Another draft came and went, and this was pretty unique. As a Niners' fan, it lacked some of the punch that previous drafts held, as the Niners only had 5 selections. However, there is still much to discuss about the picks, where they fit, how they project, and the impact on the team and league.
As a starting point, I do not evaluate the draft on traded picks for players. I only evaluate the selection of the draft selection when the team is on the clock. I thought the Trent Williams trade was a stroke of genius. You have to roll the dice on a player of Williams' honors. Even if he is not the Trent Williams of the past, but is a 80 percent version, giving up a third and fifth for a team that is built to win now is a really brilliant move. I hope Niners' fans do not hold him up as a superstar player. The recent big-named moves from last season did not match the hype (Ford, Alexander, Sanders). All contributed, but not at the level of previous years and teams. Buyer beware on big expectations for veteran players, especially guys over 30 years old! However, good luck. Mr. Williams!
So, here is my evaluation of the Niners' draft, based solely on their choices while the team was on the board:
#14- Javon Kinlaw- DT, South Carolina- I like Kinlaw as a prospect. He was ranked 21st overall on my board. Really terrific college player, and fills a void in the Niners's defense with the departure of Buckner. Looked excellent at the Senior Bowl until he was injured. I think he will be a really good player for the 49ers. These are all the positives. Here is my criticism. This is a salary cap move, and I am not sure this is the best strategy with draft capital. Is Kinlaw going to be as good as Buckner? I sincerely doubt he will play at that level. So, you are swapping DTs with a drop in play. I understand the salary cap is always going to be an issue. To me, this is a treading of water move for the team, which for some is just fine. Not for me, and here is why.....the Niners missed a golden opportunity to solve their biggest problem....the passing game. The team has lacked a star wide receiver for a LONG time, and had the opportunity to solve this issue and really help Jimmy G by selecting the best player on the board.......in Ceedee Lamb. The team did well in selecting Deebo last year, but Lamb is even better, and is a game changer. Best value in drafting is matching the best player on the board with team need. Never pass on a blue chipper to fill a need. The Cowboys played this smart, selecting Lamb at 17. He wasn't a huge need....but you can't pass on stars. In this case, for the Niners, Lamb was a blue chip player at the biggest position of need. Missed opportunity for me. I liked the trade down from #13 to #14, but we are going to toss those extra assets away in the next pick.
#25- Brandon Aiyuk- WR, Arizona State- I also like Aiyuk as a player. He was WR6 on my board, and had an excellent year with ASU this past season. He is terrific with the ball in his hands, especially in the return game. Shanahan obviously thought Aiyuk was worth trading up 6 slots and giving away two mid-rounders in the process. I think Aiyuk may have been on the board at 31 anyways, and there were more talented players chosen after him. I didn't like the move, and think we have a nice number three WR in Aiyuk. He is NOT on the same level as Lamb.
#153 - Colton McKivitz- OT/G- West Virginia- Tough, smart OT/G, McKivitz is an experienced player who is a bit older (24 years old) than most draftees. Although he performed admirably in the Big 12 Conference, his offseason was really not impressive. He struggled at the Senior Bowl, and then tested poorly at the combine. His SPARQ score was at the 17th percentile level. His shuttle time, which is about the surest sign of future success for OL at the next level, was dreadfully slow. My guess is that they hope he can be a swing tackle, but will have to shift him inside to guard at some point.
#190- Charlie Woerner- TE- Georgia- Woerner will have one job for the Niners....be the third TE. He is strictly a blocking TE, having very limited productivity in catching passes for the Bulldogs (34 career catches). He had 9 catches last year. He is a really good blocker, but the team traded up to a guy who ESPN did not even have a picture listed on their draft site. I am guessing Woerner would have completely slipped through the draft, but the Niners didn't want to take that chance. There were simply a LOT of better players on the board.
#217- Jauan Jennings- WR- Tennessee- Jennings was a highly productive WR for the Vols over his career. Big target, and good with the ball in his hands. But, this dude is slow....really slow. Ran a 4.72 at the combine, tested as an 8th percentile WR in his SPARQ score, and is...really, really slow. I just don't know where you put a slow, unathletic guy on the field in the NFL. Maybe they are going to stack 20 pounds on him and make him a move TE.
So, in retrospect, the team picked up a solid interior defender, a third WR who is good at the return game, a backup OT/G with limited athleticism, a blocking TE, and a super-slow WR. I just didn't like the draft at all. I guess the silver lining is that the best two picks were the first two picks.
Shanahan picks guys that fit his scheme. That is something to be admired. However, if defensive coordinators adjust to his schemes, the talent he has acquired is simply below average for NFL play.
My picks (always on the clock, so no cherry-picking)
#14- Ceedee Lamb-WR. Huge playmaker that changes the game.
#25- Josh Jones- OT- Terrific college OT, with superb PFF grades, was a superstar Senior Bowl performer. Might start Day One for the Cardinals.
#153- KJ Hill- WR- Stud slot WR. Another stud Senior Bowl performer. Do you see a trend here? If you shine during the Senior Bowl, the arrow has to go up.
#190- Markus Bailey- LB- This kid is a beast at LB. Captain, big-time gamer, All-Academic Star; has to overcome 2 ACLs. Love everything about him, and lives about 4 miles away from me.
#217- Eno Benjamin- RB- Someone has to explain to me why this kid was on the board in the 7th round. Can run, catch. Just a stud!
Question you might ask: How would the Niners fill the void of Buckner without selecting Kinlaw? Good question. The draft capital lost in the Aiyuk trade (which killed me) would have allowed the team to select a DT in the mid-rounds, and my bulleye target was Baylor DT Bravvion Roy, who I had graded alongside KJ Hill, and would have selected at number 156. Roy ended up selected at 184. I think Roy would have been a starting quality addition to the team, competing with DJ Jones right away.
Overall, I'd give the Niners a C grade. Kinlaw was my favorite value pick by the team. I just discounted them in bypassing Lamb at 14, and then going for a lesser talent in Aiyuk 11 picks later, having to throw in draft capital along the way (ouch!!!). Plus, we still need a young, stud OT for down the road because we have no idea how Williams is going to play out. He might be great, mediocre, or really mediocre this season. The last three picks were incredibly uninspiring to me.
I hope I am wrong! I hope that all five picks become multi-year All Pros. I just don't see much greatness from this class. We will see in a few years.
-MD
[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 4, 2020 at 7:14 AM ]
Javon Kinlaw is also a bluechip prospect (maybe not according to MD) and with the loss of Buckner, at a position of need.
