlanta has been getting pounded on so much this year by halftime that they have collected a lot of garbage time stats. I know I had Douglas on fantasy lol.

Originally posted by ace52:
Jonnydel, despite their record, ATL's passing offense is still, at least stats-wise, one of the better passing offenses we've gone up against this year. Harry Douglas is now their leading receiver, not White or Gonzalez. Did anything stand out to you as far as what ATL has tried to do with Douglas, that has made him so successful?
How do the Niners neutralize Douglas?

Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Originally posted by ace52:

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, I've gone through a lot of Falcons game film. There are a lot of things the Falcons do well, but, they have definitely missed Julio Jones. Defenses play them much differently without Julio. He really made the offense click. That, and their running offense was different than it is with Jackson. With Michael Turner they were much more of a power running game, with a lot of trap, power and dives with occasional zone runs. Last year in the NFCCG they ran a lot more traps and power against us.

This year they are much more of a zone running scheme. They're running game is a lot like the Buc's, the difference is the runner. Barney for the Buc's was a much more, "find the open space" runner who has good burst through the hole. Jackson uses the zone run to set up guys trying to arm tackle, he then runs with his heavy frame into the defense. He looks to run through arm tackles, not run people over most of the time. This is why the Falcons use the zone run scheme with him. When their offense is on schedule, it's very effective. Jackson is still a good RB. It's going to be on McDonald and Justin Smith to hold down the O-lineman to allow for Bow and Willis to hit Jackson head on. I see the Falcons trying to go 3 WR to run the ball.

Last year when we played them, Willis got the majority of the duties in covering Gonzales. Mainly, because Willis is more physical in his coverage, while Bowman is a better change of direction type of coverage player. So, they would use Willis in coverage on Gonzales, while Bowman would lurk the middle of the field. Plus, Gonzales get's so physical with the defender, that trying to use your quickness against him doesn't work.

Last year, we ran a lot of man coverage, but when we went zone, they primarily targeted Roddy White. The same holds true this year. When the opposing team goes zone coverage they like to use White's large frame to run over the middle. If we go zone, I see us running a lot of cover 3 to take away the middle of the field. When we run man, expect Whitner to give Willis inside help from the safety spot on Gonzales. This year when teams run man coverage they look for Gonzales.

I also see them flexing Gonzales out to Aldon's side from a 2 TE set a lot and trying to hit some flood routes towards Gonzales with Jackson as the flat receiver. This means Reid is gonna have to strap it on this week. He'll probably be asked to take on Jackson in the open field in the flat.

I don't see us hardly blitzing them this week. The biggest weakness for the Falcons this year has been their offensive line by far. They are not playing well at all. Brian Orakpo absolutely manhandled every member of that offensive line in the last game at some point. They have also given up consistent pressure vs. just about every front they've played. This is a team that is still trying to figure out it's identity. They knew who they were last year, but this year, with the loss of Julio Jones and with the change in running scheme, they haven't adapted well to how defenses are now playing them differently.

That's how I see us attacking them from the defensive side of the ball.

From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

Mike Nolan loves to use multiple fronts to make life harder on the O-line. I have seen them run a multitude of fronts, 3-4, 4-3 over, 4-3 under, 4-3 even, 6-2, 3-4 over, 2-4, 3-3-5. They love to show a lot of different fronts. This requires smart, active DT's to pull off. Last year, they started out with a lot of man coverage on 1st and 2nd down and usually an exotic zone blitz on 3rd down. When we started running the ball more effectively, the LB's started to play more forward aggressive. When that happened we started to hit Vernon matched up against either a S or a LB on some crossing/wheel routes. Then, they went to more of a zone coverage, which is when we started to hit Crabtree in the zones more. When playing man, ATL likes to play off coverage with the corners. There were 3 times last year when Kaep saw this and pulled the ball up on a running play and threw it to Crabtree(you could see by the O-line and RB's it was clearly a running play called) I see ATL this year trying to play more press zone at the beginning of the game. Look for us to try and hit Crab's on some crossing patterns in the game as well as some designed plays to get Boldin the ball in space with some blockers against the zone. DeCoud is quicker than fast and not a great tackler so I see him as the guy they try and get Boldin the ball against in open space.

Overall, I see us winning this game. We're probably not going to have a point total to reflect how well we'll dominate this game. We're going to win the TOP by a wide margin and probably put up 24-27 points. I don't see our defense giving up more than 13 points against them.

That's how I see us attacking them on defense. Prob

How many games did you watch? Seems like you watched a lot, Thanks for your analysis.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
I wonder--sometimes, when you are teaching someone a new set of skills, the student regresses in the instinctive aspects of the job. Seems CK may be trying to see progressions in a certain way that is new to him and it causes him to miss some pretty obvious opportunities. Not a rare thing in any learning environment and learning the NFL QB position would be pretty daunting! You never know how long it will take for that student to master the nuances and become fluid...a year, a day...

Could that explain your AR theory NC? They're telling him to look at the obvious guy first and foremost and if he's comfortable go to the next and the next?

It could...starts with offensive philosophy and play design, play calling, CK development and coaching are a tight marriage...which is why I try to look at the whole play each time.

In this case I don't think we even run a progression read passing attack like a true or modern-day WCO (high-to-low progressions). That's pretty obvious to date. And the PS passing plays we run? I'm not sure there is a primary, secondary, etc. progression built in there as well; Spread typically is left-to-right ot vice versa but the onus in both cases relies heaviliy on the QB to find the best option. It appears to me that even when we run a PS play, CK's head angle and body language is to sit back in shot gun and quickly hit the best option under the standard 3 second mark. Why is this significant? B/c you have a QB who isn't even "looking" to a second read the mass mass majority of the time (if at all); it's typically AR1 and then ad lib (which we're getting MUCH better at BTW).

The other thing that I can't ignore is coaching in all of this. This is what you highlighted. This is why I couldn't rule out that Crabtree "miss" as an AR1 design. When you have a WR waving his hands and running across your sightlight, or you're literally, starring him down (Baldwin) and there isn't a defender within 10 yards of him and you don't pull the trigger (stay with the AR1 or original design despite double coverage) and/or decide to run instead, THAT may be coaching and NOT a vision-thing. CK may just be towing the company line here (I'd hate to believe this but it fits the coaching M.O. and philosophy well) and perhaps, he's had had the team concept of "execution" so ingrained in his mind, he can't even SEE anything else until that internal 3+ clock has ticked off and he is coached to be off and running (ad lib). Another clue to this coaching idea, is the instincts you highlighted as well. What happens when that 3 second clock expires? Have you ever noticed CK is often times, looking to scramble right, right INTO pressure instead of staying in a quiet, well-blocked pocket? This may be an indication of coaching as well. If this was a WCO or Spread with progressions built into the passing game, he'd be required to stay in that pocket as long as possible hoping that the secondary progressions would be opening up. But he's not. Yet his "instincts" have been great outside the pocket in ad lib mode lately so...?

Once thing we've learned about Roman is he is all about installations...for a while there he'd add another layer each week. Since Crabtree has been back, I have seen a few more PS plays being added and this is a good sign b/c that puts more onus (and trust) in CK to find the best option (many have been incompletions to Manningham IIRC though). Perhaps once he becomes more successful, the next layer of installations (once the coaching staff can trust CK) WILL be a small installation package with TRUE progression reads built in.

But we don't want paralysis by analysis so I expect our game plan to be stocked with AR1's by design and more and more PS plays added in the interim.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by ace52:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Didn't know that. And I'm assuming that benefits us right? Not having to move our corners around?

Originally posted by pelos21:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by ace52:

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.

Didn't know that. And I'm assuming that benefits us right? Not having to move our corners around?

It goes back to a disguise thing. When a team puts their best corner on the other team's best receiver, it means they're in man coverage. If they were in zone it doesn't make any sense because that receiver can just get run out of their zone. So, if we consistently put Rogers(for example) against the other team's #1 receiver in man coverage, it makes it much easier on the QB to determine when we're in man coverage. By not doing that, it helps Fangio keep his disguise look. I covered i the seahawks analysis thread about why we play our corners in off coverage so often. It's all about disguise. It allows us to run virtually every defense we want to from that look. Same thing with the left and right corner.

Originally posted by jonnydel:



From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

I think it also makes sense to run right at their best pass rusher, Umenyiora. This will wear him down, and will slow down his pass rushing as the game goes on.