Bad at Scouting/Evaluating WR's?

Interested statistical analysis of the difficulty in evaluating wide receivers:
http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/Amrit_Dhar.pdf


The author also notes, "players that do extraordinarily well in their final season while having generally average
college careers, get overrated in the draft rankings and end up being poor receivers in the
NFL."

which sounds a lot like Jenkins, who did not do much his first 3 years but did exceptionally well in his senior year.

The author also says, "I am also unable to quantify the character and motivation of a receiver; wide receivers that perform very well in college may shirk in the NFL and begin
to perform poorly if they develop a bad work ethic"

which also sounds like Jenkins.

I like to think of myself as a pretty objective fan. I try not to get emotionally invested in specific players (except Gore) and faith in the front office as much as the next guy. But the amount of sheer praise and biased trust in Baalke and our scouting department is ridiculous. Yes, our 2011 draft class is historically awesome. But the 2012 draft is one of, if not THE, worst draft we've ever had.

1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois- no explanation needed

2 61 LaMichael James RB Oregon- looking like a solid contributor

4 117 Joe Looney C/G Wake Fores- tbd

5 165 Darius Fleming OLB Notre Dame- cant stay healthy, very low chance of making team next year

6 180 Trent Robinson SS Michigan State- will probably be cut soon

6 199 Jason Slowey T Western Oregon- who?

7 237 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- MIGHT be a ST contributer



All I'm saying is, don't think for one second Baalke is the best talent evaluator or even near the top of the league. I do however have confidence that he will learn from his mistakes


PS can the season just get here already??

Originally posted by spizzy:
I like to think of myself as a pretty objective fan. I try not to get emotionally invested in specific players (except Gore) and faith in the front office as much as the next guy. But the amount of sheer praise and biased trust in Baalke and our scouting department is ridiculous. Yes, our 2011 draft class is historically awesome. But the 2012 draft is one of, if not THE, worst draft we've ever had.

1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois- no explanation needed

2 61 LaMichael James RB Oregon- looking like a solid contributor

4 117 Joe Looney C/G Wake Fores- tbd

5 165 Darius Fleming OLB Notre Dame- cant stay healthy, very low chance of making team next year

6 180 Trent Robinson SS Michigan State- will probably be cut soon

6 199 Jason Slowey T Western Oregon- who?

7 237 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- MIGHT be a ST contributer



All I'm saying is, don't think for one second Baalke is the best talent evaluator or even near the top of the league. I do however have confidence that he will learn from his mistakes


PS can the season just get here already??

Haha. As bad as this draft was (and it was real bad) he is still not overrated. He knocked it out of the park in 2011 and I think he got cocky during the 2012 draft. I think the 2013 draft looks like it has some good pieces. I would take 2012 as the exception and not the trend, although I agree it is awful.

Meh. What about our 2013 Draft Class? Obviously it's yet to be determined, but so far it looks like he's back making good picks. I think he's far from overrated in terms of scouting.

True the only pick I liked from 2012 was LMJ

Originally posted by mattster03:
Meh. What about our 2013 Draft Class? Obviously it's yet to be determined, but so far it looks like he's back making good picks. I think he's far from overrated in terms of scouting.

Its TBD but McDonald looks like a good pick as well as Lemonier. I didn't like that he took so many injured players though but we will see

I dont' think we have to swing for the fences on every pick. Just keep getting on base and we'll be fine

Originally posted by TexasNiner915:
True the only pick I liked from 2012 was LMJ

the only one who ever did anything for us

He's not perfect BUT he's damn good and MUCH better than what came before him.

Mistakes are inevitable it's how you handle the mistakes that counts.

IMO, he's not batting 1000 BUT neither is anyone else.

We're very fortunate to have him and the scouting department.

Wow, f*cking chicken little thread if I've ever seen one. No one hits on draft picks everytime, it's not Baalkes fault Fleming can't stay healthy, Johnson is looking like a solid contributor but will probably get cut cause of the rookie stud Lemonier, Looney has looked alright not great but alright considering he has Omgmameh next to him. LMJ is a solid role player. Slowey? Really? Lets harp on 6th and 7th round picks lol!

Baalke has hit more than missed, and even when he misses he still gets something like a pick for Mays or Baldwin for AJ. What else could a fan want? No one hits on every pick even Ozzie newsome misses allot and he is considered the best in the league at scouting. Get over it and enjoy this years class cause it will shut up all the haters for yets to come.

The 2012 Draft Class did not have depth, so unless you picked in the first 15-20 picks, there weren't a whole lot of gems out there. Baalke was smart enough to trade away a lot of picks in the 2012 draft to get more in the very deep 2013 draft. It's too early to tell, but it looks like that was a shrewd move.

Originally posted by 5280High:
Wow, f*cking chicken little thread if I've ever seen one. No one hits on draft picks everytime, it's not Baalkes fault Fleming can't stay healthy, Johnson is looking like a solid contributor but will probably get cut cause of the rookie stud Lemonier, Looney has looked alright not great but alright considering he has Omgmameh next to him. LMJ is a solid role player. Slowey? Really? Lets harp on 6th and 7th round picks lol!

Baalke has hit more than missed, and even when he misses he still gets something like a pick for Mays or Baldwin for AJ. What else could a fan want? No one hits on every pick even Ozzie newsome misses allot and he is considered the best in the league at scouting. Get over it and enjoy this years class cause it will shut up all the haters for yets to come.

Take a chill pill. I'm simply saying that he's not as great as everyone makes him out to be, which is the best GM in football in terms of talent evaluation. He has hit more than he's missed but I was pointing out that the 2012 draft in its entirety is a hard failure, which is pretty rare. AJ is arguably the biggest bust we've ever had which is pretty impressive.

Originally posted by spizzy:
I like to think of myself as a pretty objective fan. I try not to get emotionally invested in specific players (except Gore) and faith in the front office as much as the next guy. But the amount of sheer praise and biased trust in Baalke and our scouting department is ridiculous. Yes, our 2011 draft class is historically awesome. But the 2012 draft is one of, if not THE, worst draft we've ever had.

1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois- no explanation needed

2 61 LaMichael James RB Oregon- looking like a solid contributor

4 117 Joe Looney C/G Wake Fores- tbd

5 165 Darius Fleming OLB Notre Dame- cant stay healthy, very low chance of making team next year

6 180 Trent Robinson SS Michigan State- will probably be cut soon

6 199 Jason Slowey T Western Oregon- who?

7 237 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- MIGHT be a ST contributer



All I'm saying is, don't think for one second Baalke is the best talent evaluator or even near the top of the league. I do however have confidence that he will learn from his mistakes


PS can the season just get here already??

I stopped reading at Fleming, cause he is no longer on the team. Can't take your opinion seriously when you don't even know the facts. Nice try.

Originally posted by JR80Forever:
I stopped reading at Fleming, cause he is no longer on the team. Can't take your opinion seriously when you don't even know the facts. Nice try.

He's on IR

Originally posted by spizzy:

Originally posted by JR80Forever:
I stopped reading at Fleming, cause he is no longer on the team. Can't take your opinion seriously when you don't even know the facts. Nice try.

He's on IR

They waived him.