Bill Walsh agreed. He often liked to trade down and acquire more picks. Of course sometimes it's better to trade up and sometimes 'stand pat'. But in general, high picks are overvalued and mid round picks are under-valued.
Nobel prize winning economist says teams get better value by trading down
.... study shows that teams overvalue early draft picks. "We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued....."
Richard Thaler, who changed thinking about the NFL draft, wins Nobel Prize in economics
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/10/09/richard-thaler-who-changed-thinking-about-the-nfl-draft-wins-nobel-prize-in-economics/
" .... multiple psychological factors shows that teams overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teams provided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets ....."
"The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121
https://repository.upenn.edu/oid_papers/170/
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Trade Down: Nobel prize winning economist says teams get better value by trading down
May 12, 2019 at 12:50 PM
- MK_Ultra
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May 12, 2019 at 1:11 PM
- Phoenix49ers
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May 12, 2019 at 1:34 PM
- MK_Ultra
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Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
May 12, 2019 at 1:49 PM
- Heroism
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Teams who trade down and pick the right players get better value.
Few teams pick the right players.
Few teams pick the right players.
[ Edited by Heroism on May 12, 2019 at 1:50 PM ]
May 12, 2019 at 1:55 PM
- Phoenix49ers
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Originally posted by MK_Ultra:
Traded up to get the best receiver of all time.
May 12, 2019 at 1:56 PM
- domingo
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Actually, Bill Walsh clearly stated in the San Francisco Chronicle on the Monday after his great 1986 trade down draft that he did NOT plan on trading down going into the draft and that he never planned to do so. It was spontaneous and unplanned and that that was his year to year draft strategy. He simply did not like the players who were available when it came his time to pick in 86. He also said that "if you like a player, go ahead and take him" in reference to not being over obsessed with consensus value. In my opinion going into a draft planning to trade down is a Donahue/Ballke type strategy and look at the rosters those two produced.
May 12, 2019 at 2:13 PM
- MK_Ultra
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The statistical argument for trading down in the draft
https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/3/23/18185344/the-statistical-argument-for-trading-down-in-the-draft
".... the NFL Trade Value Chart overestimates the value of the first 50 (or so) picks in the draft — and that the effect is more and more exaggerated the closer we are to the first pick in the draft. This indicates that the NFL Trade Value Chart overestimates the value of the #1 pick by about 300%.
Also the NFL Trade Value Chart underestimates the value in the middle rounds between the 3rd to 6th rounds, meaning that these picks are more valuable to teams than the chart would indicate, while top-50 picks are less valuable than the Chart says they are. "
"The general rule of thumb is that teams with first round or early second-round picks should be happy to trade down in the draft if the terms of the trade reflect the NFL Trade Value Chart, and that teams holding picks in the middle rounds (3 - 6) should be hesitant about trading them away to move into the top-50 if the terms of the trade are based on the Chart."
No Team Can Beat the Draft
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/#fn-11
".... teams with top-five picks in the draft correctly identify the player who goes on to have the best career only 10.3 percent of the time, a success rate that only gets worse as things progress deeper into the draft. So a team that believes it can 'beat the market' .... can end up doing more harm than good if it trades away lower picks to move up in the draft. This is especially the case if a team uses Johnson's unrealistically optimistic chart as justification for such behavior."
https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/3/23/18185344/the-statistical-argument-for-trading-down-in-the-draft
".... the NFL Trade Value Chart overestimates the value of the first 50 (or so) picks in the draft — and that the effect is more and more exaggerated the closer we are to the first pick in the draft. This indicates that the NFL Trade Value Chart overestimates the value of the #1 pick by about 300%.
Also the NFL Trade Value Chart underestimates the value in the middle rounds between the 3rd to 6th rounds, meaning that these picks are more valuable to teams than the chart would indicate, while top-50 picks are less valuable than the Chart says they are. "
"The general rule of thumb is that teams with first round or early second-round picks should be happy to trade down in the draft if the terms of the trade reflect the NFL Trade Value Chart, and that teams holding picks in the middle rounds (3 - 6) should be hesitant about trading them away to move into the top-50 if the terms of the trade are based on the Chart."
No Team Can Beat the Draft
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/#fn-11
".... teams with top-five picks in the draft correctly identify the player who goes on to have the best career only 10.3 percent of the time, a success rate that only gets worse as things progress deeper into the draft. So a team that believes it can 'beat the market' .... can end up doing more harm than good if it trades away lower picks to move up in the draft. This is especially the case if a team uses Johnson's unrealistically optimistic chart as justification for such behavior."
May 12, 2019 at 2:20 PM
- MK_Ultra
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Originally posted by Heroism:
Teams who trade down and pick the right players get better value.
Few teams pick the right players.
Few teams pick the right players if they 'stand pat' ..... therefore by trading down they get extra darts to throw
May 12, 2019 at 2:31 PM
- English
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Originally posted by MK_Ultra:Originally posted by Heroism:Teams who trade down and pick the right players get better value.
Few teams pick the right players.
Few teams pick the right players if they 'stand pat' ..... therefore by trading down they get extra darts to throw
So, that means more players to cut later in the year. Nobel prize winning economists build NFL teams?
May 12, 2019 at 2:36 PM
- MK_Ultra
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Originally posted by domingo:
Actually, Bill Walsh clearly stated in the San Francisco Chronicle on the Monday after his great 1986 trade down draft that he did NOT plan on trading down going into the draft and that he never planned to do so. It was spontaneous and unplanned and that that was his year to year draft strategy. He simply did not like the players who were available when it came his time to pick in 86. He also said that "if you like a player, go ahead and take him" in reference to not being over obsessed with consensus value. In my opinion going into a draft planning to trade down is a Donahue/Ballke type strategy and look at the rosters those two produced.
Please post a link to that article regarding the 1986 draft. You are wrong about his 1986 draft strategy. Walsh & McVay intentionally planned on acquiring more 3rd rd picks. I still remember watching that draft and I remember that he said they liked the players in the third round and so they intentionally acquired more picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. "That was a brilliant draft — a legendary draft — and Walsh showed his guts and imagination. He showed he was miles ahead of other personnel people in the league. That is the kind of draft that sets up a franchise for years. "
Walsh's legacy to the Niners was the draft
https://www.vaildaily.com/sports/walshs-legacy-to-the-niners-was-the-draft/
Re: "if you like a player, go ahead and take him" = he did say that, but he was also famous for trading down
Re: trade down is a Donahue/Ballke type strategy = Donahue didn't trade down much, but he was an major idiot. Baalke couldn't evaluate players. That doesn't negate the truth that generally high picks are over-valued and 3rd-6th rd picks are under-valued
May 12, 2019 at 2:42 PM
- MK_Ultra
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Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by MK_Ultra:
Originally posted by Heroism:
Teams who trade down and pick the right players get better value.
Few teams pick the right players.
Few teams pick the right players if they 'stand pat' ..... therefore by trading down they get extra darts to throw
So, that means more players to cut later in the year. Nobel prize winning economists build NFL teams?
That means you get more chances to find the next Tom Brady or George Kittle or Jesse Sapulo, or Dwight Clark or Dexter Manley, Bo Jackson, Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Richard dent, Deacon Jones, Roger Staubach, Bart Starr, etc, etc, etc all very late round picks who turned out much better than expected
May 12, 2019 at 2:59 PM
- SanDiego49er
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I think that's obvious. If you trade down a few things happen.
~ You pick up additional picks. This helps you because you bust on some. But because you have more picks you hit on some instead of having limited picks where you need to really hit on all of them to have a good draft. This is very underrated IMO.
~ You don't over pay players. Because you traded down obviously you are picking later at the given slots. You don't bust your cap if you bust on a player. If you pick top 3, top 5, top 10 it's pretty much a disaster if you don't hit a home run on the player drafted. If you bust it breaks your cap and team for years to come.
~ You don't panic and reach for so called "game changers" at the top of the draft. You just fill needs with the best available player as the draft falls to you and comes to you. Many of the so called top tier guys bust, get hurt, get lazy, get injured and never pan out. If you just let it fall to you at the later slots the draft just fills out your needs at best available players at positions of need rather than reaching for a game changing prospect. Most of which never work out anyway. Some of them do but many of them don't.
This is also why teams that pick last like the Patriots do well. You can trade down or pick last. Either way you fill needs as the draft falls to you and it doesn't break your cap if you bust on a few of them the way it does if you pick top 3, top 5, top 10. Drafting later or trading down is hugely underrated IMO.
~ You pick up additional picks. This helps you because you bust on some. But because you have more picks you hit on some instead of having limited picks where you need to really hit on all of them to have a good draft. This is very underrated IMO.
~ You don't over pay players. Because you traded down obviously you are picking later at the given slots. You don't bust your cap if you bust on a player. If you pick top 3, top 5, top 10 it's pretty much a disaster if you don't hit a home run on the player drafted. If you bust it breaks your cap and team for years to come.
~ You don't panic and reach for so called "game changers" at the top of the draft. You just fill needs with the best available player as the draft falls to you and comes to you. Many of the so called top tier guys bust, get hurt, get lazy, get injured and never pan out. If you just let it fall to you at the later slots the draft just fills out your needs at best available players at positions of need rather than reaching for a game changing prospect. Most of which never work out anyway. Some of them do but many of them don't.
This is also why teams that pick last like the Patriots do well. You can trade down or pick last. Either way you fill needs as the draft falls to you and it doesn't break your cap if you bust on a few of them the way it does if you pick top 3, top 5, top 10. Drafting later or trading down is hugely underrated IMO.
May 12, 2019 at 3:06 PM
- btthepunk
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Dude would probably be the worst GM in the league and wouldn't last more than 3 seasons.
May 12, 2019 at 3:25 PM
- Giedi
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Originally posted by MK_Ultra:
Originally posted by domingo:
Actually, Bill Walsh clearly stated in the San Francisco Chronicle on the Monday after his great 1986 trade down draft that he did NOT plan on trading down going into the draft and that he never planned to do so. It was spontaneous and unplanned and that that was his year to year draft strategy. He simply did not like the players who were available when it came his time to pick in 86. He also said that "if you like a player, go ahead and take him" in reference to not being over obsessed with consensus value. In my opinion going into a draft planning to trade down is a Donahue/Ballke type strategy and look at the rosters those two produced.
Please post a link to that article regarding the 1986 draft. You are wrong about his 1986 draft strategy. Walsh & McVay intentionally planned on acquiring more 3rd rd picks. I still remember watching that draft and I remember that he said they liked the players in the third round and so they intentionally acquired more picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. "That was a brilliant draft — a legendary draft — and Walsh showed his guts and imagination. He showed he was miles ahead of other personnel people in the league. That is the kind of draft that sets up a franchise for years. "
Walsh's legacy to the Niners was the draft
https://www.vaildaily.com/sports/walshs-legacy-to-the-niners-was-the-draft/
Re: "if you like a player, go ahead and take him" = he did say that, but he was also famous for trading down
Re: trade down is a Donahue/Ballke type strategy = Donahue didn't trade down much, but he was an major idiot. Baalke couldn't evaluate players. That doesn't negate the truth that generally high picks are over-valued and 3rd-6th rd picks are under-valued
I think a trade down strategy will work if you have good scouts and that the coaching and scouting staff are confident in their player evaluations. A factor in player evaluations, says Bill Walsh "Finding the Winning Edge" Page 149 paragraph 8:
Free agency, a shortened draft and an urgency to win [now] affects [the draft in the following manner]
Compared to the past, players from smaller colleges will be less likely to make NFL rosters. The shortened draft (seven rounds -- down from...17 rounds) and the reduced number of players invited to..the combine increase the possibility that teams will overlook such players.
...this is illustrated by the fact that under the circumstances, small college players such as NFL greats Terry Bradshaw, Ken Anderson, and Jackie Smith may not have been drafted. The obstacles facing small college players may be even more acute for athletes from the predominantly black colleges. Historically, black colleges have provided some of the most talented players in the NFL, including such Hall of Fame members as Willi Brown (Grambling), Art Shell (Maryland-Eastern Shore), and Willie Lanier (Morgan State).
The key to a good trade down scenario in my opinion is finding a small college player that the coach and his staff have evaluated as a player they would take in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, but most everybody in the NFL regard as a mid to late round pick.
Finding the Winning edge page 112 paragraph 8: As the draft neared, we did all the research we could and decided that Joe would not be taken before the fifth round if at all. Everyone knew he had poise, but they were put off by his slight appearance, inconsistent performance at Notre Dame, and some believed, [he] had a relatively weak arm. We selected Joe in the Third. Note: that was drafting Joe *earlier* than where they thought Joe would go (which was in the fifth round.) So a trade *up* is as valuable a strategy as a trade *down.*
[ Edited by Giedi on May 12, 2019 at 3:26 PM ]
May 12, 2019 at 3:31 PM
- Phoenix49ers
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Originally posted by SanDiego49er:I think that's obvious. If you trade down a few things happen.
~ You pick up additional picks. This helps you because you bust on some. But because you have more picks you hit on some instead of having limited picks where you need to really hit on all of them to have a good draft. This is very underrated IMO.
You have more picks to spend on lower quality/higher risks prospects. You're not sitting there at #1 and passing up on Andrew Luck or Myles Garrett because you want to play the craps table later on in the draft. You take the elite prospects when you can get them.
~ You don't over pay players. Because you traded down obviously you are picking later at the given slots. You don't bust your cap if you bust on a player. If you pick top 3, top 5, top 10 it's pretty much a disaster if you don't hit a home run on the player drafted. If you bust it breaks your cap and team for years to come.
That may have been true once, isn't anymore. The new CBA slotted rookie salaries so that nobody is getting Bradford level contracts. If you whiff on an early pick its obviously not great, but not fatal either.
~ You don't panic and reach for so called "game changers" at the top of the draft. You just fill needs with the best available player as the draft falls to you and comes to you. Many of the so called top tier guys bust, get hurt, get lazy, get injured and never pan out. If you just let it fall to you at the later slots the draft just fills out your needs at best available players at positions of need rather than reaching for a game changing prospect. Most of which never work out anyway. Some of them do but many of them don't.
Many of the top tier prospects also become dominant NFL players and true game-changers. Your odds of finding a top end player are best in the early 1st round and drop precipitously as the draft goes on.
This is also why teams that pick last like the Patriots do well. You can trade down or pick last. Either way you fill needs as the draft falls to you and it doesn't break your cap if you bust on a few of them the way it does if you pick top 3, top 5, top 10.
In 2001 when Belichick was picking 6th in the draft, he didn't trade down. He stood pat and took the top prospect available in Richard Seymour who went on to have a huge role for several Patriots SB teams.
In the average draft class, you have 15-20 true 1st round caliber prospects. If you're picking late 20s then its not a big deal to trade down, you're not missing out on any elite caliber prospects.