Roberto Aguayo

Originally posted by NinerSickness:

Remember when everyone trashed Oakland for taking Janikowski w/ the 17th pick? Well, it turns out that was one of the best picks in the first round. In fact, if I could do it over again, I'd take Janikowski over Julian Peterson.

A great, HOF-caliber kicker for almost 20 years > a pro-bowl LB who fades out after 8. Do you realize how many games are decided by kickers?

This guy is a must-have.

A kicker lasting that long isn't unheard of but Seabass has been great for the Raiders. That being said you're right, I don't think you can put a price on a good reliable kicker these days. Dawson was one of the few kickers not to miss an extra point and might have a year or two left.

I was hoping Tucker wouldn't get tagged by Baltimore because he's one of the best kickers in the league.

Please be there by the 5th round

Originally posted by NinerSickness:

But you're typically not going to get an Adam Vinatieri from going after an UDFA kicker.

What you're saying is like saying, "Compare Phillip Rivers to Kurt Warner. One was the 4th pick overall'; the other was an UDFA. CLEARLY you get better bang for yer buck if you go after the UDFA."

If the Niners had a better kicker in SB 47, they'd have a 6th trophy.

If the 49ers had a better WR....a better CB....a healthy Justin Smith....you can go all day.


Lots of kickers that thrive in the NFL who were undrafted or late round picks. Look back 10 years and see the Top 5 in accuracy each year and typically 2 or 3 were undrafted.

We assume the average kicker will attempt 30 kicks in a given season, the variation in number of makes ranges from 22.3 at Walsh's success rate to 29.0 at Vinatieri's. Realistically then, the difference between the best kicker in the league and worst kicker in the league in 2014 can be estimated at approximately 21 points.

However, outliers can be volatile over a small sample size, so it makes more sense to look at kickers in terms of groupings. When split into two groups and normalized as above, the top 16 kickers would have made 26.8 kicks out of 30, with the bottom 15 kickers making 24.1. The difference between above and below-average kickers is a mere nine points, or just over half a point per game.

But the data is a more complicated than it initially appears. The top 16 kickers by accuracy attempted 68 kicks from 50+ yards, connecting on 48 of them – a 70.5% success rate. The bottom 15 kickers attempted 80 kicks from the same range, making only 45 of them, good for 56.3% accuracy. When the kicks from 50+ yards are removed from the data, the difference between top-half kickers and bottom-half kickers is a mere 7% – 92.5% to 85.4%.

When modifying the annualized numbers for this data, the difference in points scored is reduced to just over 6 points per season – 27.8 field goals made for the top 16 kickers versus 25.6 made kicks for the bottom 15. Thus, the primary difference in the quality of kicker is not their accuracy within 50 yards, but their ability to score from beyond that distance. This ability to score from distance should be where teams focus when drafting kickers, because the data supports the conclusion that a team can find a capable kicker for shorter distances without any meaningful drop-off in production.

With 148 kicks attempted from over 50 yards last season, the average kicker was utilized 4.8 times from this distance. The difference between the top 16 kickers and bottom 15 kickers in number of makes over 4.8 kicks is 0.74 kicks per season – meaning that because of the low utilization rate at these distances, a top kicker generates an extra 2.2 points per season on average.

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2015-nfl-draft/2015/04/21/drafting-kickers-dont-do-it/


Kickers also tend to be very up and down, no matter where they were or werent drafted. The most accurate kicker can be near the bottom of the NFL the next season.

Many teams and fans believe that if they can draft an elite kicker, it could make the difference during critical moments of a season. However, in the last three years, the only kicker to place in the top 5 in accuracy more than once is Dan Bailey of the Cowboys, who accomplished the feat in 2012 and 2013. In fact, Walsh, who if you remember from earlier was the least accurate qualifying kicker in 2014, actually placed fourth in accuracy in 2012, showing just how volatile kickers can be from season to season.

With Aguayo we arent even talking about a guy with a huge leg. Very accurate kicker but not a guy who booms it, only attempted like 5 kicks over 50 yards in college. I just dont see the value.




Give me Ross Martin of Duke later in the draft. Another accurate kicker that has proven to be able to hit it from deep, connecting on 8 of 10 50+ yard field goals. He could be had in the 6th round. Brad Craddock of Maryland is another guy I brought up in an earlier mock.

Cook in the 1st, Aguayo in the 2nd. Championship!

Originally posted by 94949er:
Cook in the 1st, Aguayo in the 2nd. Championship!

Grab a few extra picks from trading down & throw Nassib, Ryan Kelly, Nkemdiche & Doctson in there, and you've got yourself a legendary draft!

Originally posted by NinerSickness:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Compare Janikowksi and Adam Vinatieri over their careers. One was a free agent, one was a 1st round pick and Vinatieri has been more accurate. Look at Josh Brown who has bounced around the NFL but has almost the same career average as Janikowski.

But you're typically not going to get an Adam Vinatieri from going after an UDFA kicker.

What you're saying is like saying, "Compare Phillip Rivers to Kurt Warner. One was the 4th pick overall'; the other was an UDFA. CLEARLY you get better bang for yer buck if you go after the UDFA."

If the Niners had a better kicker in SB 47, they'd have a 6th trophy.

do not waste your time on Phoenix, he just pure dumb.. he thinks all those samples of his often happens in the NFL..

Originally posted by 9moon:

do not waste your time on Phoenix, he just pure dumb.. he thinks all those samples of his often happens in the NFL..

Right because it makes sense for a team with needs on OL and DL to invest an early pick on a kicker in a draft deep with OL and DL talent.


You can find a perfectly suitable kicker later on in the draft while addressing the team's major needs early on.


Call me crazy but I'd rather find a starting OL, DL or a QB than a kicker who could be marginally better than someone taken 4 rounds later.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

You can find a perfectly suitable kicker later on in the draft while addressing the team's major needs early on.

You can find a "perfectly suitable" any position later in the draft; you can't necessarily find a great one.

The Niners have plenty of young players who are just "ok." They need more GREAT players like Aguayo.

Originally posted by NinerSickness:

You can find a "perfectly suitable" any position later in the draft; you can't necessarily find a great one.

The Niners have plenty of young players who are just "ok." They need more GREAT players like [b]Aguayo[/b].

Who is to say he is going to be "GREAT?"


Janikowski was terrible as a rookie and spent most of his career outside the Top 5 in accuracy, season in and season out. He's a career 80% kicker, barely Top 40 in alltime accuracy.


There are more than a dozen active kickers with better career accuracy than Janikowski. Most of them taken in the 6th round or later.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Who is to say he is going to be "GREAT?"


Janikowski was terrible as a rookie and spent most of his career outside the Top 5 in accuracy, season in and season out. He's a career 80% kicker, barely Top 40 in alltime accuracy.

Kicking in the bay area is also harder than kicking in domes as you know. You can't compare kicking accuracy 1 to 1.

And I don't mind if he struggles as a rook; the Niners aren't doing anything next year anyway.

Oh, and who is to say he's going to be great? The team who drafts him in the 2nd or 3rd round is.

Originally posted by NinerSickness:

Kicking in the bay area is also harder than kicking in domes as you know. You can't compare kicking accuracy 1 to 1.

And I don't mind if he struggles as a rook; the Niners aren't doing anything next year anyway.

Oh, and who is to say he's going to be great? The team who drafts him in the 2nd or 3rd round is.

And good luck to them because I just dont see it being the 49ers.

you see where the problem is..

Phoenix here fully believe that ANY (QB, DL, OL) that he feels we should draft will END up better than Arguayo.. what he doesn't see is the big picture.. where this kid can just be the great kicker for us for the next 15 years..

I respect your decision (phoenix) if you just dont find this kid as a great kicker, then I know why you would not draft him early.

but the fact is, when there's a great player regardless of what position is available for you to take, you just don't pass the guy up..

Originally posted by 9moon:

you see where the problem is..

Phoenix here fully believe that ANY (QB, DL, OL) that he feels we should draft will END up better than Arguayo.. what he doesn't see is the big picture.. where this kid can just be the great kicker for us for the next 15 years..

I respect your decision (phoenix) if you just dont find this kid as a great kicker, then I know why you would not draft him early.

I dont think any kicker short of the NFL's version of Steph Curry being automatic from 60 yards out is worth more than a 4th round pick.


The stats show that the overall difference between the top kicker and the middle of the pack kicker in terms of points is pretty small.

Janikowski was a 1st rounder yet youve got a bunch of late round and undrafted guys who have been more accurate than him over the course of their careers, Phil Dawson included.


I'd be quite content to see them take Brad Craddock in the 6th round, a guy who if anything is underrated and he could do a good job for years to come.

but the fact is, when there's a great player regardless of what position is available for you to take, you just don't pass the guy up

So if there was a great punter you'd take them in the 2nd round? How about the best long snapper college football has ever seen?

Am I missing something? Why is Aguayo that much better than someone like Ross Martin from Duke? Martin was 4-4 from 50+ while Aguayo was 1-3.
Or Ka'imi Fairbairn who didn't miss from inside 40 yards and his long was 60 yards. Aguayo is super consistent from under 40 but I would much rather have a kicker that could bomb from 55+ and then work on his consistency. He could also compete with Pinion for touchback duty. And it wouldn't take a second round pick to get them.

Originally posted by KID9R:

Am I missing something? Why is Aguayo that much better than someone like Ross Martin from Duke? Martin was 4-4 from 50+ while Aguayo was 1-3.
Or Ka'imi Fairbairn who didn't miss from inside 40 yards and his long was 60 yards. Aguayo is super consistent from under 40 but I would much rather have a kicker that could bomb from 55+ and then work on his consistency. He could also compete with Pinion for touchback duty. And it wouldn't take a second round pick to get them.

Ross. Craddock. Fairbairn. All good options that could be taken in the 6th round. All very good kickers in their own right.