Niners -10 :)
Colts +6.5 at home against GB
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2012 NFL betting thread
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Oct 7, 2012 at 8:24 AM
- blizzuntz
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Oct 7, 2012 at 8:30 AM
- Knowledge
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i teased Packers to -1 and Giants to -2
Oct 7, 2012 at 8:56 AM
- pdizo916
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i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.
Oct 7, 2012 at 9:02 AM
- blizzuntz
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Originally posted by pdizo916:i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.
They will give up on run early and our base D/prevent will give up yards in middle of field during 2nd half
Oct 7, 2012 at 9:19 AM
- 9erStorm
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Originally posted by pdizo916:
i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.
Most of that coming in the 4th quarter.
Oct 7, 2012 at 12:13 PM
- Knowledge
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Originally posted by Knowledge:
i teased Packers to -1 and Giants to -2
looking good so far
Oct 7, 2012 at 4:14 PM
- Knowledge
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Originally posted by Knowledge:
Originally posted by Knowledge:
i teased Packers to -1 and Giants to -2
looking good so far
f**king Packers
Oct 7, 2012 at 4:40 PM
- pdizo916
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Originally posted by pdizo916:
i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.
lmao!!!
Oct 10, 2012 at 5:55 AM
- blizzuntz
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49ers are -5 against NYG
Oct 10, 2012 at 6:39 AM
- Knowledge
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Originally posted by blizzuntz:
49ers are -5 against NYG
that line tells me a easy Niners win
Oct 10, 2012 at 7:03 AM
- blizzuntz
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Originally posted by Knowledge:Originally posted by blizzuntz:49ers are -5 against NYG
that line tells me a easy Niners win
I hope so, but I don't bet on my own team, especially since the history behind teams that have CRUSHED teams the way te Niners have the last 2 wins does not Bode well for the niners.
#1Posted: 10/9/2012 6:39:38 PM
Guys -
Long time viewer but I don't play/post often. I'm a numbers guy and remember key angles that I think can provide an edge. A few years back I remember the poster MrBator who posted a trend of teams who win back to back games by scoring 30+ points and while also allowing less than 10 points. This is hard to do two games in a row much less 3 games in a row! After doing this twice, in their third game these teams have significantly failed to cover at a staggering rate. Credit goes to Mr. Bator's old post (scroll to the bottom) for this history starting from 1999 - 2009. Teams in this situation went 3-14-1 ATS during this time period.
I did some digging to see how this worked in 2010 and 2011 and have the following additional games:
In 2010 the Green Bay Packers beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite.
In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the NY Jets 45-3 then beat the Bears 36-7. Their next game they beat the Aaron Rodgers less Packers 31-27 but didn't cover the 14 point line.
In 2010 the San Diego Chargers beat the Chiefs 31-0 then beat the 49ers 34-7. Their next game they lost SU as an 8 point favorite to the Bengals who had nothing to play for 34-20.
In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the Bill 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21.
I didn't find any such scenarios in 2011.
All said with the research of Mr. Bator combined with the 2010 additions teams are 3-17-2 ATS given this criteria.
Why am I posting this now? Two weeks ago the 49ers beat the Jets 34-0 and followed that up last week with a 45-3 blowout of the Bills. No doubt that they are playing great ball and they have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time but as a 5.5 point dog I am loading up on the Giants this week.
BOL to you guys and if you are out there MrBator thank you for your past write-ups they have been very helpful!
Oct 17, 2012 at 3:56 PM
- blizzuntz
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Damn, system bet against the Niners last week comes through unfortunately.
Sf -7.5.... Pretty big spread against a scrappy Seattle
Sf -7.5.... Pretty big spread against a scrappy Seattle
Oct 17, 2012 at 4:46 PM
- 49AllTheTime
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Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Damn, system bet against the Niners last week comes through unfortunately.
Sf -7.5.... Pretty big spread against a scrappy Seattle
I hate this spread !!!!!!!!!
Oct 17, 2012 at 5:09 PM
- JTsBiggestFan
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We didn't cover more than 2 points last year .
Taking away the Ginn returns in game 1, we won 19-17 both times
Taking away the Ginn returns in game 1, we won 19-17 both times
Oct 17, 2012 at 7:26 PM
- ninerlifer
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We need to get this as an Official Pin!!!!! It's about time we got a thread started...can't believe I haven't thought of this years ago!!
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