Originally posted by KRS-1:
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Aldon performed out on the field while Roby got lit up like a Christmas tree this past season.
He did not. He had a burn rate of 10 percent while in press man or off man coverage.
Skewed stat. He didn't play a ton of press, more off man than press. And his burn % in zone was pretty bad.
I try to keep this as classy as possible but comments like "lit up like a Christmas tree " and "Skewed stat" hit a nerve. All those back and forth over those stats is out of control and is getting flat out ridicioulus. Especially when talking about DB stats.
Without the whole tape and a full understanding about the scheme they played in those stats are complete nonsense.
Here is an example:
What you see here is Kyle Fuller vs. Devin Street.
If Street runs any other route it would be a completion. But because of the play call Street runs a 5 yrd out, Fuller has timer to recover and makes a deflection. This deflection lowers Fullers burn rate and increases his overall pass deflection rate.
Now lets take a closer look at those CB Metric stats everyone on here is talking about.
The SIP Burn % the author uses there is actually his adjusted SIP burn %.
- SIP Burn % is named as such because it removes screens and pass interference penalties.
- Adjusted Burn % uses the SIP Burn % and then
ATTEMPTS to adjust for how often a DB was targeted at the different depths. If a DB was mostly targeted underneath due to scheme, the formula
ATTEMPTS to compensate for that to create an "average passing attack" that the DBs would face.
- Burn % is the number without any manipulation – pass interference counts as a completion for this stat.
To me a pass interference equals a completion.
Here are the burn percentages from this years Top 5 CB without any manipulation.
- Kyle Fuller Burn% 32.43
- Darqueze Dennard Burn% 33.33
- Jason Verrett Burn% 45.00
- Justin Gilbert Burn% 48.00
- Bradley Roby Burn% 54.90
To take this up a notch here are the YPC ( yards per completion ) and YPA ( yards per attempt ) numbers.
- Kyle Fuller YPC 9.42 YPA 13.83
- Darqueze Dennard YPC 7.08 YPA 17.98
- Jason Verrett YPC 14.47 YPA 16.89
- Justin Gilbert YPC 10.67 YPA 13.70
- Bradley Roby YPC 9.04 YPA 10.65
By no means is Roby a perfect prospect at this point in his career but everyone should keep in mind that :
1. It is fun to look at those stats but without the tape complete nonsense.
2. That Roby excels in man coverage. His burn percentage was bad while in ZONE and on the defensive side of the ball Ohio State´s scheme and game plan was a complete mess. Especially last season. Here is an article about it
http://www.elevenwarriors.com/2013/12/30986/ohio-state-football-lack-of-defensive-identity-cost-buckeyes.
3. Burn percentage while in man coverage - Roby 10 percent, Gilbert 16 percent, Fuller 16 percent, Verrett 34 percent, ( I dont have Dennards burn rate ).
[ Edited by DeUh on Apr 24, 2014 at 9:55 PM ]