I don't think so. The teams that have won it all in recent years without an elite QB have had historically great defenses. (Ravens & Bucs) While you could argue that Eli Manning isn't an elite QB, but he made some huge plays during that playoff run. It boils down to this, IMO...will Alex be able to win us a playoff game against a good defense?
I think he's more in the mold of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer. Responsible with the football, but not the kind of guy that's going to win a game 35-31.
There are 230 users in the forums
The Big Question. Can we win it all?
The Big Question. Can we win it all?
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:16 AM
- LA9erFan
- Veteran
- Posts: 66,021
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:23 AM
- WildBill
- Veteran
- Posts: 6,100
Doubt it, but anything is possible-like injuries during the course of the playoffs and at the end of the season. Like say Packers second to last game lose Rogers to injuries but make the playoffs w/o him or lose him in prior playoff game before meeting the niners.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:31 AM
- Otter
- Veteran
- Posts: 22,936
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
I don't think so. The teams that have won it all in recent years without an elite QB have had historically great defenses. (Ravens & Bucs) While you could argue that Eli Manning isn't an elite QB, but he made some huge plays during that playoff run. It boils down to this, IMO...will Alex be able to win us a playoff game against a good defense?
I think he's more in the mold of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer. Responsible with the football, but not the kind of guy that's going to win a game 35-31.
Eli is NOT elite, and his huge plays were more a matter of luck than anything else. I'm not only referring to the helmet catch either. There were multiple times in that game and the playoffs where he threw it up for grabs and was lucky to have his guy come down with it, or knock it away. Eli did not deserve the MVP award. He belongs squarely in the middle of the Brad Johnson Trent Dilfer type QBs.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:33 AM
- RishikeshA
- Veteran
- Posts: 12,720
Something is definitely happening.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:35 AM
- dwy621
- Veteran
- Posts: 1,074
I think it is way too early to tell. The team has so much that it needs to improve before I would say yes. I'd like to see them play against an elite QB first (Rodgers, Brees). We all saw what Romo did and he is a cut below those 2 QBs. I think we will have a better idea after they play the Giants and Steelers.
[ Edited by dwy621 on Oct 19, 2011 at 10:42 AM ]
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:41 AM
- 49erDynasty
- Veteran
- Posts: 126
Yes, certainly as a dark horse. A lot also depends on match-ups and it is difficult to predict what playoff picture and injuries will unfold. And then there is always the any given Sunday scenario where specific gameday preparation and luck play into the equation.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:46 AM
- LA9erFan
- Veteran
- Posts: 66,021
Originally posted by Otter:
Eli is NOT elite, and his huge plays were more a matter of luck than anything else. I'm not only referring to the helmet catch either. There were multiple times in that game and the playoffs where he threw it up for grabs and was lucky to have his guy come down with it, or knock it away. Eli did not deserve the MVP award. He belongs squarely in the middle of the Brad Johnson Trent Dilfer type QBs.
Even if you consider Manning's postseason performance to be overrated...which is fair...I don't think he belongs in the company of Johnson or Dilfer because stylistically he's the polar opposite of those guys. He takes a ton of chances for the sake of making a play. Be it through skill or through luck, he threw a lot of passes in that playoff run that ended up as big plays via the passing game. Guys like Dilfer, Johnson, or Alex don't even attempt those passes. Dilfer & Johnson won by relying on historically dominant defenses while making very few mistakes. And even then you could argue that Johnson made a lot more plays than Alex does.
I don't think our defense is at the point where we can make it through the playoffs without our QB carrying us to a win in at least one of the the 3-4 games that are required to win a Super Bowl.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:50 AM
- goodthings19
- Veteran
- Posts: 991
Originally posted by LA9erFan:I don't think so. The teams that have won it all in recent years without an elite QB have had historically great defenses. (Ravens & Bucs) While you could argue that Eli Manning isn't an elite QB, but he made some huge plays during that playoff run. It boils down to this, IMO...will Alex be able to win us a playoff game against a good defense?
I think he's more in the mold of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer. Responsible with the football, but not the kind of guy that's going to win a game 35-31.
Frankly we wont know what Alex is really capable of under Harbaugh until next season. We will see improvement as the season continues but Alex will have fully matured in this new offense by this time next season. Personally I expect great things. I see potential for improvement in Alex.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:55 AM
- Next9erDynasty
- Veteran
- Posts: 75
Originally posted by Otter:
We're only 6 games in to the season, that is a fairly small sample size. Historically teams that have that bend but don't break approach, meaning giving up lots of yards but keep the opponent out of the endzone, eventually break. I don't think we'll see a dramatic dropoff the rest of the regular season because we benefit from 5 games against the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks. But when it comes to the better teams in the playoffs, I would expect that if they can move the ball up and down the field, they will eventually push it in for the score.
Going in to the Detroit game the 49ers were one of the top, if not the top, teams in the league as far as redzone defense, allowing 4 TDs in 15 trips. They allowed Detroit to score two touchdowns. Detroit scored TDs on 50% of their red zone trips. Against the better offenses, I think our defensive red zone percentage goes up.
Overall the defense is #13 in terms of yards, but 24th in terms of passing yards. They struggle against the pass. If the rookie continues to improve and they generate a pass rush, that will likely go up, but our secondary is the weak link on this defense.
Detroit's success, our overall struggles against the pass, just seem to be bad omens to me for our future success. But again, 6 games is a small sample size and a lot can happen. Culliver may come on and prove to be an effective corner opposite Rogers. Goldson may finally learn to wrap up someone on the tackle.
Defensive stats get skewed by play calling. The reason why the Defense gives up so many pass yards is because people stop trying to run. A stout run defense will almost always result in more pass attempts ... which is a good thing, because it usually means more turnovers.
I think the same effect is in force with Alex Smith ... spotty pass protection, injuries to WR's, and the continual process of establishing route timing has limited what the offense can do. 175 yards, 1 TD and no picks sucks for Fantasy football, but it will win more games than 330 yards, 3 TD's, and 3 picks.
The single most relevant stat to wins and losses is the turnover +/-
Right now the game plan on offense is to throw down-field enough to open up run lanes for ball-control. The defensive game plan is to stop the run and force pass attempts to create turnover opportunities for the secondary.
IMHO, both seem to be working and are likely to improve as the season progresses.
Oct 19, 2011 at 10:55 AM
- Otter
- Veteran
- Posts: 22,936
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Even if you consider Manning's postseason performance to be overrated...which is fair...I don't think he belongs in the company of Johnson or Dilfer because stylistically he's the polar opposite of those guys. He takes a ton of chances for the sake of making a play. Be it through skill or through luck, he threw a lot of passes in that playoff run that ended up as big plays via the passing game. Guys like Dilfer, Johnson, or Alex don't even attempt those passes. Dilfer & Johnson won by relying on historically dominant defenses while making very few mistakes. And even then you could argue that Johnson made a lot more plays than Alex does.
I don't think our defense is at the point where we can make it through the playoffs without our QB carrying us to a win in at least one of the the 3-4 games that are required to win a Super Bowl.
Ok. I'll agree that stylistically Eli is different from Johnson, Dilfer, and Smith. In my opinion though, I group him with those QBs as far as overall ability. I wouldn't want Eli under center with 2 minutes to go and my team down by 6. Statistically Eli has a career QB rating of 81, Johnson's is about the same 84. Johnson has a higher completion percentage, but that is attributable to the type of offense he played in. One interesting stat is that both Johnson and Manning had approximately the same yards/attempt during their super bowl seasons, 6.9 yards/attempt.
I don't think our defense is equivalent to the Ravens, Bucs, or Bears D in their Super Bowl seasons, and couldn't carry us to a championship. Offensively Smith is only one piece of the puzzle that I don't think could win the big one.
Oct 19, 2011 at 11:07 AM
- kidash98
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 26,621
Originally posted by Otter:Originally posted by LA9erFan:Even if you consider Manning's postseason performance to be overrated...which is fair...I don't think he belongs in the company of Johnson or Dilfer because stylistically he's the polar opposite of those guys. He takes a ton of chances for the sake of making a play. Be it through skill or through luck, he threw a lot of passes in that playoff run that ended up as big plays via the passing game. Guys like Dilfer, Johnson, or Alex don't even attempt those passes. Dilfer & Johnson won by relying on historically dominant defenses while making very few mistakes. And even then you could argue that Johnson made a lot more plays than Alex does.
I don't think our defense is at the point where we can make it through the playoffs without our QB carrying us to a win in at least one of the the 3-4 games that are required to win a Super Bowl.
Ok. I'll agree that stylistically Eli is different from Johnson, Dilfer, and Smith. In my opinion though, I group him with those QBs as far as overall ability. I wouldn't want Eli under center with 2 minutes to go and my team down by 6. Statistically Eli has a career QB rating of 81, Johnson's is about the same 84. Johnson has a higher completion percentage, but that is attributable to the type of offense he played in. One interesting stat is that both Johnson and Manning had approximately the same yards/attempt during their super bowl seasons, 6.9 yards/attempt.
I don't think our defense is equivalent to the Ravens, Bucs, or Bears D in their Super Bowl seasons, and couldn't carry us to a championship. Offensively Smith is only one piece of the puzzle that I don't think could win the big one.
I think the difference between those two teams (minus the Bears) and ours is that we are still considered a young team that has time to gel. I don't think we'll ever reach the type of defense the '85 Bears, the '00 Ravens or the '02 Bucs did but I also think that our offense can be a tad better than theirs (just a tad and again, not the Bears) in the longrun. I can actually see this team compete for the next few years...
- 98
Oct 19, 2011 at 11:07 AM
- jacklegniner
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,206
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
I don't think so. The teams that have won it all in recent years without an elite QB have had historically great defenses. (Ravens & Bucs) While you could argue that Eli Manning isn't an elite QB, but he made some huge plays during that playoff run. It boils down to this, IMO...will Alex be able to win us a playoff game against a good defense?
I think he's more in the mold of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer. Responsible with the football, but not the kind of guy that's going to win a game 35-31.
Not necessarily disagreeing with you...
There have been many teams that have gone all the way with non-elite QBS. The last couple of years though it seems that the Elite QB gets it done though. Bears had a chance with Grossman. Giants did it with a semi good Eli. In the past, the Redskins with any QB. Even the the Broncos when Elway was at the end of his career. Most of those teams played mistake free football throughout the playoffs. They had strong Olines with a good running game, and yeah they had good to great defenses. I think it comes down to the gameplan and the execution during the game. Even Big Ben's first Superbowl he didn't do anything special. I think they had a great gameplan to let him manage the game and rely on a strong D and run game.
I think the Niners have all those things this year. I don't know if they will go all the way but I think it comes down to gameplan and execution. If another team can get Gore to fumble or Alex to make mistakes than it makes it harder for us. But for the most part, I think thats why we have been doing so well. We are executing our strategy and the other teams are making the mistakes...
Oct 19, 2011 at 11:18 AM
- HessianDud
- Veteran
- Posts: 22,995
Detroit is the #4 scoring offense in the league, and, I'm pretty sure, one of the better redzone offenses.
We have the #4 scoring defense in the league, in terms of total points--and the top 3 teams have all played in one fewer game. We're #2 in PPG. #1 in Redzone Defense, even giving up 2 RZ Td's last week.
We do give up yards, and the secondary is the weak link on the defense, but I honestly don't think its anything to be concerned about at this point.
We have the #4 scoring defense in the league, in terms of total points--and the top 3 teams have all played in one fewer game. We're #2 in PPG. #1 in Redzone Defense, even giving up 2 RZ Td's last week.
We do give up yards, and the secondary is the weak link on the defense, but I honestly don't think its anything to be concerned about at this point.
Oct 19, 2011 at 12:13 PM
- Memphis9er
- Veteran
- Posts: 12,247
I think we can hang with anyone in the NFL. We have the kind of team built to beat the pass happy teams, ball control offense, stout defense and stellar special teams. If our running game keeps being this good and we get receivers healthy and in sync, we can beat anyone. Every team has its weaknesses, let's take Green Bay for example. Their defense is good against the run, but they give up 319 yards passing a game, that puts them 31st out of 32 teams in the NFL, our pass defense is the 21st best giving 261 yards a game up and the Packers have yet to play the Lions and I don't think they have to see Vick this year. The Saints defense is a mess as well they give up 5.1 yards a carry and 13.4 yards per completion and their oline is struggling. The Patriots are dead last in defense in the NFL and though they have a great offense, it takes some defense to win it all. The Ravens might be the toughest matchup for us in the AFC, even with Flacco playing crappy they are still putting up points and playing good football. Yeah it is too early to start predicting end results, a lot can happen, but it is not too early to tell that we are one of the best teams in the whole NFL and have as good a chance as anyone to win it all.
Oct 19, 2011 at 12:14 PM
- ninertico
- Veteran
- Posts: 10,259
Originally posted by Otter:
We're only 6 games in to the season, that is a fairly small sample size. Historically teams that have that bend but don't break approach, meaning giving up lots of yards but keep the opponent out of the endzone, eventually break. I don't think we'll see a dramatic dropoff the rest of the regular season because we benefit from 5 games against the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks. But when it comes to the better teams in the playoffs, I would expect that if they can move the ball up and down the field, they will eventually push it in for the score.
Going in to the Detroit game the 49ers were one of the top, if not the top, teams in the league as far as redzone defense, allowing 4 TDs in 15 trips. They allowed Detroit to score two touchdowns. Detroit scored TDs on 50% of their red zone trips. Against the better offenses, I think our defensive red zone percentage goes up.
Overall the defense is #13 in terms of yards, but 24th in terms of passing yards. They struggle against the pass. If the rookie continues to improve and they generate a pass rush, that will likely go up, but our secondary is the weak link on this defense.
Detroit's success, our overall struggles against the pass, just seem to be bad omens to me for our future success. But again, 6 games is a small sample size and a lot can happen. Culliver may come on and prove to be an effective corner opposite Rogers. Goldson may finally learn to wrap up someone on the tackle.
But but but....
They are THE #1 red-zone defense.
So.... I'm just messin' with ya. I know what you are saying. But it is still a sample and meaningful one at that. I can't wait 'till we face NYG, Balti, and Pitt, teams with good if not very good QBs. We handled Stafford well, but got burned by Romo. Still, I believe that one Dallas game was a fluke, not the other way around.
We'll see Otter, but I still think that the arrow is pointing up on our Secondary, not down. But, it can be said that the secondary is the weak link in the D's armor.
[ Edited by ninertico on Oct 19, 2011 at 12:19 PM ]