How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
^ Can't speak for Facebook.. I don't do that stuff. I hazard to say that no one likes and supports Alex as much as I do.. and I can honestly say that I am fine with how things turned out.

Would I have preferred to keep Alex and trade Kaep off? Yes.. probably so.. and I can easily see how that may not be the right decision.. but it could turn out to be. No one can truly say. What I can say is, I like and believe in Kaep well enough... I just like Alex more. But I don't mind adding, it has been definitely a double-your-fun season watching both SF and KC. So all in all, no hard feelings to bother with there. The problem with these threads is that there are about 5 posters that can't let go of the bitterness during the wars of old. They are either humiliated by Alex's successes.. or just angry at other posters from long ago disputes.

Not angry at all. I just want to point out false statements by some that try to justify a weak QB by a team stat.

BTW, the excuse of drops are tiring and false. The QBR factors in drops and does not count those passes against a QB. Alex's QBR, not so good. This is what I mean. All but one claim you have made about why Alex isn't producing the "way he is capable of" has been false and refuted. The ONE claim that is correct is that he does not turn the ball over.

but joe...i thought, per pst 4994 that...........

I'm officially done with the topic.

Originally posted by hofer36:

Originally posted by verb1der:

Originally posted by hofer36:

Originally posted by verb1der:

Originally posted by hofer36:
i posted a question on the kaepernick thread as to whther kaepernick could be considered an elite qb if he doesnt not put up rodgers or brees type numbers...the response was that he didnt have to....one poster said that elite was measured by kapernick besting rodgers (2X) brees and brady in head to head match ups...as you point smith has done so as well

To be fair, I was speaking of head to head "shootouts". Which Kaep displayed in his games in New England, throughout the playoffs, and week 1 of this season. Those are "elite" type games.

they are no more elite games than smith vs brees in 2011 playoffs, or smith vs rodgers in 2012 opener

During Smith's era, the consensus among experts and analysts was always "49ers will not win in a shoot out.". That is no longer the case. That's the biggest difference between the battles we are speaking of here.

To become "elite", one must be able to bring big guns to a gun fight. Kaep has proven that, why do you think he kisses his biceps all the time!

i would say the niners saints game was a shootout

The saints game was one of the most amazing games I've seen. But I wouldn't consider it a shootout, shootouts to me involve a lot of "whoa throws" by both QBs. The New England game last year vs Tom Brady is a perfect example, Kaep came fully loaded, everyone was like "WHOA".

That TD bomb to Randy Moss to open the game, oh my goodness.

Originally posted by verb1der:
The saints game was one of the most amazing games I've seen. But I wouldn't consider it a shootout, shootouts to me involve a lot of "whoa throws" by both QBs. The New England game last year vs Tom Brady is a perfect example, Kaep came fully loaded, everyone was like "WHOA".

That TD bomb to Randy Moss to open the game, oh my goodness.

Yes that was a "WHOA" game from Kap and so were the Seattle and Indy games. I prefer the NE "WHOA" type of game and that hasn't happened in a long time. You can compare those types of games like the one Campbell had with the Browns against the Ravens and Keenum with the Texans against the Colts. It shows that a team can have success with a new QB at the helm because the other team has very little tape on them. Teams have plenty of tape on Kap and the "WHOA" that you speak of is more like, WHOA if we stick with our real weapon Frank the Tank we have a better chance at winning.

Our run game is crazy good, oh my goodness!

Originally posted by Joecool:
Not angry at all. I just want to point out false statements by some that try to justify a weak QB by a team stat.

BTW, the excuse of drops are tiring and false. The QBR factors in drops and does not count those passes against a QB. Alex's QBR, not so good. This is what I mean. All but one claim you have made about why Alex isn't producing the "way he is capable of" has been false and refuted. The ONE claim that is correct is that he does not turn the ball over.

Dude... that's stupid. There is a stat called TEAM DROPS... and that stat is based on accurate passes bouncing off the hands of receiving targets. It is not false at all to state that KC is top 10 in drops... because they are. Your efforts to point out false statements are a joke. You saying you will stay away from this topic and coming back a short time later the same day... that says it all. Your grand evidence to refute is flimsy at best.

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:

Originally posted by Joecool:
Not angry at all. I just want to point out false statements by some that try to justify a weak QB by a team stat.

BTW, the excuse of drops are tiring and false. The QBR factors in drops and does not count those passes against a QB. Alex's QBR, not so good. This is what I mean. All but one claim you have made about why Alex isn't producing the "way he is capable of" has been false and refuted. The ONE claim that is correct is that he does not turn the ball over.

Dude... that's stupid. There is a stat called TEAM DROPS... and that stat is based on accurate passes bouncing off the hands of receiving targets. It is not false at all to state that KC is top 10 in drops... because they are. Your efforts to point out false statements are a joke. You saying you will stay away from this topic and coming back a short time later the same day... that says it all. Your grand evidence to refute is flimsy at best.

The false part is why you claim the reason why Alex isn't a top 15 QB is because of the pieces around him. I simply stated that QBR doesn't hold drops against QB's whereas the NFL rating does. Alex is still terrible in QBR. He near bottom in the league in just about every category. I can understand if he was in the middle or in the 15 rank area and then I can see if parts around him improve...but he's playing not playing well at all. He has always been an inconsistent QB.

There is a 9-0 team and all that has been mentioned in this thread is the terrible OL, or lazy WR, or RB that can't run strong...

really?

Originally posted by Joecool:
The false part is why you claim the reason why Alex isn't a top 15 QB is because of the pieces around him. I simply stated that QBR doesn't hold drops against QB's whereas the NFL rating does. Alex is still terrible in QBR. He near bottom in the league in just about every category. I can understand if he was in the middle or in the 15 rank area and then I can see if parts around him improve...but he's playing not playing well at all. He has always been an inconsistent QB.

There is a 9-0 team and all that has been mentioned in this thread is the terrible OL, or lazy WR, or RB that can't run strong...

really?

If you've watched any of the Chiefs games it's true that their OL is terrible at both run and pass blocking, so it's hard to really take QBR seriously. If you think Alex isn't playing well at all, how has Kap looked to you?

Originally posted by Skull-Leader:

Originally posted by Joecool:

The false part is why you claim the reason why Alex isn't a top 15 QB is because of the pieces around him. I simply stated that QBR doesn't hold drops against QB's whereas the NFL rating does. Alex is still terrible in QBR. He near bottom in the league in just about every category. I can understand if he was in the middle or in the 15 rank area and then I can see if parts around him improve...but he's playing not playing well at all. He has always been an inconsistent QB.

There is a 9-0 team and all that has been mentioned in this thread is the terrible OL, or lazy WR, or RB that can't run strong...

really?

If you've watched any of the Chiefs games it's true that their OL is terrible at both run and pass blocking, so it's hard to really take QBR seriously. If you think Alex isn't playing well at all, how has Kap looked to you?

Wrong thread.

- 98

Originally posted by 11OnDaField1NMyHeart:

Originally posted by billbird2111:

I don't see how Alex held us back in playoff games when our punt returner played give up the rock in the only NFC Championship game he got a chance to play in. You do realize we would have won that game if Harbaugh didn't have Johnny McFumble returning kicks, right?

I'll admit that KW is the main reason we lost that game. I've mentioned that every single time. But why don't you guys bring up his 3rd down conversion rate that game. 1-12. Or how about how he had 1 completion to a WR the ENTIRE game. How dafaq do you go an entire game and only complete 1 pass to WR's?

He didn't lose the game but he sure as hell didn't do much to help us win it. That's the way he's always been and that's why IMO, he's an average ass QB.

Easy. You double cover Michael Crabtree which left the 49ers with ZERO other receivers of any quality at all. If you watched that game, I mean watched something other than just the football, you would have seen that there was no one getting open at all. The NYG at that time had a very good secondary and they showed up in that game.

Originally posted by Skull-Leader:

Originally posted by Joecool:
The false part is why you claim the reason why Alex isn't a top 15 QB is because of the pieces around him. I simply stated that QBR doesn't hold drops against QB's whereas the NFL rating does. Alex is still terrible in QBR. He near bottom in the league in just about every category. I can understand if he was in the middle or in the 15 rank area and then I can see if parts around him improve...but he's playing not playing well at all. He has always been an inconsistent QB.

There is a 9-0 team and all that has been mentioned in this thread is the terrible OL, or lazy WR, or RB that can't run strong...

really?

If you've watched any of the Chiefs games it's true that their OL is terrible at both run and pass blocking, so it's hard to really take QBR seriously. If you think Alex isn't playing well at all, how has Kap looked to you?

It is an OL that is leading a 9-0 team. Jamaal Charles is 3rd in rushing. They are leading a 9-0 team. See how that can work when the details are not included.

Of course their OL has issues but so does the QB. I already stated 5 other QB's with more sacks than Alex who are playing better. Could it just be that Alex is not playing well? Maybe it is because Reid is not calling the fantasy plays for him.

And in circles we go. No need to discuss more.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by Skull-Leader:

Originally posted by Joecool:
The false part is why you claim the reason why Alex isn't a top 15 QB is because of the pieces around him. I simply stated that QBR doesn't hold drops against QB's whereas the NFL rating does. Alex is still terrible in QBR. He near bottom in the league in just about every category. I can understand if he was in the middle or in the 15 rank area and then I can see if parts around him improve...but he's playing not playing well at all. He has always been an inconsistent QB.

There is a 9-0 team and all that has been mentioned in this thread is the terrible OL, or lazy WR, or RB that can't run strong...

really?

If you've watched any of the Chiefs games it's true that their OL is terrible at both run and pass blocking, so it's hard to really take QBR seriously. If you think Alex isn't playing well at all, how has Kap looked to you?

It is an OL that is leading a 9-0 team. Jamaal Charles is 3rd in rushing. They are leading a 9-0 team. See how that can work when the details are not included.

Of course their OL has issues but so does the QB. I already stated 5 other QB's with more sacks than Alex who are playing better. Could it just be that Alex is not playing well? Maybe it is because Reid is not calling the fantasy plays for him.

And in circles we go. No need to discuss more.

You're right no need to discuss more. Alex is long gone and we have our QB as well as two 2nd round picks now. Thanks for those picks and being a key instrument in turning this franchise around! Time to let go, there is no reason to come to this thread anymore and make everyone here who is happy for you respond to all the negativity I spew here.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by 11OnDaField1NMyHeart:

Originally posted by billbird2111:

I don't see how Alex held us back in playoff games when our punt returner played give up the rock in the only NFC Championship game he got a chance to play in. You do realize we would have won that game if Harbaugh didn't have Johnny McFumble returning kicks, right?

I'll admit that KW is the main reason we lost that game. I've mentioned that every single time. But why don't you guys bring up his 3rd down conversion rate that game. 1-12. Or how about how he had 1 completion to a WR the ENTIRE game. How dafaq do you go an entire game and only complete 1 pass to WR's?

He didn't lose the game but he sure as hell didn't do much to help us win it. That's the way he's always been and that's why IMO, he's an average ass QB.

Easy. You double cover Michael Crabtree which left the 49ers with ZERO other receivers of any quality at all. If you watched that game, I mean watched something other than just the football, you would have seen that there was no one getting open at all. The NYG at that time had a very good secondary and they showed up in that game.

that stacked the box and left man in the secondary..that's why we couldn't run

Fox specifically details turnover margin during the playoffs, but the same holds true during the regular season as well. In 2011, teams that were plus-1 or better won 157 of 200 such games — a winning percentage of .785.

No surprise, the Eagles were 3-0 when they won the turnover battle, and 3-6 when they lost.


While many would argue defense was this team's biggest problem, we've maintained all along it was turnovers first and foremost. The Eagles had a 6-3 record and allowed 16.6 points per game when they gave the ball away two times or less, but were 2-5 and allowed 25.6 when coughing it up on three or more occasions. Still, plenty are not convinced the defense couldn't have done more.


As for the defense's part in this, the league average was 29.4 points allowed. By comparison, it was 20.4 PPG when there were two giveaways or fewer. Interesting that the difference for both the Eagles and the entire NFL was exactly the same — nine points.

Don't take our word for it then. Just ask Bill Cowher, who was questioned about turnover margin days prior to winning his first Super Bowl with the Pittsburgh Steelers, notably in his 14th season as head coach.

"The biggest thing that you can control is how you protect the football," Cowher said. "We put more of a concentrated effort on talking about that. On defense, you play hard, get to the ball and try to strip the ball or get an interception. We certainly talk about that. But those can come in bunches, and you can go through periods where you do all of those things and the other team is just taking care of the ball and you don't get a turnover."


Here is a chart of the NFL over a 10 years span. This illustrates the turnover margin and win percentage.

I bet this thread is longer than any thread on an actual Chiefs message board lol.

Originally posted by verb1der:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by verb1der:
I don't consider anything that Joe posts as "bashing". Bashing to me is like "alex sucks! blah blah blah" without any logical argument.

What's being explained is Alex's style of play. Which is highly respectable, because it's enough to beat all the mediocre teams in the league. But when it comes to championship football, a QB must have an "attacking" mentality. That is the only thing that separates Alex from the upper echelon QBs, imo.

As I said above, it's very easy to be negative toward any player in the NFL. It's sort of like criticizing a batter for only batting 300...so much fail! My use of bashing is a continued argument that does not address answers given. Smith played so well under Harbaugh that had he continued as the starter he may have been the most efficient QB in the NFL last year. This year he is leading an offense with a line averaging three years in experience...only because Albert has six. His offense is new to the team, line is very porous, WRs are marginal...but it's all Smith's fault? Then it must be his fault that they are winning, no?

I agree with your post. However that is the only thing Alex Smith can boast, "efficiency". Now can efficiency alone win a championship? That is the big question.

That's the million dollar question for all QBs...can they win the big game? Smith did really well against the Saints, out shooting Brees fro the win. In the NYG game it was in line to be a close finish until KW gave the ball away in terrible field position and at terrible times. So sad because we did not get to see a good, clean close to the game.

We will have to see if A Smith is as good as the Saints game or just an average guy in the playoffs. For years I have felt that his intelligence and calm demeanor would win out in a big game...still waiting to see.

Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
Fox specifically details turnover margin during the playoffs, but the same holds true during the regular season as well. In 2011, teams that were plus-1 or better won 157 of 200 such games — a winning percentage of .785.

No surprise, the Eagles were 3-0 when they won the turnover battle, and 3-6 when they lost.


While many would argue defense was this team's biggest problem, we've maintained all along it was turnovers first and foremost. The Eagles had a 6-3 record and allowed 16.6 points per game when they gave the ball away two times or less, but were 2-5 and allowed 25.6 when coughing it up on three or more occasions. Still, plenty are not convinced the defense couldn't have done more.


As for the defense's part in this, the league average was 29.4 points allowed. By comparison, it was 20.4 PPG when there were two giveaways or fewer. Interesting that the difference for both the Eagles and the entire NFL was exactly the same — nine points.

Don't take our word for it then. Just ask Bill Cowher, who was questioned about turnover margin days prior to winning his first Super Bowl with the Pittsburgh Steelers, notably in his 14th season as head coach.

"The biggest thing that you can control is how you protect the football," Cowher said. "We put more of a concentrated effort on talking about that. On defense, you play hard, get to the ball and try to strip the ball or get an interception. We certainly talk about that. But those can come in bunches, and you can go through periods where you do all of those things and the other team is just taking care of the ball and you don't get a turnover."


Here is a chart of the NFL over a 10 years span. This illustrates the turnover margin and win percentage.

Yes. The low turnovers on offense and the number of turnovers and points of turnovers the defense is getting is the key ingredient as to why KC is winning. Remember in 2011, the teams that beat SF were the ones that didn't turn the ball over against us.

This is where Alex comes into play. Even if KC plays a good team, Alex's style will still keep the game close...it's just the way he plays. However, if the opponent doesn't turn the ball over, KC offense will not score enough to win since a lot of their points come off turnovers. The downside of all this is that the score is close against weaker teams also, but weaker teams usually find a way to lose.