How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

He'll lead the league in completion percentage.

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
Stats prior to Harbaugh era are rather meaningless. Whether they are good or bad stats. We played in a lot of meaningless games and got blown out a lot. We had a lot of garbage time stats.

Not many drives were as you described... I from the SD blowout... 1 from the early KC blowout.. and what's to say other QBs don't have similar stats thanks to the similar circumstances? They do.

You could just go by the 2012 stats. You know.. the one that has Kaepernick at 29th in RZ performance.. while Alex is at 15th.

Or maybe we can all just stop this garbage already? I get that fans of Alex will find ways to follow what he does after leaving SF... I am one. But for those that are not fans of his? Why invest in threads to debate over him? Are we all not sick and tired of doing this for years already? Do we not already know perfectly well where everyone stands?

Originally posted by Joecool:
Yes it is and Alex's game to game passer rating is inconsistent.

Not as inconsistent as some of the perceived better QBs... what are you not getting there? There may have been 2 or 3 QBs all last season with better consistency game to game. I listed many that fans fawn over that were less consistent...

Originally posted by Joecool:
Yes it is and Alex's game to game passer rating is inconsistent.

While this may be true, I liked how consistently the Niners won with Smith. In fact, Smith had the second best winning percentage as a starter in the NFL the last two years combined. Kap? no. 7 (easy to remember,) and the best? Good ol' Aaron Rodgers. In the end, I like wins, because they're what matters and they are a great indicator of how a group of players is working together as a team under it's leadership. I liked the Niners style of smash-mouth defense, surgical special teams, and a relatively mistake free offense in the meme of three-yards-and -a cloud-of-dust, BECAUSE IT WON GAMES. I know that style is boring to many, and the new era of 30+ point games (on both sides of the ball) is a breath of fresh air. It does make for a fun show, but I'm always looking at the W-L column first.

It seems impossible that the Chiefs wont win 19 games. The only way they wont win 19 games is if they win 20 games because two other teams in the AFC go 16-0 and somehow have a better scoring differential (unlikely) and the chiefs have to play in wild card round.

A Smith will take the next step in his career and lead the Chiefs to 19 or 20 wins, throwing 0 interceptions (including pre-season and probowl)

BTW you forgot to put 17-20 wins as an option in the poll.

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
Stats prior to Harbaugh era are rather meaningless. Whether they are good or bad stats. We played in a lot of meaningless games and got blown out a lot. We had a lot of garbage time stats.

Not many drives were as you described... I from the SD blowout... 1 from the early KC blowout.. and what's to say other QBs don't have similar stats thanks to the similar circumstances? They do.

You could just go by the 2012 stats. You know.. the one that has Kaepernick at 29th in RZ performance.. while Alex is at 15th.

Or maybe we can all just stop this garbage already? I get that fans of Alex will find ways to follow what he does after leaving SF... I am one. But for those that are not fans of his? Why invest in threads to debate over him? Are we all not sick and tired of doing this for years already? Do we not already know perfectly well where everyone stands?

huh? i'm just saying during the harbaugh era all of our games were hotly contested and were meaningful. if alex has better rz stats in the harbaugh era than kap then so be it. i think he should because he has more experience.

the rz offense under kap will get better.

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
huh? i'm just saying during the harbaugh era all of our games were hotly contested and were meaningful. if alex has better rz stats in the harbaugh era than kap then so be it. i think he should because he has more experience.

the rz offense under kap will get better.

Oh, I agree in thinking it will get better. Kaep is the real deal, and I expect big things from him.

My point was, that I think it unfair that you wanted to discount the 2010 RZ performance. SF isn't the only team that gets the occasional scoring drive when a game is essentially out of reach.

Even IF we bothered to look closer...

Out of the 11 games Alex played in that year, 3 were wins, and can be eliminated from trash-time discussion. The Carolina game was close and that's when Alex got injured and left anyway. So that's 4 eliminated from discussion. Another 3 were very close games, so they shouldn't count as trash-time stats... So now, we are up to 7 eliminated. One TD drive against a blowout loss to SD does count. One TD drive also counts vs blowout loss to KC. Another late Rams game where our drive did matter in closing the gap to 5 with nearly 6 minutes remaining. So, we have 9 of 11 games where there was no trash-time application... and we have 2 trash-time plays total here.

What do you imagine the odds of being for every QB taking significant snaps to also have two RZ drives that benefited their numbers in trash-time?

But the real issue is this..

Someone points out something remotely good about Smith (2nd best in 2010 RZ stats) in order to suggest that he wasn't always some RZ reject.

... and of course, someone has to try and dismiss this stat because it doesn't fit what they have tucked away in their memory. I say, why bother? If you are not a fan of Smith, then just sit back and wait to see the record that nets SF a draft pick. Dude is gone from SF. There's really no need to talk and debate about what he did or didn't do. No need to check this thread and post daily about him.. as no games have even been played yet. No need to combat the posters that do respect him and wish him well.

It's just very strange and unfortunate that those happy to let him go from SF... can't quite let him go.

Originally posted by Joecool:
1. Very few if any despise Alex Smith. The debate starts when he is over-rated as a near elite or top 10 QB.
2. Nearly every evaluation about Alex from folks on this board is that he would be even better if he trusted his receivers and the trust with Vernon is repeatedly used as a prime example that he can trust a receiver if that receiver is good. Now think about it, which QB in the NFL wouldn't trust a TE who is one of THE best TE's in the league? It is not hard to trust that type of elite talent. However, the bigger question is, can Alex trust a non-elite talented target. The answer has been no. So, one can only conclude that a player needs to be elite in order for Alex to play well with that player. To keep saying that he needs that trust in order to play well is playing terrible odds and directly shows the grasping at his own ability.
3. Consistency has also been brought up about Alex's strength. His career and game to game production is FAR from consistent. The 2012 playoffs is Alex Smith in a nutshell. He could have a league best game one week but will stink it up the next.

but you are one of those few who despise him, right?

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by hofer36:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by kcfan11:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by kcfan11:

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
he just might..or

just end up like the past SF QBs traded to KC

Joe Montana says hi.

Yeah, I'll take two straight Playoff appearances any day! We're excited out here, this team is in many ways like yours before you got Harb. I believe Reid is in the same mold and knows what he's doing. I read somewhere that he liked Smith and wanted him before they both came to KC. This year is sorta like a year for both Reid and Smith to prove that they belong in the NFL. It has the makings to be something special, I haven't been this excited in years to watch football! Talented team with talented coaching staff. Sound familiar? It's definitely easy to be positive when you look at all these things.

BTW Alex is one of the best when it comes to winning percentage. He's in the top 3 the last 2 years. He might even be number 1 over-all if you combine the stats from those 2 years in winning percentage.

Lol..Winning percentage ?

That's a team stat

Here's an career average to get excited about..... 1.2 TDs a game...and the last two years raised that average

On this link it's a player stat.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/quarterback-winning-percentage

I'll take what he's done the last 2 years over all his other years with horrible coaching and lack of WR talent. He not only has a great head coach but also has the talent at WR that you guys lacked. Now that's exciting!

That is a break down from a team ranking...our kicker was scoring more points a game then alex averaged tds in 2011

Like I said..he will win your heart, then break it next...then repeat

I know your stance, and I don't wish to dispute it, but I don't think this statement as particularly damning.
One field goal = 3 points, so a QB must score 3 TDs to keep up? And for each TD, the kicker should score 1 more point.

I do agree with what I believe to be your point: that the team relied on Akers too much in 2011 to score field goals.

It will be interesting to see Smith's development with KC. Will he pick up his play where he left off before the concussion?
If he does, KC will be damn happy.

i meant by scoring was that Akers was averaging around 8.2 pts a game, where Alex was averaging 6 pts a game

Alex will be Alex..it all depends if the Chiefs Defense and special teams can play at a higher level.

if they do, then they will be good.

and during this time were the niners winning or losing games? was there qb making plays in the clutch?

to me, wins and clutch plays mean more than points scored

yes Akers was clutch...possibly could have gone undefeated last year if Akers played like he did in 2011

yeah i loved how akers hit delanie walker for the winning score vs the lions, and michael crabtree to set up chippie winning field gioal vs seahawks and vernon davis in the playoff game...

Originally posted by bunker:
It seems impossible that the Chiefs wont win 19 games. The only way they wont win 19 games is if they win 20 games because two other teams in the AFC go 16-0 and somehow have a better scoring differential (unlikely) and the chiefs have to play in wild card round.

A Smith will take the next step in his career and lead the Chiefs to 19 or 20 wins, throwing 0 interceptions (including pre-season and probowl)

BTW you forgot to put 17-20 wins as an option in the poll.

what an awesome post to bust your cherry on..and i got the sarcasm

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Oh, I agree in thinking it will get better. Kaep is the real deal, and I expect big things from him.

My point was, that I think it unfair that you wanted to discount the 2010 RZ performance. SF isn't the only team that gets the occasional scoring drive when a game is essentially out of reach.

Even IF we bothered to look closer...

Out of the 11 games Alex played in that year, 3 were wins, and can be eliminated from trash-time discussion. The Carolina game was close and that's when Alex got injured and left anyway. So that's 4 eliminated from discussion. Another 3 were very close games, so they shouldn't count as trash-time stats... So now, we are up to 7 eliminated. One TD drive against a blowout loss to SD does count. One TD drive also counts vs blowout loss to KC. Another late Rams game where our drive did matter in closing the gap to 5 with nearly 6 minutes remaining. So, we have 9 of 11 games where there was no trash-time application... and we have 2 trash-time plays total here.

What do you imagine the odds of being for every QB taking significant snaps to also have two RZ drives that benefited their numbers in trash-time?

But the real issue is this..

Someone points out something remotely good about Smith (2nd best in 2010 RZ stats) in order to suggest that he wasn't always some RZ reject.

... and of course, someone has to try and dismiss this stat because it doesn't fit what they have tucked away in their memory. I say, why bother? If you are not a fan of Smith, then just sit back and wait to see the record that nets SF a draft pick. Dude is gone from SF. There's really no need to talk and debate about what he did or didn't do. No need to check this thread and post daily about him.. as no games have even been played yet. No need to combat the posters that do respect him and wish him well.

It's just very strange and unfortunate that those happy to let him go from SF... can't quite let him go.

You know what. You guys can't argue that Andy Reid has had his eye on him for awhile even before he got to KC. That really speaks volumes to me, and as soon as Reid got a new gig he pulled the trigger and wanted Alex to lead his offense. What Alex did under Harbaugh furthered Reid's interest in him and made the decision a lot easier. I just watched a video of him slicing up a pretty good defense in Arizona and if we can get that type of performance from him, it will be like we struck gold. Especially with the playmakers we have, it will be really something special!

All of you that are negative about Alex Smith, go tell Andy Reid how horrible he is. As a matter of fact tell your coach 2 years ago. Were you guys saying the same thing even though Alex was winning games? It sounds like you guys are butt hurt that you guys were wrong or something.

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Oh, I agree in thinking it will get better. Kaep is the real deal, and I expect big things from him.

My point was, that I think it unfair that you wanted to discount the 2010 RZ performance. SF isn't the only team that gets the occasional scoring drive when a game is essentially out of reach.

Even IF we bothered to look closer...

Out of the 11 games Alex played in that year, 3 were wins, and can be eliminated from trash-time discussion. The Carolina game was close and that's when Alex got injured and left anyway. So that's 4 eliminated from discussion. Another 3 were very close games, so they shouldn't count as trash-time stats... So now, we are up to 7 eliminated. One TD drive against a blowout loss to SD does count. One TD drive also counts vs blowout loss to KC. Another late Rams game where our drive did matter in closing the gap to 5 with nearly 6 minutes remaining. So, we have 9 of 11 games where there was no trash-time application... and we have 2 trash-time plays total here.

What do you imagine the odds of being for every QB taking significant snaps to also have two RZ drives that benefited their numbers in trash-time?

But the real issue is this..

Someone points out something remotely good about Smith (2nd best in 2010 RZ stats) in order to suggest that he wasn't always some RZ reject.

... and of course, someone has to try and dismiss this stat because it doesn't fit what they have tucked away in their memory. I say, why bother? If you are not a fan of Smith, then just sit back and wait to see the record that nets SF a draft pick. Dude is gone from SF. There's really no need to talk and debate about what he did or didn't do. No need to check this thread and post daily about him.. as no games have even been played yet. No need to combat the posters that do respect him and wish him well.

It's just very strange and unfortunate that those happy to let him go from SF... can't quite let him go.

Excellent post! It seems some need to take their derision to KC just to keep the hate going. Sad.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Oh, I agree in thinking it will get better. Kaep is the real deal, and I expect big things from him.

My point was, that I think it unfair that you wanted to discount the 2010 RZ performance. SF isn't the only team that gets the occasional scoring drive when a game is essentially out of reach.

Even IF we bothered to look closer...

Out of the 11 games Alex played in that year, 3 were wins, and can be eliminated from trash-time discussion. The Carolina game was close and that's when Alex got injured and left anyway. So that's 4 eliminated from discussion. Another 3 were very close games, so they shouldn't count as trash-time stats... So now, we are up to 7 eliminated. One TD drive against a blowout loss to SD does count. One TD drive also counts vs blowout loss to KC. Another late Rams game where our drive did matter in closing the gap to 5 with nearly 6 minutes remaining. So, we have 9 of 11 games where there was no trash-time application... and we have 2 trash-time plays total here.

What do you imagine the odds of being for every QB taking significant snaps to also have two RZ drives that benefited their numbers in trash-time?

But the real issue is this..

Someone points out something remotely good about Smith (2nd best in 2010 RZ stats) in order to suggest that he wasn't always some RZ reject.

... and of course, someone has to try and dismiss this stat because it doesn't fit what they have tucked away in their memory. I say, why bother? If you are not a fan of Smith, then just sit back and wait to see the record that nets SF a draft pick. Dude is gone from SF. There's really no need to talk and debate about what he did or didn't do. No need to check this thread and post daily about him.. as no games have even been played yet. No need to combat the posters that do respect him and wish him well.

It's just very strange and unfortunate that those happy to let him go from SF... can't quite let him go.

Excellent post! It seems some need to take their derision to KC just to keep the hate going. Sad.

Actually, this makes KC games much more interesting to watch now.

Glad I have the Ticket.

Originally posted by kcfan11:
You know what. You guys can't argue that Andy Reid has had his eye on him for awhile even before he got to KC. That really speaks volumes to me, and as soon as Reid got a new gig he pulled the trigger and wanted Alex to lead his offense. What Alex did under Harbaugh furthered Reid's interest in him and made the decision a lot easier. I just watched a video of him slicing up a pretty good defense in Arizona and if we can get that type of performance from him, it will be like we struck gold. Especially with the playmakers we have, it will be really something special!

All of you that are negative about Alex Smith, go tell Andy Reid how horrible he is. As a matter of fact tell your coach 2 years ago. Were you guys saying the same thing even though Alex was winning games? It sounds like you guys are butt hurt that you guys were wrong or something.

Hey KCfan, welcome to the zone. Allow me to explain...

There's a decent percentage of the Niner fan base that are just critical of Smith regardless of what he does/doesn't do. The best way I can put it is this:

First impressions are everything in life to people. It's what we make judgments of people on, and even when evidence down the road points to the contrary, it is very difficult to overturn these judgments. Think of a best friend that turned on you.....how long it took you to even acknowledge it and *believe it*.

Now think of someone who was a d*** initially, and maybe changed for the better. He'll always have that stigma.

With Smith, a few years into his career a good # of 49er fan's impression of him was that he wasn't good. A combination of the 49ers not having a winning record probably multiplied by the fact that he was a #1 overall pick pretty much did him in. QBs for better or worse take the brunt of winning/losing regardless of outside factors.

At some point in 2009/2010, Smith was lost on the fanbase. There was a MNF in 2010 against the Eagles where a loud chant of "We want [David] Carr!" was shouted at Candlestick Park.

In my opinion if the 2011/2012 Smith performance magically showed up in 2008/2009, I think overall the guy is viewed far differently in SF and around the league.

This is my take. Although someone could say look at Mark Sanchez's first two years of straight AFC Championship game appearances, and then the last two years where it's been not as good, and now non stop criticism of the guy (that might just be a NY thing).

From where I see things, I believe that Kaepernick is the right choice not only because of the upside talent but perhaps even more importantly is that there is no baggage associated with him. Maybe Smith could have shed it forever had the Niners won the Super Bowl in 2011, but after losing that NFC Champ game against the Giants, it became apparent it would never go away.

Let's hope for a Drew Brees 2.0 situation out in Missouri. I'm a huge Smith fan and want all the best for him in his new gig.

Here's another take on this whole Smith situation:

He most likely would not have gotten much better in SF if he finished 2012 and kept going with us....all for mental reasons, nothing about offensive/defensive talent.

In KC, he will most likely flop or become much better. Seeing a carbon copy of 2011/2012 Smith I really don't see...

I'm banking on the latter. I could just be an eternal optimist, but I think that Reid gets it and will make sure AS gets what he needs to succeed. That means giving him more freedom to throw downfield as much as he's tailoring the offense to his strengths. That horribly brutal run on 3rd down towards the end of the first Seahawks game in 2012 I can not imagine ever happening again...

Another thing nobody talks about is Jamal Charles 5.5+ ypc without an elite OL, scheme and passing game. That might be the second most impressive RB accomplishment last year behind Peterson.