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Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

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  • Furlow
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,170
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
per ESPN

Garoppolo taking snaps will be a decidedly different look for Las Vegas. He's replacing Derek Carr, the Raiders' starter since his rookie season of 2014, and Carr only missed two regular-season starts because of injury in his career.

But Garoppolo is also expected to give the Raiders' offense, which was the NFL's No. 12-ranked unit last season (No. 11 passing, No. 17 rushing, No. 12 scoring), not only a fresh start, but a kickstart, given his familiarity with McDaniels and the scheme and the discomfort Carr had in said system.

Consider: Garoppolo's passer rating as a starter with McDaniels calling plays is 119.0 compared to Carr's 86.3.

But passer rating doesn't matter. Air yards, fantasy football points, and SportsCenter Top Ten Plays are what win games.

Completed air yards per attempt is part of why Jimmy makes way less than Derek Carr. Despite your (and TreyDey's) denial, throwing short to YAC monsters is easier than throwing down the field to regular WRs.

Filter by completed air yards per attempt and scan through. Please show me the correlation to winning. It doesn't exist. The best QB in the NFL (Mahomes) ranked 16th in that "stat" last year.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

Just because they are called "advanced stats," doesn't mean they carry any significance to winning football games.

That's because winning is a team effort. Sometimes teams win because their QB does most of the work. Sometimes teams win because they have a lot of studs on offense and the QB is a cog in the machine.

For example, look what happened when Tua went down in Miami. Their offense fell off a cliff (I believe they went to 16 points per game or so). Look what happened when Jimmy went down in San Francisco. The offense went from 22 points per game to 32 points per game. Brock Purdy completed air yards per completoin: 5.9. Jimmy: 4.8.

This argument is terrible lol. Purdy is better than Jimmy. Tua's backup is worse than Tua. That's all that proves.

Now go look at passer rating rankings, and you'll see a much higher correlation to winning. That's the issue here. Those of us who appreciate Jimmy can see that what he does helps win games. The small number of you who don't just want to see cool highlights.

So far, Purdy has provided both, let's hope that continues.

Passer rating is a TEAM STAT. Of course it's going to correlate with winning. Every single good thing about a QB in passer rating also is a good thing about the receivers, and there's literally no way to distinguish who is more at fault or deserving of praise for each pass included in the metric, because the metric doesn't distinguish between contributions to passer or pass receiver. Hence why Total QBR is better. As is Next Gen Stats. And so on.

Lol right. If passer rating is a TEAM STAT then every stat is a TEAM STAT. Terrible argument. Next.

To a degree most are. But some less so than others. For example, yards per completion versus completed air yards per completion. The former has LITERALLY ZERO means of distinguishing between what the receiver contributed and what the QB does. The latter shows that the QB is at least responsible for how far the ball traveled. The pass may have been inaccurate, he may have thrown under pressure, and so on. But we have MORE information about his contribution with that stat than we do with yards per completion, in which a WR catching a pass behind the line and running for a 12 yard gain is indistinguishable from a pass thrown 12 yards through the air.

Other stats, such as QBR and various other advanced metrics, painstakingly look at the context of each play to determine how much contribution from each player likely went into the play. The problem with QBR is ESPN hiding some of how the stats are weighted, but EPA and so on are fairly accessible.

But passer rating? It gives you LITERALLY ZERO information about how much is on the QB and how much is on the receivers. None. None at all. That at best gives it a large margin of error in evaluating QB play, but a very accurate evaluation of team passing offense.

Passer rating gives ZERO information about how much is on the QB. I have heard it all now.
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
per ESPN

Garoppolo taking snaps will be a decidedly different look for Las Vegas. He's replacing Derek Carr, the Raiders' starter since his rookie season of 2014, and Carr only missed two regular-season starts because of injury in his career.

But Garoppolo is also expected to give the Raiders' offense, which was the NFL's No. 12-ranked unit last season (No. 11 passing, No. 17 rushing, No. 12 scoring), not only a fresh start, but a kickstart, given his familiarity with McDaniels and the scheme and the discomfort Carr had in said system.

Consider: Garoppolo's passer rating as a starter with McDaniels calling plays is 119.0 compared to Carr's 86.3.

But passer rating doesn't matter. Air yards, fantasy football points, and SportsCenter Top Ten Plays are what win games.

Completed air yards per attempt is part of why Jimmy makes way less than Derek Carr. Despite your (and TreyDey's) denial, throwing short to YAC monsters is easier than throwing down the field to regular WRs.

Filter by completed air yards per attempt and scan through. Please show me the correlation to winning. It doesn't exist. The best QB in the NFL (Mahomes) ranked 16th in that "stat" last year.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

Just because they are called "advanced stats," doesn't mean they carry any significance to winning football games.

That's because winning is a team effort. Sometimes teams win because their QB does most of the work. Sometimes teams win because they have a lot of studs on offense and the QB is a cog in the machine.

For example, look what happened when Tua went down in Miami. Their offense fell off a cliff (I believe they went to 16 points per game or so). Look what happened when Jimmy went down in San Francisco. The offense went from 22 points per game to 32 points per game. Brock Purdy completed air yards per completoin: 5.9. Jimmy: 4.8.

This argument is terrible lol. Purdy is better than Jimmy. Tua's backup is worse than Tua. That's all that proves.

Now go look at passer rating rankings, and you'll see a much higher correlation to winning. That's the issue here. Those of us who appreciate Jimmy can see that what he does helps win games. The small number of you who don't just want to see cool highlights.

So far, Purdy has provided both, let's hope that continues.

Passer rating is a TEAM STAT. Of course it's going to correlate with winning. Every single good thing about a QB in passer rating also is a good thing about the receivers, and there's literally no way to distinguish who is more at fault or deserving of praise for each pass included in the metric, because the metric doesn't distinguish between contributions to passer or pass receiver. Hence why Total QBR is better. As is Next Gen Stats. And so on.

Lol right. If passer rating is a TEAM STAT then every stat is a TEAM STAT. Terrible argument. Next.

To a degree most are. But some less so than others. For example, yards per completion versus completed air yards per completion. The former has LITERALLY ZERO means of distinguishing between what the receiver contributed and what the QB does. The latter shows that the QB is at least responsible for how far the ball traveled. The pass may have been inaccurate, he may have thrown under pressure, and so on. But we have MORE information about his contribution with that stat than we do with yards per completion, in which a WR catching a pass behind the line and running for a 12 yard gain is indistinguishable from a pass thrown 12 yards through the air.

Other stats, such as QBR and various other advanced metrics, painstakingly look at the context of each play to determine how much contribution from each player likely went into the play. The problem with QBR is ESPN hiding some of how the stats are weighted, but EPA and so on are fairly accessible.

But passer rating? It gives you LITERALLY ZERO information about how much is on the QB and how much is on the receivers. None. None at all. That at best gives it a large margin of error in evaluating QB play, but a very accurate evaluation of team passing offense.

Passer rating gives ZERO information about how much is on the QB. I have heard it all now.

Please just think...

Which part of completion percentage tells you if the pass is accurate?

Which part of yards per attempt tells you if the pass traveled negative six yards or sixty? (or was accurate or inaccurate)

Which part of TD% tells you whether the pass was thrown behind the line or beyond, whether it was accurate or inaccurate, whether the WR had to make a beautiful catch or caught it in stride, etc?

Which part of INT% tells you whether the WR ran the wrong route, whether it was a bad pass, or a bad read, or banged off the WR's hands, etc?
.
.
.
All you can glean from any of that is that the team completed a pass, or gained passing yards, or scored a passing TD, or had an interception. At no point at all in any of those statistics are you given any information about WHY those things occurred.
Originally posted by Furlow:
That had Jimmy ranked 8th last year? Okay. Lol

Lot closer to the truth that 3rd.

No stat is perfect but thats the best one going imo
[ Edited by 9ers4eva on Mar 24, 2023 at 7:36 PM ]
Originally posted by Furlow:
Well Tua led the NFL in passer rating last season, and led the NFL in air yards per attempt. So your argument here is also terrible. Even if it did favor QB's who threw shorter passes, that just means that throwing shorter passes correlates to winning. Because the passer rating rankings heavily correlate to winning. Much more than QBR, air yards, or whatever other "cool" QB stats that ESPN has brainwashed this generation into thinking have significance.

You have a study that backs that assertion up?
Originally posted by Furlow:
Passer rating gives ZERO information about how much is on the QB. I have heard it all now.

Did you know jimmy landed the fourth largest fa contract of the 2023 nfl season? Does that give you zero information on how much of a qb he is?
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Let me add that this also agrees with my own claims that INT% and COMP% are weakly correlated with win/loss percentage. I recall being mocked at making that claim after doing the math myself with 2020 statistics.

I have always said completion percentage is a vastly overrated stat on WZ. David Shaw came out and said it a few years ago that its almost an irrelevant stat. Not that he is God on that topic, but yeah.
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
I have always said completion percentage is a vastly overrated stat on WZ. David Shaw came out and said it a few years ago that its almost an irrelevant stat. Not that he is God on that topic, but yeah.

Batting average in baseball. Only matters when it's bad.
  • Furlow
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,170
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
I have always said completion percentage is a vastly overrated stat on WZ. David Shaw came out and said it a few years ago that its almost an irrelevant stat. Not that he is God on that topic, but yeah.

Batting average in baseball. Only matters when it's bad.

Batting average is overrated now?
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
I have always said completion percentage is a vastly overrated stat on WZ. David Shaw came out and said it a few years ago that its almost an irrelevant stat. Not that he is God on that topic, but yeah.

Batting average in baseball. Only matters when it's bad.

Batting average is overrated now?
no, just in different eras
Originally posted by Furlow:
Batting average is overrated now?

1000%

Could learn a thing or two by picking up moneyball.
[ Edited by 9ers4eva on Mar 27, 2023 at 2:43 PM ]

Originally posted by Furlow:
Batting average is overrated now?

Not so much overrated as much as it just isnt a great measure of how good a hitter is.
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
I have always said completion percentage is a vastly overrated stat on WZ. David Shaw came out and said it a few years ago that its almost an irrelevant stat. Not that he is God on that topic, but yeah.

Batting average in baseball. Only matters when it's bad.

Batting average is overrated now?

Lol it actually has been for quite a few years now. Way to self own yourself.

Teams mainly look into advanced metrics now, what you call "fantasy stats" lol.
  • Furlow
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,170
Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
I have always said completion percentage is a vastly overrated stat on WZ. David Shaw came out and said it a few years ago that its almost an irrelevant stat. Not that he is God on that topic, but yeah.

Batting average in baseball. Only matters when it's bad.

Batting average is overrated now?

Lol it actually has been for quite a few years now. Way to self own yourself.

Teams mainly look into advanced metrics now, what you call "fantasy stats" lol.

I'm fully aware of advanced stats in baseball. But to call batting average "overrated" and say that it doesn't correlate to how good a hitter is idiocy.
Originally posted by Waterbear:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by picklejuice:
I might watch some Las Vegas games now. I want to see the difference between McDaniels and Kyle's offense.

This is all I want to see. Does he play better in the spread or was Kyle's offense really what was best for him in the end. Or did it even matter? LOL

Define "play better".

There's no doubt in my mind that Jimmy will have success throwing to Devante Adams, arguably the best WR in football. Jimmy's a good QB who's played for McDaniels.

I ask the question what's "play better" mean because for years people have used wins-losses to prove Jimmy's value.

What happens if Jimmy G's stats improve but the Raiders go 6-10?

It will interesting to watch those same posters who used to value winning, now value individual performance over winning… now that he's losing (hypothetically).

I'm not sure. I haven't really thought about how that would look but I was just thinking more comfortable. More control. I'd 'imagine' the spread would pass more so that could be good and bad but I'm unsure what would be a fair marker.
Jimmy look good in silver and black
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