Does anyone still believe that we will win the SB this season?

On of the scariest part of the playoffs to me is coming back after getting down. Have we won any game all year in which we were losing by more than 7 points? I dont think we have.

Originally posted by UKNiners:

Originally posted by crabman82:
with gb and nyg's sb runs its become en vogue to just get in and see what happens. i dont agree with it, to me its the exception and not the rule. you cannot depend on having to win multiple road playoff games to win the super bowl.

Good point. But CK is not AR or Eli. This is where experience outweighs a stronger arm, running ability, hype and potential. This one is on Harbaugh - don't see it working out this this year and am very skeptical long-term.

I hold the view that a team has a 3-year or 4-year max SB window. You miss that twice and pretty much you're close to time to rebuild/retool as either the defense (in the case of the 49ers) or the offense (the Packers and the 49ers with Frank Gore) gets older, and can no longer dominate like before. It's extremely rare for a team to manage to dominate for more than a decade like the 49ers, but much of the credits belonged to Bill Walsh and John McVay who had a number of amazing drafts to keep both the offense and the defense dominant (with help of DeBartolo's checkbook of course.) If the 49ers get booted early this playoffs, things can be tough in 2014.

Originally posted by Jtninerfan210:

sdaddy101269, I agree with the offense portion of your post. Is that because we have suddenly become a strictly read option team, or because the coaches aren't throwing too much at Kaep? Based on the poor use of time outs recently it's hard to imagine that Kaep has a full grasp of the offense. Shoot who said that it usually takes about 2-3 years to fully understand the playbook, and suddenly we're to believe that the QB switch at midseason was the best thing to do. I can't see that one dimensional scheme working in the post season.

It seems to me as though Roman has gotten cute with the offense. Before Hunter and Williams got hurt we were rolling. If you recall Kaep ran the offense great against the the Bears and Saints, he audibled to different plays and was really comfortable in the offense. I think he's better with traditional play action passing the problem is we don't commit to the run like we used to. He can handle the offense just fine but it seems like Roman can't handle Kaep. I would like to see more two-back, split sets. I think that would cause a defense SO many issues with LMJ or Gore catching passes out of the backfield it would also slow down the pass rush. Vernon Davis with more curl routes would be great too. I will say this, our playccalling in the playoffs last year was much more creative than it was during the season which makes me think Harbaugh has something up his sleeve.

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:

Originally posted by Jtninerfan210:
sdaddy101269, I agree with the offense portion of your post. Is that because we have suddenly become a strictly read option team, or because the coaches aren't throwing too much at Kaep? Based on the poor use of time outs recently it's hard to imagine that Kaep has a full grasp of the offense. Shoot who said that it usually takes about 2-3 years to fully understand the playbook, and suddenly we're to believe that the QB switch at midseason was the best thing to do. I can't see that one dimensional scheme working in the post season.

It seems to me as though Roman has gotten cute with the offense. Before Hunter and Williams got hurt we were rolling. If you recall Kaep ran the offense great against the the Bears and Saints, he audibled to different plays and was really comfortable in the offense. I think he's better with traditional play action passing the problem is we don't commit to the run like we used to. He can handle the offense just fine but it seems like Roman can't handle Kaep. I would like to see more two-back, split sets. I think that would cause a defense SO many issues with LMJ or Gore catching passes out of the backfield it would also slow down the pass rush. Vernon Davis with more curl routes would be great too. I will say this, our playccalling in the playoffs last year was much more creative than it was during the season which makes me think Harbaugh benched has something up his sleeve.

I agree. He couldn't unleash everything in the playbook. Gotta save some stuff for the playoffs. The LMJ with Gore in the backfield would make some defenses nuts. Won't even doubt there will be a play or two that involves jenkins now that he will be playing. Against AZ you can keep it simple, then get more creative in the playoffs.

The defense however NEEDS to play better than it has been the last couple of games. Justin Smith is clearly the engine of this defense.

Originally posted by crabman82:

with gb and nyg's sb runs its become en vogue to just get in and see what happens. i dont agree with it, to me its the exception and not the rule. you cannot depend on having to win multiple road playoff games to win the super bowl.

Mediocrity being sold as parity is the rule. There are no great teams anymore.

I don't buy this 3-4 year window thing at all. The Patriots have been contenders for longer than that. The Niners were contenders for a LOT longer than that. The Packers have been contenders now for a few years and will continue to be. I also don't even begin to understand why people think you have to be a high seed. How many of the last five winners were high seeds? One? Two?

Originally posted by GNielsen:
I don't buy this 3-4 year window thing at all. The Patriots have been contenders for longer than that. The Niners were contenders for a LOT longer than that. The Packers have been contenders now for a few years and will continue to be. I also don't even begin to understand why people think you have to be a high seed. How many of the last five winners were high seeds? One? Two?

The Patriots and Packers are more so the exception to the rule. Realistically you have a 3-5 year window depending on your drafts. It's not that the window necessarily closes but you may have a down year or two to reload.

Also, mentioning what the Niners were doing 20 years ago means NOTHING in todays NFL landscape.

Originally posted by GNielsen:
I don't buy this 3-4 year window thing at all. The Patriots have been contenders for longer than that. The Niners were contenders for a LOT longer than that. The Packers have been contenders now for a few years and will continue to be. I also don't even begin to understand why people think you have to be a high seed. How many of the last five winners were high seeds? One? Two?

Like I said the Packers and Pats are more the exception.

The Rams won one SB with that "greatest show on turf." The Eagles window has now closed and they had a good 4-5 year run at it. The Bears is pretty much closed as well. The Steelers need to retool. The Jets went to 2 straight AFC Championship games, and now their window is closed. The Ravens is almost closed due to that aging defense.

For every Packers and Patriots there are several teams that had a 3-4 year window.

Originally posted by rondoman:

The Patriots and Packers are more so the exception to the rule. Realistically you have a 3-5 year window depending on your drafts. It's not that the window necessarily closes but you may have a down year or two to reload.

Also, mentioning what the Niners were doing 20 years ago means NOTHING in todays NFL landscape.

Which teams are the rule?

I never have the expectation of winning the Super Bowl.

I was pretty sure that we would have a winning season, make the playoffs, and win the division.

So far, we have done two of the above, and a good chance to win the division this weekend.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by rondoman:
The Patriots and Packers are more so the exception to the rule. Realistically you have a 3-5 year window depending on your drafts. It's not that the window necessarily closes but you may have a down year or two to reload.

Also, mentioning what the Niners were doing 20 years ago means NOTHING in todays NFL landscape.

Which teams are the rule?

See my last post. Jets. Steelers. Eagles. Bears. Ravens. Saints.

Originally posted by rondoman:

Like I said the Packers and Pats are more the exception.

The Rams won one SB with that "greatest show on turf." The Eagles window has now closed and they had a good 4-5 year run at it. The Bears is pretty much closed as well. The Steelers need to retool. The Jets went to 2 straight AFC Championship games, and now their window is closed. The Ravens is almost closed due to that aging defense.

For every Packers and Patriots there are several teams that had a 3-4 year window.

The Steelers were very good for a lot longer than 4 seasons. The Giants won their SBs four years apart and are still good. Philly posted double digit wins 8 times in 10 years. Baltimore still hasn't stopped contending...

Originally posted by rondoman:

See my last post. Jets. Steelers. Eagles. Bears. Ravens. Saints.

The Jets were never very good.
The Steelers are having an off year due to their QB being hurt and they were good for a lot more than 7 years.
The Eagles won double digit games for 8 of 11 seasons.
The Ravens have been good since Flacco came on the scene.
The Saints were devastated by Bounty-Gate.
The Bears are as good as they have ever been.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by rondoman:
Like I said the Packers and Pats are more the exception.

The Rams won one SB with that "greatest show on turf." The Eagles window has now closed and they had a good 4-5 year run at it. The Bears is pretty much closed as well. The Steelers need to retool. The Jets went to 2 straight AFC Championship games, and now their window is closed. The Ravens is almost closed due to that aging defense.

For every Packers and Patriots there are several teams that had a 3-4 year window.

The Steelers were very good for a lot longer than 4 seasons. The Giants won their SBs four years apart and are still good. Philly posted double digit wins 8 times in 10 years. Baltimore still hasn't stopped contending...

Like I said the window doesnt necessarily close, but each of these teams had a down year or two like Pittsburgh this season. Philly had a couple as well as the Giants. Baltimore is also hitting that spot right now. The key is reloading and making wise decisions to come back after an off year and compete again.

The premise is that teams generally have a 3-4 year window with most of their current players, that is all I am saying. It's just the nature of the NFL. Players get old, get hurt, and move on.

The key to staying power is great drafting and key FA pickups to fill the voids without overspending and ending up in cap hell.