MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Actually the Watt over Smith pick is the biggest misconception out there. What he initially advocated was trading the 1st and 3rd (turned out to be Smith and Culliver) and whatever else it would have taken to move up for PP. So he was actually for bypassing both Smith AND Watt for PP.

And no, he was not a fan of the Bowman pick either. Said it wasnt good value for a player that was ill suited for the 3-4. Same analysis for Kaep but in terms of the offense.

While I'm not sure on exactly where he fits in here, I remember some serious advocation of Blaine Gabbert as well.

Originally posted by fryet:
MadDog, it would be fun if you posted in the grading of the 2010 draft and compare your picks to Baalke. I don't remember who you picked, and considering that Baalke did an A+ draft, chances are he beat you that year. But it would still be fun to see how well you did draft in 2010.

One other thing that would be interesting to see. We can all agree that the 49er organization has access to more information than a draftnik does. Yet, I wonder if more information at times actually causes poorer decisions since you may put more value in hidden information than what the player produced on the field. What does it say about the experts if a draftnik can beat them?

I am pasting my draft from the past few years. This was embedded inside the Draft War Room Thread About Baalke and Harbaugh drafting ability.

Here was my last three drafts based on my board and team needs at each pick:2010 NFL Draft
1. Iupati (I graded him as the eighth best player in the draft...probably too low).
1. Dez Bryant
2. Morgan Burnett
3. Owusu-Ansah
6. Doug Worthington
6. Cody Davis
6. Jeff Owens
7. Dorin Dickerson

2011 NFL Draft: Here were my post draft notes I posted in the "Redo" thread (I did not trade for Kaepernick in this draft)
1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

2012 NFL Draft
1. Peter Konz
2. Mohammed Sanu
4. Malik Jackson
5. Vick Ballard
6. Antonio Allen
6. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work
7. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work

Recap analysis: I loved my first three picks in 2010. The rest have done little to nothing. In 2011, I hit the jackpot with Watt, but probably blew it with Kaepernick (I had faith in Harbaugh and Smith). I do love my fourth rounders through seventh from Cannon through Sanzenbacher. Missed on Hunter, but hit very well on Cannon, Taylor, Rogers, and especially Johnson, who has been terrific for the Seahawks. In 2012, I believe my draft will hold up well with Konz, Sanu and a studly Ballard leading the way. Once again, you hope to hit on as many as possible and some years turn out better than others.

People can debate the 2010 class, but I would probably give a slight nod to Baalke (The outstanding Bowman pick in the third made up for the disasterous pick of Mays), but I think Iupati, Bryant and Burnett made a strong draft class for me.

I think it is pretty obvious that Baalke's 2011 draft class beat mine so far (this class was a grand slam for him), even though I thought I performed much better than the street with Watt anchoring this class. The entire class made an NFL roster in 2011, except for Chinasa, and I love Jeron Johnson late in the 7th. He is a very good player for the Seahawks. Hudson has a ton of potential, but his injury killed off 2012. He will the man delivering to Alex Smith this year.

Based on the 2012 class, I think my draft is superior to far superior over Baalke's so far. Konz played almost the entire year, and will start this year at center. Mohammed, before going out with injury, had 4 TD's in his last three games. And, Vick Ballard was a monster, better than any selection from Baalke's 2012 class.

Wait...I thought your "Big Board" was merely a reflection of where you thought players would be picked rather than your personal opinion of who the best player is. Can you clarify?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Find me a perfect analyst, and you will not find him. As stated ridiculous amounts of times, all GM's are going to miss far more than hit. It is simply a matter of missing less. No one is saying on this end that I am perfect. I have certainly missed. At the same time, I have hit an awful lot.
.

Yeah? Prove it....
The reason for so much blowback is completely self created. You think you are something you are not. You have no record of your picks and your knowledge of football is at a remdial level compared to anyone that makes decisions that count. You relish the role as zone pseudo celebrity created by your draft analysis and thrive off the critiscm you get from fans angry at your low grades. If you didn't give a low grade would this thread be 15 pages and counting....

All that being said I actually appreciate your analysis because you don't watch film. You are like a gm and all the "media experts" are your scouts. You read a ton and gather info from all the sources. You take bits from Cosell, Mayock, Bob Mcginn's draft positional breakdown and many other sources and create your own opinion. It's informed and often quite useful for us civilians.

Thanks MadDog. It is fun to look back.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Let's face it, Singletary would have had the Dog "fixed."

If MD was GM back then he'd have had to take Mays in the first round, just to keep Singletary happy.

Seriously, its easy to criticize Baalke for picking Mays in the 4th back then, but I'm guessing that HC Singletary, the guy who ran VD off the field, could be pretty demanding on draft day--an its no secret that he wanted Mays.

On the other hand, post Singletary, Baalke wasted little time getting rid of Mays. That said everything about who's draft pick he really was.

A good GM also gets his coaches the players THEY want (yes, even you Singletary) as well centered around team needs and BPA at those positions...needless to say, Do-not-tell, Ron Jeremy, W-W-L and even Seely-Eyes and Tom BattleRham are VERY happy!

I think the problem MD is that you tend to gloat about a couple of times you made a good call ( Mays as an example) while seeming to pass over all the times you missed on the calls. Let's face it. You were dead wrong when it came to KEY players on the Niners. You would have Dalton instead of Kaepernick, Carriker instead of Patrick Willis, Blaine Gabbert would be a 49er, Navarro Bowman would not be a 49er, and Vernon Davis would be long gone.

You do a lot of work and make a lot of informative posts. However, you are not an analyst who has all of the tools that are necessary to really be effective. You do what most of us do ( albeit much more Im sure).............. look at the draft sites and look at UTube clips. Having no access to complete game tapes, medical records, player interviews, or background checks makes it impossible for anyone (even you) to ever be as successful as Baalke. Case in point is Jesse Williams. I'm sure you had no clue on how bad his medical records are.

Regardless, I have always believed the WZ is better with you here as you do provide a lot of information. I consider you to be a fan with a hobby that spends a lot of time on the draft. I also think its great to have an opinion on the draft. It just seems that if the Niners dont pick the guys you like they will always get a low grade from you.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Let's face it, Singletary would have had the Dog "fixed."

If MD was GM back then he'd have had to take Mays in the first round, just to keep Singletary happy.

Seriously, its easy to criticize Baalke for picking Mays in the 4th back then, but I'm guessing that HC Singletary, the guy who ran VD off the field, could be pretty demanding on draft day--an its no secret that he wanted Mays.

On the other hand, post Singletary, Baalke wasted little time getting rid of Mays. That said everything about who's draft pick he really was.

A good GM also gets his coaches the players THEY want (yes, even you Singletary) as well centered around team needs and BPA at those positions...needless to say, Do-not-tell, Ron Jeremy, W-W-L and even Seely-Eyes and Tom BattleRham are VERY happy!

Lol. Maybe that's the best way to "grade" a draft, if most of the coachs are happy with who they've got to work with.

The interesting thing, to me, was the way they got rid of Mays--sending out a fax and publicizing his availability. Very unusual, and I doubt it was aimed at Mays himself. Seems like a parting shot from Baalke to Singletary. ("This guy was such a bad choice, Mike, that we're willing to give him away.")

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by AmpLee:
I know it's been mentioned, but when grading our draft, one must factor in Boldin and McCoy. Aside from that, while picking up an extra 3 next year is fantastic, it's hard to put that into a current grade when it will be used to grade next year's draft as a draftee.

MD, I appreciate your effort, however, I get the sense you still think of Baalke as inadequate/lucky. I think you pin yourself to your prognostications to the effect that it doesn't allow you to consider any other perspective. There's no denying you arguably know more about these players than anyone on this board, but there's also no denying that our braintrust knows a whole of a heck of a lot more than the collective of this entire board does. They are simply privy to information we are not. That being said, any ribbing is in good nature and given your penchant for bold predictions, I'm sure there will be some in the future when this draft turns into an A.

I did not add the value of traded picks for veterans. Some do, and I completely get it. I tend to base the grade simply on the players selected, the value at the pick, etc. Everyone has their own grading system.

As for Baalke, I think he has been very good at the draft. We disagree on many player personnel choices, but to even hit on the same player at the same pick twice in this draft, with Carradine and Patton, shows that the planets do align every once in awhile.

To me, Baalke is a bit of a gambler, and I tend to be more conservative.

As for information, there is so much stuff on the internet from a wide variety of sources that the only deficiency I have is medicals. Character concerns become public knowledge, through writers and social media, the ability to interview well can be seen in interviews done by TV stations and with local and national writers, and performance on the field is easy to examine. I think the draft is becoming much easier for people on the outside to examine and make decent judgment calls.

you used the Ted Ginn trade in your evaluation of the 2010 draft

Ginn- "A" grade in trade. Ginn has to be included in the draft, since this is the value we receive for our fifth rounder. Ginn's best football is in front of him. He instantly eliminates our second most glaring need this offseason, and becomes our first deep threat at WR in a LONG time. I believe he assumes the number three WR role, and could even push Morgan (depending on Morgan's development).

Great Post MadDog. Like you I like to pretend I'm GM. After two years of watching Baalke/coaches/scouts draft I think I have a decent feel of the type of players they like. So this year I pretended to scout players through their eyes instead of what I thought. So I just wanted to go through the Reid pick on what I think the FO was thinking. I'm going to compare him to Vacarro.


I really believe they thought Reid was the #1 safety over Vaccaro. Out of all the safties in the draft he had the best height/weight/speed (long arms, 4.4 forty) and Baallke likes to draft players with these intagiblies that the coaches can coach up, he hits hard like Goldson. Vacorro hits hard too but Reid hits with more authority. Last he fits are scheme better than Vacarro. Vacarro is very good man saftey but we rarely ask are safties to play man because are front seven is so good. Reid is the better center field safety, but not by much, that can roam around and blow mother f--- up. This is going to be fun to watch this year.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I am pasting my draft from the past few years. This was embedded inside the Draft War Room Thread About Baalke and Harbaugh drafting ability.

Here was my last three drafts based on my board and team needs at each pick:2010 NFL Draft
1. Iupati (I graded him as the eighth best player in the draft...probably too low).
1. Dez Bryant
2. Morgan Burnett
3. Owusu-Ansah
6. Doug Worthington
6. Cody Davis
6. Jeff Owens
7. Dorin Dickerson

2011 NFL Draft: Here were my post draft notes I posted in the "Redo" thread (I did not trade for Kaepernick in this draft)
1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

2012 NFL Draft
1. Peter Konz
2. Mohammed Sanu
4. Malik Jackson
5. Vick Ballard
6. Antonio Allen
6. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work
7. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work

Recap analysis: I loved my first three picks in 2010. The rest have done little to nothing. In 2011, I hit the jackpot with Watt, but probably blew it with Kaepernick (I had faith in Harbaugh and Smith). I do love my fourth rounders through seventh from Cannon through Sanzenbacher. Missed on Hunter, but hit very well on Cannon, Taylor, Rogers, and especially Johnson, who has been terrific for the Seahawks. In 2012, I believe my draft will hold up well with Konz, Sanu and a studly Ballard leading the way. Once again, you hope to hit on as many as possible and some years turn out better than others.

People can debate the 2010 class, but I would probably give a slight nod to Baalke (The outstanding Bowman pick in the third made up for the disasterous pick of Mays), but I think Iupati, Bryant and Burnett made a strong draft class for me.

I think it is pretty obvious that Baalke's 2011 draft class beat mine so far (this class was a grand slam for him), even though I thought I performed much better than the street with Watt anchoring this class. The entire class made an NFL roster in 2011, except for Chinasa, and I love Jeron Johnson late in the 7th. He is a very good player for the Seahawks. Hudson has a ton of potential, but his injury killed off 2012. He will the man delivering to Alex Smith this year.

Based on the 2012 class, I think my draft is superior to far superior over Baalke's so far. Konz played almost the entire year, and will start this year at center. Mohammed, before going out with injury, had 4 TD's in his last three games. And, Vick Ballard was a monster, better than any selection from Baalke's 2012 class.

Now THIS is really putting yourself out there and I probably appreciate this more than anything.

Who else is willing to go back to their original picks and match up with Baalke and who we actually picked. How did you do? Granted these players may have failed with other teams but possibly would have been much better on OUR team over the past two-three years but this is about as close as you're going to get to playing a real GM re: the draft.

Who else is willing to match their mock's to Baalke? Man-up!

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Wait...I thought your "Big Board" was merely a reflection of where you thought players would be picked rather than your personal opinion of who the best player is. Can you clarify?

The Big Board is only a projection of where I believe a player will land, not a BPA board, or best pick for the Niners board. On my Big Board, I projected Jonathan Cooper to go 10th overall (he went 7th). However, on my BPA board, I ranked him number one.

Originally posted by natrone06:
Yeah? Prove it....
The reason for so much blowback is completely self created. You think you are something you are not. You have no record of your picks and your knowledge of football is at a remdial level compared to anyone that makes decisions that count. You relish the role as zone pseudo celebrity created by your draft analysis and thrive off the critiscm you get from fans angry at your low grades. If you didn't give a low grade would this thread be 15 pages and counting....

All that being said I actually appreciate your analysis because you don't watch film. You are like a gm and all the "media experts" are your scouts. You read a ton and gather info from all the sources. You take bits from Cosell, Mayock, Bob Mcginn's draft positional breakdown and many other sources and create your own opinion. It's informed and often quite useful for us civilians.

I think I have an excellent record examining the draft. You can come to your own conclusion if you look at my record over the years. Take a sample of teams and match their value and production with my draftees. I think you will believe differently.

While I hear some things and read some things, the vast bulk of my opinion comes from watching games, watching practice sessions, watching drills at the combine. I have my own thoughts. That is why I had a late second early third round grade on Vick Ballard last year, someone who was not well talked before the draft last year. I don't need someone to tell me whether a player is good or bad. I draw my own conclusions. That is why I had Bobby Wagner with mid-first round value last year, even though I don't believe another person on the planet felt the same way.

What I read is usually geared toward draft buzz on players rising and falling. This does help me construct an accurate Big Board. It does not alter my thoughts on a player.

Originally posted by valrod33:
you used the Ted Ginn trade in your evaluation of the 2010 draft

Ginn- "A" grade in trade. Ginn has to be included in the draft, since this is the value we receive for our fifth rounder. Ginn's best football is in front of him. He instantly eliminates our second most glaring need this offseason, and becomes our first deep threat at WR in a LONG time. I believe he assumes the number three WR role, and could even push Morgan (depending on Morgan's development).

My view has changed over the year about players added with picks. To me, it gets cloudy. I simply grade now on the individual selections, whether it is one choice in a draft or thirteen.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Wait...I thought your "Big Board" was merely a reflection of where you thought players would be picked rather than your personal opinion of who the best player is. Can you clarify?

The Big Board is only a projection of where I believe a player will land, not a BPA board, or best pick for the Niners board. On my Big Board, I projected Jonathan Cooper to go 10th overall (he went 7th). However, on my BPA board, I ranked him number one.

Did you post your BPA boards in previous years? I remember certain things in the context of conversation (like your fondness for JJ Watt, Gabbert, dislike of Mays, etc), but I don't remember you doing BPA boards in previous years the way that you did this year. Did you do that and I just missed it?