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ESPN's QBR Hating against Alex Smith

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Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Let go of the past, sus.... his first few years are irrelevant now....

so your saying he's a top tier qb right now ?


First few years are irrelevant?! Too funny!

They only offer insight into the guy's personality and "instincts". You know "instincts", the quality Walsh considered most important in a QB. Alex is weak in both personality and instinct. You wait for both to develop in the first year or two. In Alex's case . . . nada.

I agree with posters: QBR means little. People have been throwing up stats (and isolated instances) to bolster their agruments and you can pretty much get them to support any argument you want. What matters is actually being able to comprehend what you are watching. Actually LOOK at how he plays the game. In context. Tony Romo has much better stats than Joe Montana. That makes him better?

I also pretty much agree with what sus says, except for one thing: Alex doesn't belong at #16. He's much lower than that IMO. After 7 years of showing what he's got, he's not going to miraculously change his stripes.

I was a big proponent of hiring Harbaugh (even when it wasn't popular) but I worry about his obsession with Alex. If he doesn't get off that, I predict that he experiences a sophmore slump of unfortunate proportions.
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Let go of the past, sus.... his first few years are irrelevant now....

so your saying he's a top tier qb right now ?


First few years are irrelevant?! Too funny!

They only offer insight into the guy's personality and "instincts". You know "instincts", the quality Walsh considered most important in a QB. Alex is weak in both personality and instinct. You wait for both to develop in the first year or two. In Alex's case . . . nada.

I agree with posters: QBR means little. People have been throwing up stats (and isolated instances) to bolster their agruments and you can pretty much get them to support any argument you want. What matters is actually being able to comprehend what you are watching. Actually LOOK at how he plays the game. In context. Tony Romo has much better stats than Joe Montana. That makes him better?

I also pretty much agree with what sus says, except for one thing: Alex doesn't belong at #16. He's much lower than that IMO. After 7 years of showing what he's got, he's not going to miraculously change his stripes.

I was a big proponent of hiring Harbaugh (even when it wasn't popular) but I worry about his obsession with Alex. If he doesn't get off that, I predict that he experiences a sophmore slump of unfortunate proportions.

LOL. I love people who predict things. The problem with trusting your (you specifically) eyes is that you might not be unbiased in your assessment. It is the same for everyone. I watched Alex last year and I saw a good QB, with almost no weapons to work with and a poor offensive line. I saw a qb that had definitely developed bad habits from years of sub-par coaching, and some of his own personality traits, but one that also has room to grow, and has been overcoming all of those issues little by little. I saw a QB who's pocket presence was much better, who DEFINITELY improvised all the time because of how bad his line was,who was clutch when it mattered the most, and who made elite throws more frequently as the season progressed.

I have no clue how it is going to be this season because NOBODY CAN KNOW. I see a QB who will most likely have a better season (better weapons in theory, more solidified line play hopefully, better mechanics, better grasp of the system) than last season. If he has a better season he is moving toward that really high level QB. I just don't get why you seem so invested in him being a failure? He already has overcome the "failure" title with his last season. Now it is time to see how much better he can get.

With any football player you need to look at his most recent performance - say 3 years - to see how good he is presently. Since Alex came back from injury he has been a good QB, and last year he got better. You are stuck in remembering very young Alex on the horrible teams, which makes no sense. Stop living in the past!
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
Originally posted by vermonator:
Who cares? QBR means nothing....

That's what I have been trying to say. Its a stat made to glorify Popular QBs.

See, I wouldn't go to that extreme either. Just take a look at Alex's QBRs here for 2011. They are all pretty fairly indicative of how well he did.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/8416/alex-smith

He goes lower than the 80's for QBR in the following games:

- Sun 10/16@DET
- Thu 11/24@BAL
- Sun 12/11@ARI
- Sat 12/24@SEA

All road games... all against pretty good defenses at that time. He had the clutch throw to Walker for the win vs Detroit. He had that deep TD bomb to Ginn vs Arizona (where Ginn inexplicably couldn't find the ball?!?!?). The Rachal/Gore poor call that took back a long Ginn TD reception, and the OL getting Alex killed (9 sacks and 12 QB hits).

All in all... these QBR ratings were pretty telling. It's not a perfect system... but it's not totally useless either.

I'm not saying the system is poor, but I think it over pennalizes QB's for sacks, even though I know there isnt a really good system to decided if 1 sack is their fault or not...
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Let go of the past, sus.... his first few years are irrelevant now....

so your saying he's a top tier qb right now ?


First few years are irrelevant?! Too funny!

They only offer insight into the guy's personality and "instincts". You know "instincts", the quality Walsh considered most important in a QB. Alex is weak in both personality and instinct. You wait for both to develop in the first year or two. In Alex's case . . . nada.

I agree with posters: QBR means little. People have been throwing up stats (and isolated instances) to bolster their agruments and you can pretty much get them to support any argument you want. What matters is actually being able to comprehend what you are watching. Actually LOOK at how he plays the game. In context. Tony Romo has much better stats than Joe Montana. That makes him better?

I also pretty much agree with what sus says, except for one thing: Alex doesn't belong at #16. He's much lower than that IMO. After 7 years of showing what he's got, he's not going to miraculously change his stripes.

I was a big proponent of hiring Harbaugh (even when it wasn't popular) but I worry about his obsession with Alex. If he doesn't get off that, I predict that he experiences a sophmore slump of unfortunate proportions.

What did last year tell you about his "instincts" and "personality"? The year before?

..and are you saying that you love Harbs but do not trust his instincts and coaching as pertains to A. Smith?
[ Edited by NineFourNiner on Jun 27, 2012 at 3:00 PM ]
  • fly15
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 5,755
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Originally posted by fly15:
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Qbr is bs he got a 20 after eagles game

it is, what it is.....
35 Td and 7 int since raye was fired

5 TD and 0 int in playoffs

more than 100 passer rating playoffs

it is what it is?

yes
one ok season will not erase six miserable yrs, but if u wanna keep blaming others, thats fine

hopefully he can continue his probowl stats this coming season
Who gives a $h!t........... He is not Montana, as long as he can produce enough to win.....who care his QB rating or what ever... He is not going to the hall give it a rest
Originally posted by fly15:
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Originally posted by fly15:
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Qbr is bs he got a 20 after eagles game

it is, what it is.....
35 Td and 7 int since raye was fired

5 TD and 0 int in playoffs

more than 100 passer rating playoffs

it is what it is?

yes
one ok season will not erase six miserable yrs, but if u wanna keep blaming others, thats fine

hopefully he can continue his probowl stats this coming season
Harbaugh is a hell of a coach...... Same Alex
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Let go of the past, sus.... his first few years are irrelevant now....

so your saying he's a top tier qb right now ?


First few years are irrelevant?! Too funny!

They only offer insight into the guy's personality and "instincts". You know "instincts", the quality Walsh considered most important in a QB. Alex is weak in both personality and instinct. You wait for both to develop in the first year or two. In Alex's case . . . nada.

I agree with posters: QBR means little. People have been throwing up stats (and isolated instances) to bolster their agruments and you can pretty much get them to support any argument you want. What matters is actually being able to comprehend what you are watching. Actually LOOK at how he plays the game. In context. Tony Romo has much better stats than Joe Montana. That makes him better?

I also pretty much agree with what sus says, except for one thing: Alex doesn't belong at #16. He's much lower than that IMO. After 7 years of showing what he's got, he's not going to miraculously change his stripes.

I was a big proponent of hiring Harbaugh (even when it wasn't popular) but I worry about his obsession with Alex. If he doesn't get off that, I predict that he experiences a sophmore slump of unfortunate proportions.

What did last year tell you about his "instincts" and "personality"? The year before?

..and are you saying that you love Harbs but do not trust his instincts and coaching as pertains to A. Smith?

Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by NinerG94:
Alex does have to improve. Sus is right. The stats don't lie but with improved help at RB and WR I expect him to build off of last season and make it even harder for people to criticize him next season. If not... lets hope someone steps up quick. As of now we don't have anyone better on the roster.

I think Smith has improved a great deal last year but I also think he is probably close hitting his ceiling right now. I dont think he can play much better than he did last year.

I thought about that, too, Sus. I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet.

I believe that this season will give us a true litmus test for him given his weapons now.

No excuses.

Time to nut up or shut up, right?

I expect Moss to be so much more than expected.

Just sayin'

BTW, ....been a long time.
  • susweel
  • Hall of Nepal
  • Posts: 120,278
Originally posted by ninertico:
I thought about that, too, Sus. I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet.

I believe that this season will give us a true litmus test for him given his weapons now.

No excuses.

Time to nut up or shut up, right?

I expect Moss to be so much more than expected.

Just sayin'

BTW, ....been a long time.

Hey whats up Tico yah I haven't seen you around here lately. Whats up with that ?

Originally posted by dtcomposer:
LOL. I love people who predict things. The problem with trusting your (you specifically) eyes is that you might not be unbiased in your assessment. It is the same for everyone. I watched Alex last year and I saw a good QB, with almost no weapons to work with and a poor offensive line. I saw a qb that had definitely developed bad habits from years of sub-par coaching, and some of his own personality traits, but one that also has room to grow, and has been overcoming all of those issues little by little. I saw a QB who's pocket presence was much better, who DEFINITELY improvised all the time because of how bad his line was,who was clutch when it mattered the most, and who made elite throws more frequently as the season progressed.

I have no clue how it is going to be this season because NOBODY CAN KNOW. I see a QB who will most likely have a better season (better weapons in theory, more solidified line play hopefully, better mechanics, better grasp of the system) than last season. If he has a better season he is moving toward that really high level QB. I just don't get why you seem so invested in him being a failure? He already has overcome the "failure" title with his last season. Now it is time to see how much better he can get.

With any football player you need to look at his most recent performance - say 3 years - to see how good he is presently. Since Alex came back from injury he has been a good QB, and last year he got better. You are stuck in remembering very young Alex on the horrible teams, which makes no sense. Stop living in the past!

Maybe you're right. But I just don't think so. That's all.

I don't think that "baised" is the word here. I have nothing invested in Smith, the person, to wish failure on him. He's in all likelihood a fine citizen,etc. But I have nothing invested in him succeeding either; unlike many posters, who seemingly are personally invested in seeing him (specifically Alex Smith) succeed. I'm indifferent; I just would like to see the 49ers with a superior QB and, on the evidence as I see it (seven years is more than enough time), it's not going to be him.

Everyone sees things through their own colored lense. You included. I don't see what you see and there's no point in arguing about it. Alex had his moments, for sure (he's always had them, even as early as his second year), but they fall in the category of "even the blind monkey hitting a bulls-eye on occasion"; not something you can rely on. You appear to belong to that group of people who are always blaming his supporting cast: When its always everyone-around-you's fault that you're not very good, something doesn't add up. Good QB's make everyone around them better; bad QB's cause them to fail. There are too many examples out there to enumerate.

You saw what you saw last year; a guy who isn't there yet but is going to get there, you hope because, of course, NOBODY CAN KNOW (it's a shame Tim Couch didn't play for the Niner's, or Akili Smith, or . . . ): I see a guy who understands the system as well as any coach, but who doesn't possess the necessary intangibles to consistently play at a high level. And, no, I did not see that change last year.

We'll see . . . seven years and counting.
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Maybe you're right. But I just don't think so. That's all.

I don't think that "baised" is the word here. I have nothing invested in Smith, the person, to wish failure on him. He's in all likelihood a fine citizen,etc. But I have nothing invested in him succeeding either; unlike many posters, who seemingly are personally invested in seeing him (specifically Alex Smith) succeed. I'm indifferent; I just would like to see the 49ers with a superior QB and, on the evidence as I see it (seven years is more than enough time), it's not going to be him.

Everyone sees things through their own colored lense. You included. I don't see what you see and there's no point in arguing about it. Alex had his moments, for sure (he's always had them, even as early as his second year), but they fall in the category of "even the blind monkey hitting a bulls-eye on occasion"; not something you can rely on. You appear to belong to that group of people who are always blaming his supporting cast: When its always everyone-around-you's fault that you're not very good, something doesn't add up. Good QB's make everyone around them better; bad QB's cause them to fail. There are too many examples out there to enumerate.

You saw what you saw last year; a guy who isn't there yet but is going to get there, you hope because, of course, NOBODY CAN KNOW (it's a shame Tim Couch didn't play for the Niner's, or Akili Smith, or . . . ): I see a guy who understands the system as well as any coach, but who doesn't possess the necessary intangibles to consistently play at a high level. And, no, I did not see that change last year.

We'll see . . . seven years and counting.

thats not fair

the coaching was clearly the problem last couple yearsif you dont have a good coach you wont wi period.

We had a coach who coudnt gameplan at all if you cant gameplan you will lose that is a fact

as for making players better. after learning the system in the past 9 games if you average out crabtrees numbers to a 16 game season he wouldve had over 1200 yards..

he was really our only Wr last season if you disclude josh morga who is a 6th round pick who was playing like our #1 WR

also brett swain had a more productive 7 games with us than in his 3 years at GB combined


as for consistancy

last 24 games he has 34 TD to only 7 int


i think thats pretty consistant


7 years and counting? first year with same offensive system though so first time he is allowed to take next step
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
First few years are irrelevant?! Too funny!

They only offer insight into the guy's personality and "instincts". You know "instincts", the quality Walsh considered most important in a QB. Alex is weak in both personality and instinct. You wait for both to develop in the first year or two. In Alex's case . . . nada.

I agree with posters: QBR means little. People have been throwing up stats (and isolated instances) to bolster their agruments and you can pretty much get them to support any argument you want. What matters is actually being able to comprehend what you are watching. Actually LOOK at how he plays the game. In context. Tony Romo has much better stats than Joe Montana. That makes him better?

I also pretty much agree with what sus says, except for one thing: Alex doesn't belong at #16. He's much lower than that IMO. After 7 years of showing what he's got, he's not going to miraculously change his stripes.

I was a big proponent of hiring Harbaugh (even when it wasn't popular) but I worry about his obsession with Alex. If he doesn't get off that, I predict that he experiences a sophmore slump of unfortunate proportions.

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/49ERS-NOTEBOOK-49ers-send-Rumph-to-Redskins-for-2491188.php
(only link i could find)

Walsh waxes on Niners: Count former coach Bill Walsh among those impressed with the 49ers' win over the Bears.

"I just think they look better than any other team I've seen this preseason," Walsh said by phone Monday. The Hall of Fame coach gushed about quarterback Alex Smith, who completed 16-of-21 passes for 137 yards.

"He looks like a totally different quarterback," Walsh said. "He showed poise and presence considering how he looked last year."


Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
unlike many posters, who seemingly are personally invested in seeing him (specifically Alex Smith) succeed. I'm indifferent
I see a guy who understands the system as well as any coach, but who doesn't possess the necessary intangibles to consistently play at a high level. And, no, I did not see that change last year.

Just gonna address these two things in order.

- There ARE some of us who.. prefer... get that word.. prefer... that Alex have this huge redemption career. No problem admitting that much... it speaks to a great guy that had one of the worst circumstances in his career to deal with and he still persevered and excelled (assuming here that he does). Now that said... if Alex falls to injury in week 3... and Kaepernick comes in and swiftly leads us to SB trophies? We will ALL be jumping through the roof with excitement. That's what you will get with the pro-Alex side. We will take wins however we can, but we simply... prefer... that it be Alex to lead us. Nothing wrong with that.

- When you say "I see a guy who lacks this or that"... as you are typing it out, does the thought of "well obviously Harbaugh disagrees with me" not pop into your head? It should. So then you must choose to think that Jim Harbaugh is a fool when it comes to QB evaluation. See how we can draw that conclusion?
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Let go of the past, sus.... his first few years are irrelevant now....

so your saying he's a top tier qb right now ?


First few years are irrelevant?! Too funny!

They only offer insight into the guy's personality and "instincts". You know "instincts", the quality Walsh considered most important in a QB. Alex is weak in both personality and instinct. You wait for both to develop in the first year or two. In Alex's case . . . nada.

I agree with posters: QBR means little. People have been throwing up stats (and isolated instances) to bolster their agruments and you can pretty much get them to support any argument you want. What matters is actually being able to comprehend what you are watching. Actually LOOK at how he plays the game. In context. Tony Romo has much better stats than Joe Montana. That makes him better?

I also pretty much agree with what sus says, except for one thing: Alex doesn't belong at #16. He's much lower than that IMO. After 7 years of showing what he's got, he's not going to miraculously change his stripes.

I was a big proponent of hiring Harbaugh (even when it wasn't popular) but I worry about his obsession with Alex. If he doesn't get off that, I predict that he experiences a sophmore slump of unfortunate proportions.

What did last year tell you about his "instincts" and "personality"? The year before?

..and are you saying that you love Harbs but do not trust his instincts and coaching as pertains to A. Smith?

Like I said in the other post . . . no change in my assessment of his "instincts" or "personality".

I said what I said about Harbaugh. He will do as he sees fit as it should be. And I have no knowledge as to Harbaughs "instincts" as pertains to ASmith. Is what he's saying about Alex born out of necessity or something else? There is not enough of a history with him for me to judge. Notwithstanding, no coach is infallible; Niner fans would surely recognize that.
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