VD atop the NFL in dropped passes and Crabs right behind him(UPDATED)

Originally posted by job2436:
He may be tied atop the NFL but I think he more than makes up with those drops with TD's. I mean seriously, when was the last time a 9er TE lead the league in TD's????? As for Crabby, he's still a rookie so give him a break.

I have a hard time giving Crabtree a break for being a rookie, especially when his best asset is supposed to be his hands.

I don't think there's much of a difference between catching in college and catching in the NFL.

-9fA

Originally posted by BigRon:
Well look at it this way. Now we have 2 TOs on the team.

Minus the mouth and bad attitude

Originally posted by YuNGaCE:
i knew it. i don't get how VD could catch the toughest passes in traffic getting hit and not make the easy ones with some room in front of him

Ask TO how he did it in that Packers game.

Everyone who just made excuses for VD in this thread, and even the guy on the first page that only thinks 1 of them were actual "drops" and that the others are subjective are in pure denial. He is the most unnatural catching TE ive seen. Watching him come down with the ball is like watching Kwame Brown receive a ball in the post. It freaks me the f*ck out, and its just not trustworthy. Am i complaining about having him as our TE, or even the way he is playing? F*ck no, but those of you that think he actually has good hands, you're lying to yourself. God gave him everything else to be an un real football player, which is why he is doing so well, but he didnt give him hands. I think we just need to live with it and move on.

Originally posted by BigRon:

Originally posted by YuNGaCE:
i knew it. i don't get how VD could catch the toughest passes in traffic getting hit and not make the easy ones with some room in front of him

Ask TO how he did it in that Packers game.

Notice that was the same jump catch just like VD likes to do.

Originally posted by HaiGuise:
I know Smith is doing much better now, but I think he's gotta learn the art of throwing the touch pass when he needs to, rather than going for laser beams every time. Watching Montana and Young alternate speeds on the ball was a thing of beauty. I hope Alex can learn to do this too.

Smith isn't a finished work yet.

That having been said, I have now seen three Green Bay games this year and the "great" Aaron Rodgers has the same problem - he doesn't throw every pass right on the numbers and with just the right touch. In fact, if it weren't for the fact he has some very good receivers who run excellent routes and adjust to less-than-perfect passes, his success would be much less than it is.

But back to Davis, if you add his penalties to the drops, his negatives come close to his production. Though Davis has been getting a lot of raves for his 10 TDs, Jermichael Finley in Green Bay is a much better pass receiver than Davis. The first thing you notice about Finley is his much greater agility which allows him to make a lot of catches Davis can't make, or just drops. Finley is also a much more precise pattern running and makes much better sight reads, this allows Rodgers an option on a lot of blitzes. Finley is almost a fast as Davis but is not called on to block as much as Davis. Though Finley doesn't have the TD production of Davis, that is largely due to the fact GB has Jennings, Driver and James Jones, all much more accomplished receivers than any on the 49ers, and they are getting TD catches while Davis is the only guy in SF.

I like Davis' overall package but to consider him a locked-in Pro Bowl selection is homerism of a high level. He just isn't that good when you scrape away the TD numbers.

Pro Football Focus

These stats are from different source so they differ a bit from the original post. Also, they don't include the latest Seattle game.

Crabtree - 42 targets, 4 drops, catches 61.9% of passes targeted to him (44th / 104 WRs)
Davis - 81 targets, 7 drops, catches 70.4% of passes targeted to him (30th / 59 TEs)

And just for fun:

Heyward-Bey - 38 targets, 5 drops, catches 23.7% of passes targeted to him (104th / 104 WRs)

Originally posted by DynastyChile:
Everyone who just made excuses for VD in this thread, and even the guy on the first page that only thinks 1 of them were actual "drops" and that the others are subjective are in pure denial. He is the most unnatural catching TE ive seen. Watching him come down with the ball is like watching Kwame Brown receive a ball in the post. It freaks me the f*ck out, and its just not trustworthy. Am i complaining about having him as our TE, or even the way he is playing? F*ck no, but those of you that think he actually has good hands, you're lying to yourself. God gave him everything else to be an un real football player, which is why he is doing so well, but he didnt give him hands. I think we just need to live with it and move on.

Fortunately, catching is something you'll be able to coach. Though he is not a natural pass catcher, he does seem to have better hands this year than the previous ones.

Guys stop being on Crabs nutcase about the drops. First thing first he is a ROOKIE and didn't go to training camp. All those drops will probably fix in the off season.

We have a terrible problem with drops on this team. Other NFL teams catch the ball. I don't know what our problem is but it needs to be fixed. VD has never had real reliable hands but he is having a huge year. With VD it's going to be like TO. Some drops but some huge plays and you have to throw him the ball anyway. Crabtree maybe because he is a rookie.

Originally posted by HaiGuise:
I know Smith is doing much better now, but I think he's gotta learn the art of throwing the touch pass when he needs to, rather than going for laser beams every time. Watching Montana and Young alternate speeds on the ball was a thing of beauty. I hope Alex can learn to do this too.

No touch? Are you sure your watching Smith play QB. If anything he has more touch this year than he ever has.

Originally posted by TJA85:

Originally posted by DynastyChile:
Everyone who just made excuses for VD in this thread, and even the guy on the first page that only thinks 1 of them were actual "drops" and that the others are subjective are in pure denial. He is the most unnatural catching TE ive seen. Watching him come down with the ball is like watching Kwame Brown receive a ball in the post. It freaks me the f*ck out, and its just not trustworthy. Am i complaining about having him as our TE, or even the way he is playing? F*ck no, but those of you that think he actually has good hands, you're lying to yourself. God gave him everything else to be an un real football player, which is why he is doing so well, but he didnt give him hands. I think we just need to live with it and move on.

Fortunately, catching is something you'll be able to coach. Though he is not a natural pass catcher, he does seem to have better hands this year than the previous ones.

I dont think he has better hands, i just think he has more opportunities to catch the ball, so when he only catches 10 balls and drops 2-3 it seems like he has bad hands. But when he is catching 50 and dropping 13, he has better hands.

And i dont think catching the ball can be taught. Do you think Marvin Harrison and Vernon Davis had different teachers growing up and thats why they have such different hands? No, Vernon is a big boy, if he didnt have natural hands in pee wee, jr high flag, high school, and college then he wont in the NFL.

Originally posted by CalgaryNiner:
Pro Football Focus

These stats are from different source so they differ a bit from the original post. Also, they don't include the latest Seattle game.

Crabtree - 42 targets, 4 drops, catches 61.9% of passes targeted to him (44th / 104 WRs)
Davis - 81 targets, 7 drops, catches 70.4% of passes targeted to him (30th / 59 TEs)

And just for fun:

Heyward-Bey - 38 targets, 5 drops, catches 23.7% of passes targeted to him (104th / 104 WRs)

Crabtree 42 targets 26 catches-4 drops 86.67% of catchable balls
Davis 81 targets 57 catches 7 drops 89.06% of catchable balls

Are the other 12 targeted throws for Crabtree and the 18 for Vernon just throws in their basic area?

Cut Crabtree some slack, it's his rookie year. If he's still dropping balls in his third or fourth year, then we'll worry.

And Vernon, you take the good with the bad just like with Terrell Owens. Vernon deserves a free pass since he's having an All-Pro year.

Originally posted by MadMartz:

Originally posted by Norcal9erfan:

Originally posted by MadMartz:
1t Vernon Davis SF 9
1t Brent Celek Phi 9
1t Louis Murphy Oak 9
1t Terrell Owens Buf 9
1t Bobby Wade KC 9
6t Ted Ginn Jr. Mia 8
6t Tim Hightower Ari 8
8t Donnie Avery StL 7
8t Dwayne Bowe KC 7
8t Mark Bradley KC 7
8t Marques Colston NO 7
8t Michael Crabtree SF 7
8t Santonio Holmes Pit 7
8t Calvin Johnson Det 7
8t Mario Manningham NYG 7
8t Mohamed Massaquoi Cle 7
8t Randy McMichael StL 7
8t Chansi Stuckey Cle 7
19t Antonio Bryant TB 6
19t Antonio Gates SD 6
19t Jerome Harrison Cle 6
19t Darrius Heyward-Bey Oak 6
19t Michael Jenkins Atl 6
19t Andre Johnson Hou 6
19t Derrick Mason Bal 6
19t Randy Moss NE 6
19t Robert Royal Cle 6
19t Nate Washington Ten 6
19t Roy Williams Dal 6

Crabs already has 7 drops

Where did you get this stat? I want to go see how many attempts these dropped passes are out of. (drops/pass attempt) Thats the important number.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

Okay, I have some real numbers now! The data isnt complete for all as not all of these "most dropped passes" candidates were also in the "most thrown to" category. That means that didnt make the list have an even worst tendency to drop the ball! But we wont go there for now. Here is what I found:

.......................................[Passes ].......
.......................................[dropped]....[Thrown to]...... [% dropped]
1t Vernon Davis SF 9.............9.................101................. 8.91%
1t Brent Celek Phi.................9.................84.................. 10.71%
1t Louis Murphy Oak..............9.................
1t Terrell Owens Buf..............9.................85 ................. 10.59%
1t Bobby Wade KC................9.................
6t Ted Ginn Jr. Mia................8.................
6t Tim Hightower Ari..............8.................
8t Donnie Avery StL..............7.................
8t Dwayne Bowe KC..............7.................
8t Mark Bradley KC...............7.................
8t Marques Colston NO..........7.................
8t Michael Crabtree SF..........7.................
8t Santonio Holmes Pit..........7.................105 .................. 6.67%
8t Calvin Johnson Det...........7.................96................... 7.29%
8t Mario Manningham NYG.....7.................
8t Mohamed Massaquoi Cle...7.................79 ................. 8.86%
8t Randy McMichael StL.........7.................
8t Chansi Stuckey Cle...........7.................
19t Antonio Bryant TB ..........6.................
19t Antonio Gates SD............6.................92 .................. 6.52%
19t Jerome Harrison Cle........6.................
19t Darrius Heyward-BeyOak.6.................
19t Michael Jenkins Atl..........6.................
19t Andre Johnson Hou.........6.................130 ................. 4.62%
19t Derrick Mason Bal..........6 .................102 ................. 5.88%
19t Randy Moss NE..............6.................116 ................. 5.17%
19t Robert Royal Cle...........6.................
19t Nate Washington Ten.....6.................
19t Roy Williams Dal...........6.................

(Sorry about the formating, I tried to line them up to make it clear)

Take the Seattle game out of this data and he only had 6 dropped passes for 92 attempts, which is only a 6.5% drop rate!

The data above shows that Vernon is amongst some pretty important names as far as reliable targets who get thrown to often. Amongst that group though, he is also more prone to drop passes when thrown to. The only 2 guys with data that drop more passes than him are T. Owens and Brent Celek.

Make of it what you want.... My opinion is that his number have improved from last year when we looked at a similar analysis. I think it was something like 12% if my memory serves me well.... That's why I always referred to him as brick hands this offseason!

He did work his ass off working the jug machines and it was mentioned in several off-season articles that he would be seen before everyone showed up, and was still working on catching when everyone left! He has earned my trust with the great ballsy plays he has made this year and has shown that he can be our #1 or #2 target!

[ Edited by Norcal9erfan on Dec 9, 2009 at 10:41:03 ]