Wide receivers ARE getting open!

Originally posted by eonblue:

Originally posted by aTx49er:
Ok I get what your saying but I still don't think it's schemed into the offense. True every passing play has a primary receiver but that doesn't mean the QB has to stay with that receiver. Why even scan the pre-snap defensive lineup for mismatches if your throw is predetermined. The fact that Kap 90%(or whatever) of the time throws to his primary receiver just shows that he's still young and learning the game.

I've seen many plays where Kap was looking at bolding to the right/or left and another receiver on the other side of the field get open and looks back at the QB waiting for the pass that never comes. Same with the RBs coming out of the backfield. Looking back ready to catch a pass. Why would they do this if not because they know they are a receiving option on the play?

I've tried pointing this out. It feels like a lost cause.

I know we've all seen KW and Baldwin wide open at point this season. The idea that Kaep is supposed to ignore wide open WR's because he has a main read is just ridiculous. If that is the case then you can't blame the WR's for not getting open because the ball was never coming their way in the first place.

I know Kaep is smart enough to recognize the man coverage Baldwin and KW get. It's so frustrating. He should be utilizing these match ups.

If you give Manning or Brady man he's going to call a quick slant and hit that receivers every time. They let their guy make a play. Brady just doesn't give up either because he has seen more drops then we could possibly imagine yet he still keeps feeding Dodson and Thompkins. He knows how to get his guys going.

Credit to Kaep he actually realized Matheu was going to blitz and the safety was going to drop down on KW. He called a quick slant and KW got the 7 yards for a 3rd completion that continued are 9 min drive.

If you watch Kaeps biggest run of the Cards game you'll notice Baldwin is partially open on a shallow crossing route. He's being loosely trailed by a 5'11 CB and he's 6'4. You let your guy make a play here. Luckily Boone opened up the sweetest little gap for Kaep to run through and Kaep did what he does best. If that gap wasn't their I doubt he would've hit Baldwin because he was looking at Boldin who swallowed in zone coverage.

Baldwin and KW are out there for a reason. They're not just cogs to get Boldin and Davis open. I realize they're not always getting open but I think it's also important to accept Kaep is missing reads.

Maybe it's just going to take some time for him to get used to the offense. Things started out pretty shaky. He looked a little more encouraging against the Cards. At least he hit everyone at least once.

They ARE open and that is the point of this thread. That Baldwin route...he was WIDE open and basically, uncovered by NFL-standards. I pointed this play out specifically in the Cards game - the 21 passing attempt post analysis. You are spot on. And in that case Baldwin looked like the annointed receiver too...schemed open (and he was), CK starred him down the entire time and still didn't hit him...instead, ran for 17 on 2nd and 18. THAT right there is trust. CK has some issues which have been highlighted in here a ton (poor mechanics at times, jumpy, inconsistent, poor touch passes, inaccurate, hesitations, locking on receivers (duh), poor ball security, not pulling the trigger at times, confiidence, etc.). But you're confusing these surface-level issues with what's fundamentally wrong with the entire offense. One could say the passing game is a QB-friendly part of our offense b/c the plays are pre-determined, one-read and if it's not there, scramble, run and keep your eyes down field just in case but only throw high percentage passes. Simple. That said, if that annointed receiver is covered, DC's are spying CK now with a DB or LB and making it harder to run (plus he's hurt a bit and hes clearly being coached to run more cautiously this year), so now where does he go with the ball? Another poster pointed out our perpetual sprint-right pass play that shrinks the field to 1/3. If Miller or Boldin or Crabtree are covered though?

Originally posted by NeonNiner:

Originally posted by aTx49er:
Ok I get what your saying but I still don't think it's schemed into the offense. True every passing play has a primary receiver but that doesn't mean the QB has to stay with that receiver. Why even scan the pre-snap defensive lineup for mismatches if your throw is predetermined. The fact that Kap 90%(or whatever) of the time throws to his primary receiver just shows that he's still young and learning the game.

I've seen many plays where Kap was looking at bolding to the right/or left and another receiver on the other side of the field get open and looks back at the QB waiting for the pass that never comes. Same with the RBs coming out of the backfield. Looking back ready to catch a pass. Why would they do this if not because they know they are a receiving option on the play?

Even Kap admitted that he needs to start trusting his receivers more. That tells me that the issue is the lack of chemistry/trust between Kap and receivers not named VD and Boldin more than anything. I highly doubt Roman and the QB guru himself, Harbs, is encouraging Kap to miss reads and strictly focus on one or two targets. It's a bad habit for any QB to get into. I'm sure with more experience, maturity, and polishing, Kap will eventually grow out of this and begin to spread the ball around a bit more, feed his other receivers, and let them make plays.

It's not just CK...it's HaRoMan. THEY are the ones dialing up Boldin and VD on just about every passing play; pre-determined, one-read. Aside from one or two other play calls a game, Williams, Baldwin, Kilgore, McDonald, Moore, etc., like Moss ALL of last year (until Manningham got hurt), re mere decoys by design to get the players our coaches trust the most, the ones with the best matchup potential, the ball. Given that almost all of these passes are under 3 seconds too also suggest this perception and evidenced by the wide gap of Boldin/VD targets compared to all the other receivers collectively. If this was a progression-read offense, numbers, by now, would start to even out some for all receivers. There should be no big trust issues at this juncture...coaches should have a good idea on the strengths and weakness of each player by now and CK "should" have plenty of chemistry with all of them. Last year it was Crabtree, VD and Gore. This year it's Boldin, VD and Gore. Will a second WR, TE or RB ever become an "equal threat" in this offense? I'm guessing not...it's up to the coaches to dial these plays up. My best guess would be that if Crabtree came back healthy, the coaches will start dialing him up more and Boldin will become less and less utilized. That said, I'd HOPE they'd use both equally as a threat...use much more Hunter in the running and passing game and start to incorporate McDonald into the passing game a ton more. But we'll see...

Originally posted by zugschef:

Originally posted by NCommand:
It is what it is and we can talk about all the surface level stuff until we're blue in the face but how much more evidence do we need?

What I'm trying to say is that the Niners' Playbook isn't full of one-read plays, but right now they need to call the plays that are, because nobody will make the same mistake as the Packers did in week one.

Until the Niners can prove that they can beat man-coverage consistently defenses will play man-coverage. Since the receivers just can't do that Roman calls a lot of plays in which most routes, if not all but one route, are just decoys in order to get one guy open. It's as simple as that.

Teams basically take away the middle of the field and concentrate on Boldin outside. As long as the pass rush is consistent this works perfectly since Davis can't get open downfield fast enough. If Kaepernick has enough time Davis does get open and that's when the big plays happen. Without a third receiving threat the Niners will keep on being inconsistent on offense against competent defenses. Or maybe the oline finally starts playing like the best unit in football, because on the plays they're looking like that Kaepernick delivers almost every time.

***
And btw, Gore is a much better pass blocker than Miller. Also, Gore is covered on every single play he is not back blocking. Defenses know that he is one of only three guys who can do damage. Miller on the other hand is often left alone. That's why the checkdown goes to him.

Now you are getting to the heart of my initial question to all of you. Just using that small samle size (b/c it was a team we all knew we'd utilize the pass more against) against the Cards, 100% of the passes were pre-determined, one-read options. And it worked even with the Cards clearly knowing this going in. This means the annointed receiver beat his man (or press) and the cast around him did their jobs to perfection. Is this the "execution" the coaches are talking about...about everyone doing their part? One breakdown in the link and the chain falls apart?

So I'll pose the question again. Who know's Bo's offense? Does anyone in here have film, video proof, better college experts, of the full playbook clicking on all cylinders? ARE there more layers to this playbook and have we just installed the basic foundation...centrally, it's a creative ground game that uses the passing game (pre-determined, one-read) as a compliment. So we're in year 3 (really 1 under CK) in the intallation process, right? The WCO takes a mimimum of 3 years to install. Is this offense the same...and eventually, we'll see more I-formations, CK under center, 3, 5 and 7-step drop timing passes, more screens, utilization of the RB's in the passing game, at least one post route a game, more crossing routes, new waves of receiver route-trees with multiple receiving options on each passing attempt, hot reads, checks/audibles at the LOS pre-snap, swing passes, etc.

Or is this it?

I don't have time today to say much in this thread except that I agree with NC's main point: much of this passing offense is either one-read, or CK just does not have the experience and or confidence to look to another receiver. Reality is that much of the time, there is only 1 WR and 2 TEs which leaves only one legitimate option. Other times, there are single WRs on each side but CK usually only looks at Boldin. In either case, the look is the same.

This is where I take great exception to the idea that Jim Harbaugh is some great Quarterback Whisperer. If he were so great, Kaepernick would not be left with so few options on passing plays. If JH were The Great Whisperer, he would always give CK a quick, safe option in the case of a blitz. However, the normal response is that Harbaugh appears to leave it up to Kaepernick to use his legs to escape the blitz rather than a safe alternate receiver. While that may work occasionally, it does nothing to help CK develop the skill to go through a normal progression. Does Harbaugh expect that just having MM and Crabtree back Kaepernick will suddenly have the skills to go through progressions?

I hope the answer to that would be "yes," but that is not the way it works. As we have said in numerous threads, Jon Baldwin was a FAR more effective receiver the last two years in KC with FAR WORSE QB play yet he caught 41 passes for decent yardage and TD production. The only answer to the difference is that HaRo CHOOSE to waste him as a blocker/decoy than to use him to diversify the offense and help the QB develop reading skills. This passing malaise is largely by choice, not purely the result of injuries to receivers.

Last night in Seattle we saw Wilson running around, extending plays and hitting guys that are far from the second coming of Jerry Rice, yet Wilson was able to find them because HE HAS BEEN COACHED TO DO SO. In Kaepernick's case, he has been coached to run. I want the current Russell Wilson model, not the Greg Roman/Jim Harbaugh model.

I want what we got and I want us to rub the ball and win. The rest will work out fine

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

I want what we got and I want us to rub the ball and win. The rest will work out fine

My mom told me that too much rubbing will make you go blind.

The problem is that Smith was never able to do more than that, and Kaepernick is a young quarterback going through some growing pains right now. That's why the offense is/was dumbed down. What you are seeing is basically the Alex Smith offense with a bit more of vertical plays. As long as Kaepernick isn't showing enough consistency and as long as Roman and Harbaugh have to field receivers whom they don't trust this won't change.

My guess is that you'll see something more of a pro-style WCO after the bye, maybe even not until Crabtree is back on the field which means basically playoffs.

Remember last season's playoffs? The offense showed plays the had never run before in the whole season. They are holding stuff back on purpose again. As long as they can win with this type of offense they'll take it.

Against Seattle the team has been in the game for almost three quarters and against the Colts they lost it in the fourth. Forget this media b******t about "outscored by a mile" in these two games. Especially the Colts game was awfully close until the point where Roman lost his marbles and called plays like a beheaded chicken.

Harbaugh and Roman aren't stupid. They know what they are doing. Where they sometimes fail (horribly) is in the heat of the game. That's why Roman looks great at times and atrocious in other instances. Same with Harbaugh. When he gets too emotional and the game is close he starts making mistakes, too. But they do know that the best offenses don't work like that which is exactly the reason why they're not doing it like them. They know that their personnel isn't gifted enough to execute an offense in the mold of the Packers, Broncos or Saints.

Originally posted by zugschef:
The problem is that Smith was never able to do more than that, and Kaepernick is a young quarterback going through some growing pains right now. That's why the offense is/was dumbed down. What you are seeing is basically the Alex Smith offense with a bit more of vertical plays. As long as Kaepernick isn't showing enough consistency and as long as Roman and Harbaugh have to field receivers whom they don't trust this won't change.

My guess is that you'll see something more of a pro-style WCO after the bye, maybe even not until Crabtree is back on the field which means basically playoffs.

Remember last season's playoffs? The offense showed plays the had never run before in the whole season. They are holding stuff back on purpose again. As long as they can win with this type of offense they'll take it.

Against Seattle the team has been in the game for almost three quarters and against the Colts they lost it in the fourth. Forget this media b******t about "outscored by a mile" in these two games. Especially the Colts game was awfully close until the point where Roman lost his marbles and called plays like a beheaded chicken.

Harbaugh and Roman aren't stupid. They know what they are doing. Where they sometimes fail (horribly) is in the heat of the game. That's why Roman looks great at times and atrocious in other instances. Same with Harbaugh. When he gets too emotional and the game is close he starts making mistakes, too. But they do know that the best offenses don't work like that which is exactly the reason why they're not doing it like them. They know that their personnel isn't gifted enough to execute an offense in the mold of the Packers, Broncos or Saints.

At times I wonder if the reason Harbaugh has taken out the short passing game is BECAUSE Alex Smith was so good at it. Harbaugh chose CK because of his big arm and downfield POTENTIAL. Now to go back to the Smith game when Kaepernick is struggling is tantamount to admitting he made a mistake by putting Kaepernick in the fire before he was ready.

I don't expect anything close to a WCO from Harbaugh ever. He has never run anything very close to it here, or even at Stanford. He is a power running guy who passes when he must to keep the defense honest. At Stanford he was fortunate to have come into a prestigious school that had finally decided to spend some serious money on their football program, hence he was able to recruit the 2nd highest rated HS QB in the nation...and the rest was history. Then Harbaugh took over a 49er roster that should have won 10+ games the year before he took over. Again, Harbaugh had a very efficient, winning QB and the team came within a fumble of the SB.

It seems obvious to anyone with eyes that Kaepernick has a higher ceiling than Alex Smith but he must be given the coaching and opportunity to develop that will allow him to reach that ceiling. So far this season, the learning curve looks longer than I had hoped...and I believe HaRo's approach has actually hindered, not helped that development.

Time to dump the college offense and actually use a WCO, if JH knows how.

What the hell is wrong with Baldwin now? I see he's listed as questionable with an illness. These injuries are going to give me high blood pressure! If he doesn't play we might as well just run 13 personnel all game. Kyle Williams offers nothing and is sure to see press coverage off the first snap and tossed to the ground shortly thereafter. I have as much confidence in Celek and McDonald as I do Williams.

Originally posted by NinerG94:
What the hell is wrong with Baldwin now? I see he's listed as questionable with an illness. These injuries are going to give me high blood pressure! If he doesn't play we might as well just run 13 personnel all game. Kyle Williams offers nothing and is sure to see press coverage off the first snap and tossed to the ground shortly thereafter. I have as much confidence in Celek and McDonald as I do Williams.

I heard it was the flu.

Originally posted by NinerG94:
What the hell is wrong with Baldwin now? I see he's listed as questionable with an illness. These injuries are going to give me high blood pressure! If he doesn't play we might as well just run 13 personnel all game. Kyle Williams offers nothing and is sure to see press coverage off the first snap and tossed to the ground shortly thereafter. I have as much confidence in Celek and McDonald as I do Williams.

I hear you brother...we're just getting 'em all out of the way now? Ha.

But with Baldwin, does it really matter? The "#2" will be lucky to get a single scrap thrown his way by combination of design/CK issues. So, just plop in Williams, Kilgore, Celek, McDonald, Patton on crutches, Patrick Willis or even Joe Looney. It's HaRoman's way of saying "Eff you...not only am I going to beat you without anyone of skill at the #2 but I'm going to mock you while I do it!"

Truth though, Baldwin is much more effective in his "role" than Williams. A big strong body out there on the edges is big for both our decoy passing game AND esp. run game off tackle.

Originally posted by NinerG94:
What the hell is wrong with Baldwin now? I see he's listed as questionable with an illness. These injuries are going to give me high blood pressure! If he doesn't play we might as well just run 13 personnel all game. Kyle Williams offers nothing and is sure to see press coverage off the first snap and tossed to the ground shortly thereafter. I have as much confidence in Celek and McDonald as I do Williams.

I have much more confidence in McDonald than anyone not named Davis or Boldin. He has been getting open and everytime he has the ball he gets those tough yards after the catch. The coaching staff needs to go watch the 2011 and 2012 Patriots Offense, there is no reason we cant have our two TE's be the top weapons on the team, and that will help take some double coverages away from Boldin.

Originally posted by dj43:

At times I wonder if the reason Harbaugh has taken out the short passing game is BECAUSE Alex Smith was so good at it. Harbaugh chose CK because of his big arm and downfield POTENTIAL. Now to go back to the Smith game when Kaepernick is struggling is tantamount to admitting he made a mistake by putting Kaepernick in the fire before he was ready.

I don't expect anything close to a WCO from Harbaugh ever. He has never run anything very close to it here, or even at Stanford. He is a power running guy who passes when he must to keep the defense honest. At Stanford he was fortunate to have come into a prestigious school that had finally decided to spend some serious money on their football program, hence he was able to recruit the 2nd highest rated HS QB in the nation...and the rest was history. Then Harbaugh took over a 49er roster that should have won 10+ games the year before he took over. Again, Harbaugh had a very efficient, winning QB and the team came within a fumble of the SB.

It seems obvious to anyone with eyes that Kaepernick has a higher ceiling than Alex Smith but he must be given the coaching and opportunity to develop that will allow him to reach that ceiling. So far this season, the learning curve looks longer than I had hoped...and I believe HaRo's approach has actually hindered, not helped that development.

Time to dump the college offense and actually use a WCO, if JH knows how.

I agree. Harbaugh and Roman waste receivers talents by only using them as decoys. They have receiving options, they just refuse to use them that way. McDonald was primarily a pass catcher while at Rice, but he's only caught a few passes this year. It's sad that Baldwin produced more in KC with horrible qb play than he does here. Maybe I'm crazy for saying this, but I think Harbaugh and Roman just don't like to pass the ball. If they didn't have to I believe they would line up every down and run the football. We just need a better scheme for our passing attack; and maybe a different coordinator who is more open to a spread offense that utilizes 3 and 4 receiver sets. When was the last time we actually had 4 WIDE RECEIVER set out on the field?

Originally posted by zugschef:
What I'm trying to say is that the Niners' Playbook isn't full of one-read plays, but right now they need to call the plays that are, because nobody will make the same mistake as the Packers did in week one.

Until the Niners can prove that they can beat man-coverage consistently defenses will play man-coverage. Since the receivers just can't do that Roman calls a lot of plays in which most routes, if not all but one route, are just decoys in order to get one guy open. It's as simple as that.

Teams basically take away the middle of the field and concentrate on Boldin outside. As long as the pass rush is consistent this works perfectly since Davis can't get open downfield fast enough. If Kaepernick has enough time Davis does get open and that's when the big plays happen. Without a third receiving threat the Niners will keep on being inconsistent on offense against competent defenses. Or maybe the oline finally starts playing like the best unit in football, because on the plays they're looking like that Kaepernick delivers almost every time.

***
And btw, Gore is a much better pass blocker than Miller. Also, Gore is covered on every single play he is not back blocking. Defenses know that he is one of only three guys who can do damage. Miller on the other hand is often left alone. That's why the checkdown goes to him.

Well worded, zugschef. Roman knows for a fact that teams are playing man on the outside. If that's the case, use it against them. Run clearing routes (decoy routes) that will clear the area of the field you plan on attacking. If this is true, we should see less of these plays being called once/if opposing teams begin to mix in zone coverage in the secondary.

Originally posted by zugschef:
The problem is that Smith was never able to do more than that, and Kaepernick is a young quarterback going through some growing pains right now. That's why the offense is/was dumbed down. What you are seeing is basically the Alex Smith offense with a bit more of vertical plays. As long as Kaepernick isn't showing enough consistency and as long as Roman and Harbaugh have to field receivers whom they don't trust this won't change.

My guess is that you'll see something more of a pro-style WCO after the bye, maybe even not until Crabtree is back on the field which means basically playoffs.

Remember last season's playoffs? The offense showed plays the had never run before in the whole season. They are holding stuff back on purpose again. As long as they can win with this type of offense they'll take it.

Against Seattle the team has been in the game for almost three quarters and against the Colts they lost it in the fourth. Forget this media b******t about "outscored by a mile" in these two games. Especially the Colts game was awfully close until the point where Roman lost his marbles and called plays like a beheaded chicken.

Harbaugh and Roman aren't stupid. They know what they are doing. Where they sometimes fail (horribly) is in the heat of the game. That's why Roman looks great at times and atrocious in other instances. Same with Harbaugh. When he gets too emotional and the game is close he starts making mistakes, too. But they do know that the best offenses don't work like that which is exactly the reason why they're not doing it like them. They know that their personnel isn't gifted enough to execute an offense in the mold of the Packers, Broncos or Saints.

Regarding the bolded. I think it's a huge gamble to move towards a WCO at that stage in the season, and at this stage in Kap's career. Are we willing to put up with a young QB's struggles as he tries to grasp WCO fundamentals during a championship run? WCO would be totally different from anything Kap has had to do in college and in his short NFL career. I do not want Harbaugh to put the season in danger because he wants to install a new offense. I understand you may not be talking in absolute terms, meaning you are not implying "let's go full throttle with the WCO". Do we know if HaRo even has experience in a WCO and is capable of teaching it?

I'm glad you brought up the underlined point, above. There are two ways a coaching staff can approach things as it comes to the playbook. Do they unleash 100% of the playbook in week 1 and give the NFL a lot to think about when it comes to game planning against the 49ers? Or do they reveal about 75% (hypothetical numbers), then reveal another 5% every week as the season progresses, to catch teams off guard with new looks. Of course, all the while thinking of new wrinkles. I'm sure every coach has their own take on this.

You alluded to last season and it fully supports your claim that this coaching staff does hide parts of their playbook. The pistol was seen here and there in weeks 11-17. Then when the playoffs rolled around, it was predominantly a pistol offense. Surprise, NFL! So I wonder what changes are in store for this year. I seriously doubt we see anything that resembles a WCO this season. Of course, this is all just speculation on my part. I just see a lot that may go wrong and the stakes are very high with this team.