Lamar Jackson QB

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Browns will be Browns, but NFL deals are going up.

Looking at the JG $27 mil, you almost have to double it to get to today's top deals, which are around $50m. Not sure if that can continue but if it were to continue, we would see $100m in the future annual. So if you lock Lamar in at $52m.. it will look like a bargain in five+ years if he plays on his current level.

Ok jimmy G vs lamar
Last 2 seasons, 24ish games each(both 1,5xx snaps)
6331yds 68% completion rate 41tds 21 turnovers 15-9 record 47 sacks 301yds
6655yds 63% completion rate 38tds 25 turnovers 15-9 record 64 sacks 304yds

and one of these QBs deserves double what the other one gets?

Originally posted by jdt84_2:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Browns will be Browns, but NFL deals are going up.

Looking at the JG $27 mil, you almost have to double it to get to today's top deals, which are around $50m. Not sure if that can continue but if it were to continue, we would see $100m in the future annual. So if you lock Lamar in at $52m.. it will look like a bargain in five+ years if he plays on his current level.

Ok jimmy G vs lamar
Last 2 seasons, 24ish games each(both 1,5xx snaps)
6331yds 68% completion rate 41tds 21 turnovers 15-9 record 47 sacks 301yds
6655yds 63% completion rate 38tds 25 turnovers 15-9 record 64 sacks 304yds

and one of these QBs deserves double what the other one gets?

yeah no doubt.. look at JGs own contract as a young guy (137m) to a guy on the back 9 (72.7m). Big diff and the newer contracts are way bigger.. recall the $137m was a record, so he would need like $250m over the same 5 year period to have an equivalent deal to his 2018 contract.

NFL pays on potential, as do all sports. Lamar is 26, JG 31. So Lamar can go this entire contract and still be as young as JG is now. Plus look I like JG, he ain't Lamar Jackson.

How about this.. does Lamar deserve the JG deal from 2018? cuz in today's dollars that would be 5 years $255m or so.. I say yeah if JG got record money, why shouldn't Lamar, Lamar did wayyyy more on his first deal, than JG.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
yeah no doubt.. look at JGs own contract as a young guy (137m) to a guy on the back 9 (72.7m). Big diff and the newer contracts are way bigger.. recall the $137m was a record, so he would need like $250m over the same 5 year period to have an equivalent deal to his 2018 contract.

NFL pays on potential, as do all sports. Lamar is 26, JG 31. So Lamar can go this entire contract and still be as young as JG is now. Plus look I like JG, he ain't Lamar Jackson.

But only 7m guaranteed at signing, the rest were roster bonuses. And he "only" got $121m of it. And year 1 was the meat when he was the highest paid QB. His cap figure from '18 to '19 almost halved from 37m to 20m he went from highest paid to 15th and ended most of his guaranteed money.

And yes future potential is a part of it, so what is the future potential of a player who plays fewer games each year while their stats decline each year?

Daniel jones(terrible contract) has gotten better each year. And it can effectively be a 2 year $66m with an $18m cap hit if he flops or 3yr $115m if he doesn't live up to the hope.
21m 45m 39m(18gtd) $56m(9gtd)

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

How about this.. does Lamar deserve the JG deal from 2018? cuz in today's dollars that would be 5 years $255m or so.. I say yeah if JG got record money, why shouldn't Lamar, Lamar did wayyyy more on his first deal, than JG.

Where do you get 5yr $255m from? Because jimmy had the biggest and that is the biggest? so lamar only gets $102m guaranteed?
Sure he gets 2yrs $90m 2023-24, then 3yrs 165m 25-26-27 with $4m gtd each year.

Originally posted by jdt84_2:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
yeah no doubt.. look at JGs own contract as a young guy (137m) to a guy on the back 9 (72.7m). Big diff and the newer contracts are way bigger.. recall the $137m was a record, so he would need like $250m over the same 5 year period to have an equivalent deal to his 2018 contract.

NFL pays on potential, as do all sports. Lamar is 26, JG 31. So Lamar can go this entire contract and still be as young as JG is now. Plus look I like JG, he ain't Lamar Jackson.

But only 7m guaranteed at signing, the rest were roster bonuses. And he "only" got $121m of it. And year 1 was the meat when he was the highest paid QB. His cap figure from '18 to '19 almost halved from 37m to 20m he went from highest paid to 15th and ended most of his guaranteed money.

And yes future potential is a part of it, so what is the future potential of a player who plays fewer games each year while their stats decline each year?

Daniel jones(terrible contract) has gotten better each year. And it can effectively be a 2 year $66m with an $18m cap hit if he flops or 3yr $115m if he doesn't live up to the hope.
21m 45m 39m(18gtd) $56m(9gtd)

Daniel Jones.. he's not in Lamar's universe imo. Or at least give me odds on D Jones ever winning an NFL MVP or leading NFL in TD passes.

If JG can set contract records with his 2nd deal, why can't Lamar get a 2nd deal, without as much hassle.

The cost for another team is trading picks or signing which is two firsts, if you are going in like that, you aren't gonna bail out thanks to non gtd money, what would be the point, you would lose a ton of capital in the draft for a one or two year rental.. that's why I say you are all in or out here..

perhaps the solution is Lamar will simply play on the tag, like Cousins.

Originally posted by jdt84_2:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

How about this.. does Lamar deserve the JG deal from 2018? cuz in today's dollars that would be 5 years $255m or so.. I say yeah if JG got record money, why shouldn't Lamar, Lamar did wayyyy more on his first deal, than JG.

Where do you get 5yr $255m from? Because jimmy had the biggest and that is the biggest? so lamar only gets $102m guaranteed?
Sure he gets 2yrs $90m 2023-24, then 3yrs 165m 25-26-27 with $4m gtd each year.

My calculation was JG in 2018 was given a then record 5 year $137m. It was the highest deal in NFL history at the time.

So if Lamar got a similar deal, just for the sake of let's see what that would look like.. it would be 5 years $255m or so..

That's what the JG deal from 2018 would look like in todays money.. contracts have risen. I figure that amount cuz the highest aav now is Rodgers at $50.. what is 50 x 5.. it's $250m. So to beat Rodgers you would need more than $250m over 5 years.

in terms of gtd, i feel he's worth more than $230m. cuz Watson got $230m. If you chart contracts over time, it's just a straight ramp up. They only go up, not down. So yes we will see players, many, breaking the Watson $230m gtd barrier.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
My calculation was JG in 2018 was given a then record 5 year $137m. It was the highest deal in NFL history at the time.

So if Lamar got a similar deal, just for the sake of let's see what that would look like.. it would be 5 years $255m or so..

That's what the JG deal from 2018 would look like in todays money.. contracts have risen. I figure that amount cuz the highest aav now is Rodgers at $50.. what is 50 x 5.. it's $250m. So to beat Rodgers you would need more than $250m over 5 years.

in terms of gtd, i feel he's worth more than $230m. cuz Watson got $230m. If you chart contracts over time, it's just a straight ramp up. They only go up, not down. So yes we will see players, many, breaking the Watson $230m gtd barrier.

But that same year rodgers signed his extension 4yrs 134m and his current contract is 5yrs 186m so where does the $50m aav come from? I understand the 2 "void" years exist. I do not think using one of the most complex contracts as a basis is accurate.

Because watson got double what any other player had got up to that point you think that creates the new market? No, the russel wilson and kyler murray contracts set the market.
In fact Wilson set the market for a lamar jackson; 1st, two 2nds, 5th, and a 6th with a 5yr 242m 161gtd(124 at signing) contract.

Originally posted by jdt84_2:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
My calculation was JG in 2018 was given a then record 5 year $137m. It was the highest deal in NFL history at the time.

So if Lamar got a similar deal, just for the sake of let's see what that would look like.. it would be 5 years $255m or so..

That's what the JG deal from 2018 would look like in todays money.. contracts have risen. I figure that amount cuz the highest aav now is Rodgers at $50.. what is 50 x 5.. it's $250m. So to beat Rodgers you would need more than $250m over 5 years.

in terms of gtd, i feel he's worth more than $230m. cuz Watson got $230m. If you chart contracts over time, it's just a straight ramp up. They only go up, not down. So yes we will see players, many, breaking the Watson $230m gtd barrier.

But that same year rodgers signed his extension 4yrs 134m and his current contract is 5yrs 186m so where does the $50m aav come from? I understand the 2 "void" years exist. I do not think using one of the most complex contracts as a basis is accurate.

Because watson got double what any other player had got up to that point you think that creates the new market? No, the russel wilson and kyler murray contracts set the market.
In fact Wilson set the market for a lamar jackson; 1st, two 2nds, 5th, and a 6th with a 5yr 242m 161gtd(124 at signing) contract.

I just googled biggest NFL contracts. On Spotrac they show Rodgers as 3 years $150m and 50.7m aav.

Then it's $48.5m aav (Russ Wilson)
$46m aav (Kyler)
Mahomes and Watson around $45m

Contracts are made to be broken.. the highest deal isn't the best QB necessarily, it's just the most recent, newest deal. So if Lamar signs tomorrow I would expect $50+ ish.

I would expect record total money and gtd money, the newest guy gets the biggest.. if they are elite. I view Lamar as elite. Then someone will come along and beat Lamar shortly.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Daniel Jones.. he's not in Lamar's universe imo. Or at least give me odds on D Jones ever winning an NFL MVP or leading NFL in TD passes.

If JG can set contract records with his 2nd deal, why can't Lamar get a 2nd deal, without as much hassle.

The cost for another team is trading picks or signing which is two firsts, if you are going in like that, you aren't gonna bail out thanks to non gtd money, what would be the point, you would lose a ton of capital in the draft for a one or two year rental.. that's why I say you are all in or out here..

perhaps the solution is Lamar will simply play on the tag, like Cousins.

The 5yr $250 is not the hang up, jimmy only got gtd $61m and most of that was the 1st 2 years, they could cut him after year 2, cleanly after year 3. And he did not get his year 5.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
I just googled biggest NFL contracts. On Spotrac they show Rodgers as 3 years $150m and 50.7m aav.

Then it's $48.5m aav (Russ Wilson)
$46m aav (Kyler)
Mahomes and Watson around $45m

Contracts are made to be broken.. the highest deal isn't the best QB necessarily, it's just the most recent, newest deal. So if Lamar signs tomorrow I would expect $50+ ish.

I would expect record total money and gtd money, the newest guy gets the biggest.. if they are elite. I view Lamar as elite. Then someone will come along and beat Lamar shortly.

Then why did kyler and russ get less than watson in guarantees?

Originally posted by jdt84_2:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
I just googled biggest NFL contracts. On Spotrac they show Rodgers as 3 years $150m and 50.7m aav.

Then it's $48.5m aav (Russ Wilson)
$46m aav (Kyler)
Mahomes and Watson around $45m

Contracts are made to be broken.. the highest deal isn't the best QB necessarily, it's just the most recent, newest deal. So if Lamar signs tomorrow I would expect $50+ ish.

I would expect record total money and gtd money, the newest guy gets the biggest.. if they are elite. I view Lamar as elite. Then someone will come along and beat Lamar shortly.

Then why did kyler and russ get less than watson in guarantees?

You have a point here good question.. as I look at gtd money it's blowing the field out of the water. On Watson. Almost to the point where BAL probably suspects CLE did this to a div rival on purpose.

CLE probably knew they were all in on Watson, which they never should have been, but if they are in on him, they are all in, as they have to forfeit the draft picks. They aren't cutting ties, they are married to him. So why not guarantee the whole thing, is probably CLE's thinking.

So BAL may not want to pony up the gtd money on Jackson, they aren't mortgaging their drafts going forward on Lamar, that makes sense to me. However if I am Atlanta looking at Ridder / Heinicke, or Washington with Howell / Brissett, why draft the next Kinlaw, when you can kick those picks to BAL and get Lamar, and if you are giving the picks like CLE did on Watson, why not gtd the thing to seal the deal?

headline from Cleveland newspaper:

Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed $230M deal could end up costing the Ravens Lamar Jackson and shake up AFC North

perhaps they were 5D chessing this thing the whole time?
this is probably the only way they could beat Baltimore, they surely weren't doing it on the field

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2023/03/deshaun-watsons-fully-guaranteed-230m-deal-could-end-up-costing-the-ravens-lamar-jackson-and-shake-up-afc-north.html

Originally posted by jdt84_2:
The 5yr $250 is not the hang up, jimmy only got gtd $61m and most of that was the 1st 2 years, they could cut him after year 2, cleanly after year 3. And he did not get his year 5.

This is good convo I appreciate it

on JG he did end up collecting about 90% of the total value of the contract or $123m from SF. So we could have gtd as a team, much more of the deal, with no real ill effects, in his case.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Daniel Jones.. he's not in Lamar's universe imo. Or at least give me odds on D Jones ever winning an NFL MVP or leading NFL in TD passes.

If JG can set contract records with his 2nd deal, why can't Lamar get a 2nd deal, without as much hassle.

The cost for another team is trading picks or signing which is two firsts, if you are going in like that, you aren't gonna bail out thanks to non gtd money, what would be the point, you would lose a ton of capital in the draft for a one or two year rental.. that's why I say you are all in or out here..

perhaps the solution is Lamar will simply play on the tag, like Cousins.

My Mom told me to find someone who loves me the way you love Lamar.

In seriousness though, playing on the tag seems the most likely at this point. He seems to have completely botched any chance of drumming up trade interest absent some dramatic reductions in his asking price. If he keeps an actual agent and manages to stay healthy all year and carry his team to some playoff wins he probably gets closer to what he's asking for. Hard to give up a lot for someone who can't manage those things.

Originally posted by Midbay:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Daniel Jones.. he's not in Lamar's universe imo. Or at least give me odds on D Jones ever winning an NFL MVP or leading NFL in TD passes.

If JG can set contract records with his 2nd deal, why can't Lamar get a 2nd deal, without as much hassle.

The cost for another team is trading picks or signing which is two firsts, if you are going in like that, you aren't gonna bail out thanks to non gtd money, what would be the point, you would lose a ton of capital in the draft for a one or two year rental.. that's why I say you are all in or out here..

perhaps the solution is Lamar will simply play on the tag, like Cousins.

My Mom told me to find someone who loves me the way you love Lamar.

In seriousness though, playing on the tag seems the most likely at this point. He seems to have completely botched any chance of drumming up trade interest absent some dramatic reductions in his asking price. If he keeps an actual agent and manages to stay healthy all year and carry his team to some playoff wins he probably gets closer to what he's asking for. Hard to give up a lot for someone who can't manage those things.

well I mean, come on here, JG balled for 5 games and got the biggest deal in league history (at the time).. is that all it takes? guy won NFL MVP, and yes he didn't have that season in 2022, it was a few years ago, but he's done a lot in the NFL on a rook deal, he crushed it

maybe Daniel Jones had the right idea.. lay low for a few years, then play your best ball in the contract year