I am editing my previous Best 50 Board thread t(and 11 pages that go with it) to spare the board with numerous MadDog threads. It is the night before the draft, and this is my primer going into the greatest weekend of the year:
First, all seems to be quiet regarding the QB carousel, but that will change soon. I fully expect Josh Rosen to be traded in the hours before the draft, setting up Kyler Murray to be picked at one (which is the right move for them). The Niners will probably select Bosa, and then the fun will begin. Expect a number of trades in the top ten to acquire Haskins, Jones and Lock. QBs tend to fly off the board quickly, and this season should be no different. Teams simply can't afford to wait to see if their guy will be the last QB on the draft board. Rarely do they have two prospects side by side and simply wait it out to see if their guys slips to their slot.
I do expect the Niners to call about moving their 36th overall to climb back into the late first to acquire a second starter, either in the secondary of at WR. Look for targets such as AJ Brown, Darnell Savage, Nasir Adderley in that trade up. I can't see them making a play at DK Metcalf if he slides down the board. Doesn't seem the best fit for Shanahan's offense.
This draft is stocked with DTs (which the team does not need), Safeties (which the team needs badly), and some pretty good WRs and TEs. The order for RBs could be all over the place, and the sweet spot for a run seems to be in the middle-late third round, if you ask me.
Individuals who might fall further than expected: Sweat, Gary, Mack Wilson, Jonah Williams, Deionte Thompson, Taylor Rapp. Players who might surprise with an early selection: Savage, Kaleb McGary, Chris Lindstrom, Ben Banogu.
My picks for the draft will be: Bosa at number two overall, and either AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, of Jeffery Simmons at number 36. At least one of these guys should be on the board. As for their third rounder, there should be a ton of talent on the board at that point, including some talented WRs, safeties, Will backers, and interior OL.
What is going on with Alabama? While Alabama pumps out a number of draft prospects every year, including in 2019, the school is going to see some of their more noticeable players drop further than expected. I don't know what is in the drinking water in Tuscaloosa, but their prospects have stunk up the testing process for the draft. Many of them have flat out flunked the process. Outside of Quinnen Williams and Christian Miller, the rest of these guys really struggled: Jonah Williams, Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, Mack Wilson, Deionte Thompson, Ross Pierschbacher, Irv Smith, Jr., Saivion Smith, Isaiah Buggs. Meanwhile, Penn State and Michigan are pumping out guys testing toward the top of their positional grouping.
Couple bonus notes on Alabama: Teams are going to have to make hard calls regarding Jonah Williams and Josh Jacobs, While Williams appears to be the most Pro-ready player on their roster, his testing should freak out GMs. Ranking 112th overall in offensive line testing, at the SPARQ 18th percentile is bad. Worse, the best measure of future success for NFL offensive linemen is the short shuttle. Williams scored in the 41st percentile. Buyer beware, the guy looks like a finished product that simply does not have the juice to be a star NFL player. I still think he will be a reliable player, but not an elite prospect. We will see.
As for Josh Jacobs, he tested in the 19th percentile, which surprised many people. However, this showed on film. While Darrell Henderson racked up 27 carries for 20+ yards or more in 2018, Josh Jacobs had exactly....1 carry for 20+ yards in 2018. That is brutal. That is a scary number for a guy perceived to be the number one back in this draft.
As for Mack Wilson, somebody has to explain to me why he is considered a top 100 prospect. I just don't get it at all.
Special note: Draft websites are hedging their bets on numerous controversial draft prospects, and they are walking a dangerous line. Stick to your guns and don't play down the middle. If you think DK Metcalf has some major questions marks, and your write-ups detail those issues, then don't whitewash those issues by grading him as a top prospect. If Andy Isabella is your top graded WR ever in college football (wink, wink PFF), he should be rated as a top WR prospect (if he passes the off-season test, which Isabella did). Similar note for Rashan Gary...if you place a mediocre grade on him for his work in college, why would you assign him as a top prospect for the NFL? Be fearless, don't waver to appease the masses.
Day Three Players I Love: Give me a couple of these guys, and I am a happy camper: Blake Cashman, Drue Tranquil, Cole Holcomb, Ben Burr-Kirven are all backers who can really run, and would be guys competing for the Will position on the team. Give me one of these three interior OL: Connor McGovern, Hjalte Froholdt, Tanner Farmer. How about some super productive, late 3rd day or priority free agent WRs in Jakobi Myers and Antoine Wesley (he obliterated Isaiah Johnson in their matchup this year). Give me a stud blocking TE in Trevon Wesco or Foster Moreau (he blocks like an OL). Love me some DT Michael Dogbe and Utah S Marquise Blair. and Rutgers S Saquan Hampton. Some of my favorite RBs in this draft will be selected on Saturday: Trayveon Williams (RB1 for me), Devine Ozigbo, Alexander Mattison (nobody is talking about him, but he can flat out ball). Most, if not all of these guys should on the board at the start of Day Three. All of these guys are ballers who love to play.
This is NOT a mock draft. This is also NOT a 49ers draft board. This is simply how I grade them as players at the next level.
April 24, 2019 My top 50 picks going into the draft:
2019 NFL Draft Best Board
Player School Position
1 Nick Bosa Ohio St DE
2 Quinnen Williams Alabama DT
3 Josh Allen Kentucky Edge
4 Kyler Murray Oklahoma QB
5 Ed Oliver Houston DT
6 Andre Dillard Washington St OT
7 Brian Burns Florida St Edge
8 Jeffery Simmons Mississippi St DT
9 TJ Hockenson Iowa TE
10 AJ Brown Mississippi WR
11 Hakeem Butler Iowa St WR
12 Christian Wilkins Clemson DT
13 Devin White LSU LB
14 Montez Sweat Mississippi St DE
15 Clelin Ferrell Clemson DE
16 Byron Murphy Washington CB
17 Dexter Lawrence Clemson DT
18 Andy Isabella UMass WR
19 Marquise Brown Oklahoma WR
20 Chris Lindstrom Boston College G
21 Johnathan Abram Mississippi St S
22 Garrett Bradbury NC State C
23 Darnell Savage Maryland S
24 Nasir Adderley Delaware S
25 Dwayne Haskins Ohio St QB
26 Kaleb McGary Washington OT
27 Dalton Risner Kansas St OT
28 Juan Thornhill Virginia S
29 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Florida S
30 Drew Lock Missouri QB
31 Devin Bush Michigan LB
32 Jerry Tillery Notre Dame DT
33 Jonah Williams Alabama G
34 Greedy Williams LSU CB
35 Noah Fant Iowa TE
36 Parris Campbell Ohio St WR
37 JJ Arcega-Whiteside Stanford WR
38 Cody Ford Oklahoma G
39 Zach Allen Boston College DE
40 N'Keal Harry Arizona St WR
41 Taylor Rapp Washington S
42 Jawaan Taylor Florida OT
43 Erik McCoy Texas A&M C
44 Miles Boykin Notre Dame WR
45 Justin Layne Michigan St CB
46 Chase Winovich Michigan Edge
47 Anthony Nelson Iowa DE
48 Rashan Gary Michigan DE
49 Amani Hooker Iowa S
50 Maxx Crosby Eastern Michigan Edge
.
AS WRITTEN LAST MONTH-------------
For now, here is my Best Board of the top 50 players in the draft for me. This is NOT a mock draft. This is also NOT a 49ers draft board. This is simply how I grade them as players at the next level. Couple notes: I do not have one RB graded as a top 50 player in this draft. To me, there are a bunch in the 51-100 area, but all of these guys have major issues that suppress their value to me. I also do not feel high about quarterbacks in this draft class (and for all of my draft flaws, I am pretty good at projecting QBs....the past four years have been Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield as QB1s in each class). In my opinion, there is only one star in this class, Kyler Murray. I also think very highly about the safety class, although some of these cats are so athletic that they might end up as corners on the edge or in the slot.
Some shifts in thinking: I really love Hakeem Butler, but had him originally as WR4 because of occasional ugly drops. I have bumped him up to WR2, because I think some of these might be correctable (some might disagree). I also have done the same with Devon White, who I still believe is an overrated prospect (some say Tampa at five is the pick, which would be WAY too high in my opinion). However, I also feel his tackling issues can be mostly corrected with coaching, helping him throttle down before approaching a ball carrier.
Special note: I have projected Jonah Williams and Cody Ford as guards in the NFL. Simmons ACL makes a tough eval because you never know how they will rebound. For the sake of argument, let's just say he comes back to full strength.
As always, this is one man's opinion. Feel free to ask questions, debate and more. Can't believe we are less than two weeks away.
-MD
April 12, 2019 NFL Draft Best Board
Player School Position
1 Nick Bosa Ohio St DE
2 Quinnen Williams Alabama DT
3 Josh Allen Kentucky Edge
4 Kyler Murray Oklahoma QB
5 Ed Oliver Houston DT
6 Christian Wilkins Clemson DT
7 Brian Burns Florida St Edge
8 Andre Dillard Washington St OT
9 Jeffery Simmons Mississippi St DT
10 TJ Hockenson Iowa TE
11 Jonah Williams Alabama G
12 Garrett Bradbury NC State C
13 AJ Brown Mississippi WR
14 Hakeem Butler Iowa St WR
15 Montez Sweat Mississippi St DE
16 Clelin Ferrell Clemson DE
17 Byron Murphy Washington CB
18 Devin White LSU LB
19 Dexter Lawrence Clemson DT
20 Andy Isabella UMass WR
21 Marquise Brown Oklahoma WR
22 Kaleb McGary Washington OT
23 Chris Lindstrom Boston College G
24 Dalton Risner Kansas St OT
25 Johnathan Abram Mississippi St S
26 Cody Ford Oklahoma G
27 Jerry Tillery Notre Dame DT
28 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Florida FS
29 Greedy Williams LSU CB
30 Noah Fant Iowa TE
31 Dwayne Haskins Ohio St QB
32 Darnell Savage Maryland S
33 JJ Arcega-Whiteside Stanford WR
34 Devin Bush Michigan LB
35 Zach Allen Boston College DE
36 Nasir Adderley Delaware S
37 Parris Campbell Ohio St WR
38 N'Keal Harry Arizona St WR
39 Justin Layne Michigan St CB
40 Jawaan Taylor Florida OT
41 Taylor Rapp Washington S
42 Erik McCoy Texas A&M C
43 Chase Winovich Michigan DE
44 Anthony Nelson Iowa DE
45 Blake Cashman Minnesota LB
46 Rashan Gary Michigan DE
47 Drew Lock Missouri QB
48 Juan Thornhill Virginia S
49 Amani Hooker Iowa S
50 Drue Tranquil Notre Dame LB
I am hoping that AJ Brown of Hakeem Butler is at 36. That would be a fairly realistic best case scenario. My personal draft would more than likely have:
Round 1. Bosa
Round 2. AJ Brown or Butler
Round 3. The best safety on the board
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 24, 2019 at 8:22 PM ]
Great work as usual.
Great work as usual.