Originally posted by blm7754:
Uh, I didn't say anything about guarantees. I'm talking about positional value. So before you go all on me... let me try to explain what I'm talking about.
If you pick a safety in round 1 (or a ILB, TE, OG, etc), there is a very good chance that you will get at least an average quality NFL player. But the chance that you could have had somebody just as productive in rounds 2-4 is almost equally as high. Furthermore, the impact that guys at these positions have on the overall success of your football team is usually minimal. Give me the best CB, WR, or OLB in the league ANY DAY over the best S, TE, or ILB.
Are you with me so far....
Now, if you pick a DE/DT in round 1 (or a QB, CB, OT, WR, etc), there is a slightly higher bust potential than with a safer pick (like a safety)... a little more risk. But the potential impact that a quality player at one of those positions will have on your overall team success is higher. AND the chance that you could find a quality player at one of those positions in rounds 2-4 is MUCH lower compared to the safer picks.
Make sense? It's all about value.
If you draft a poor player, you obtain little or no value, and it makes no difference what:
1. position he plays
2. what the team's positional needs are
3. the general hierarchical ranking of positional value in the NFL
4. the statistically calculated risk factor of different positions.
The value obtained in the drafting a player derives directly from that player's desire, mental toughness and discipline, football skill set, and physical attributes and capabilities. .
Drafting Brian Jennings, our long snapper, brought more value to this team than the combined value of Jim Drunkenmiller, Kentwan Balmer, and or Rashaun Woods.
In simple terms, better players have more value. The better the player drafted, the more value obtained. That is the bottom line.
Of course, in the real world simple terms do not always work so well.
When drafting a player, we must also consider the team needs and how that player fits into the team's scheme.
We have four All Pro linebackers. So, even if the best player available when we draft at #31 is a linebacker, it would be somewhat foolish to take that linebacker.
Setting a team draft board is, in effect, determining the complex dynamic better player skill and team need.
Let's suppose that our team needs are: #1 free safety, #2 nose tackle, #3 defensive end, #4 tight end, .#5 wide receiver
When we have our pick at #31, it it certain that a player who plays these positions will be available.
If free safety is our most important need, should we just select the best safety available?
Before you answer, think about this: What if a player at a position of lesser need, say a tight end, is a much better player.
In my opinion, we should take the better player.
It is not complicated. We should draft the best player available at a position of need.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 22, 2013 at 5:11 PM ]